Following an exciting Week 16 around the NFL, the stage is set for the final week of the regular season. Seven playoff spots are up for grabs between both conferences with 11 teams still in contention. There are many scenarios possible all over the league. Fortunately, the Packers have already clinched their postseason ticket and will have a relatively stressless Week 17 against the Bears.
However, this game will still have some importance for the NFC playoff picture. The Packers simply need to win to clinch the #1 seed. Meanwhile, the Bears need a win themselves to clinch one of the remaining two wildcard spots.
Below we’ll lay out what the picture looks like now, some of the likely scenarios that could happen, and which one would be most favorable for the Packers.
What the Current Picture Looks Like
- Four teams have already clinched four of the seven NFC playoff spots: Packers, Saints, Seahawks, and Buccaneers.
- The Packers, Saints, and Seahawks have already clinched their respective division and home field advantage for their first playoff game. The three clubs are the only teams still eligible for the #1 seed.
- Although the Buccaneers did not win their division, they have already secured the best record of the three wild card spots. This automatically locks them into the #5 seed and they will play the winner of the NFC East on the road in the first round.
- There are three teams still eligible for the two remaining wild card spots: Bears, Rams, and Cardinals.
- There are three teams still eligible for the NFC East division title: Cowboys, Giants, and Washington. The division winner will be locked into the #4 seed while the remaining two teams will be ineligible for the postseason.
- Washington can clinch the NFC East with a victory over the Eagles on Sunday night. However, should they lose, the division title will go to the winner of the Cowboys/Giants game on Sunday afternoon.
- Whichever team wins the NFC East will be the first team with a losing record to make the playoffs since the 2015 Carolina Panthers went 7-8-1 and won the NFC South.
Possible Scenario #1
- Packers beat Bears
- Saints beat Panthers
- Seahawks beat 49ers
- Washington beats Eagles
- Cardinals beat Rams
Final Seeding & Playoff Matchups in this Scenario
- #1 Packers (BYE)
- #2 Saints vs #7 Rams
- #3 Seahawks vs #6 Cardinals
- #4 Washington vs #5 Buccaneers
This scenario happens by giving victories to teams currently favored by Vegas betting odds. It is the simplest and most favorable for the Packers – clinch the #1 seed by beating the Bears. It would give a wild card spot to the Rams and keep the Bears out of the playoffs should the Cardinals win.
After a bye week, the Packers would play the lowest seeded wild card winner in the division round. This would allow them to avoid the Saints and Seahawks until the NFC Championship game, but could also set up a possible rematch against the Buccaneers; a team that gave the Packers their worse loss of the season in their Week 6 matchup.
Possible Scenario #2
- Bears beat Packers
- Saints beat Panthers
- 49ers beat Seahawks
- Washington beats Eagles
- Rams beat Cardinals
Final Seeding & Playoff Matchups in this Scenario
- #1 Packers (BYE)
- #2 Saints vs #7 Bears
- #3 Seahawks vs #6 Rams
- #4 Washington vs #5 Buccaneers
This scenario is one of the few that still gives the #1 seed to the Packers despite a loss. If they and the Seahawks both lose, it would set up a two-way tie for the #1 seed between the Packers and Saints. Packers hold the tiebreaker in that scenario after beating the Saints earlier in the season. This shows the Packers aren’t in a “must win” situation, but would rely on the 49ers to win – a team that has already been eliminated and has nothing to play for.
This scenario has a lot of the same playoff matchups as scenario #1. It gives the Packers the bye and another situation where they avoid the Saints and Seahawks in the division round. However, it allows the Bears to sneak into the playoffs in the #7 seed (whether or not they can beat the Saints on the road is discussion for another day).
Possible Week 17 Scenario #3
- Bears beat Packers
- Saints beat Panthers
- Seahawks beat 49ers
- Washington beats Eagles
- Cardinals beat Rams
Final Seeding & Playoff Matchups in this Scenario
- #1 Saints (BYE)
- #2 Seahawks vs #7 Cardinals
- #3 Packers vs #6 Bears
- #4 Washington vs #5 Buccaneers
This is the worst-case scenario for the Packers. It sees them slipping to the #3 seed if they lose and the Saints and Seahawks both win. Because of the NFL’s tie-breaking procedures, it’s important to note that the Packers hold the tiebreaker in a two-way tie with the Saints, but the Saints hold the tiebreaker in a three-way tie when adding in the Seahawks.
The most intriguing thing about this scenario is that it would set up back-to-back games against the Bears. While the Bears could hold a slightly perceived edge after beating the Packers in week 17, the Packers would still benefit from a home playoff game at Lambeau. However, home field advantage may only last for one round, as they would have to potentially face the Seahawks and/or Saints on the in the road in following roads pending wins by both teams.
The above three scenarios are only a small handful of the many that are likely in the NFC. Regardless of what turns out, drama is sure to be had on the final day of the regular season. To add to the excitement, the NFL scheduled the majority of NFC games into the 4:25 PM EST slate meaning plenty of fans will be scoreboard watching throughout the evening.
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