After doing a pre-deadline breakdown of teams the Milwaukee Bucks are hoping to avoid in the playoffs, I expected this one to be much different. The early rounds will be but not for the reason I expected. The western conference loaded up at the trade deadline. The eastern conference, not so much. A couple teams made some needed depth moves but there weren’t any true needle moving trades. The reason for any changes in the two articles is simple, teams aren’t playing the same way they were 3 weeks ago.
With the Bucks solidly in the second spot in the conference standings and first place not far off, I’ll be planning for teams that would fit in as opponents in the playoff bracket. The play-in games add a slew of teams to the first round equation. The first round is all about getting the job done as quickly as possible. As the playoffs move on, it becomes a battle of star power. At the conclusion of the playoffs, it’s all about matchups. What teams make this the most difficult for the Bucks?
First Round
Previous team to avoid: Indiana Pacers
Updated team to avoid: Miami Heat
In hindsight, picking the Pacers as the team to avoid looks bad. They have struggled for a couple of weeks and are currently out of the play-in discussion. With that said, a lot of that early on had to do with the injury to their star Tyrese Haliburton. Since he’s been back, their defense has been atrocious. As exciting as the Pacers could be in a year or two, they don’t appear to be a team to fear in 2023.
The Miami Heat on the other hand, may very well be a team the Bucks are hoping to avoid. My previous write up about this listed a lot of unknowns as to why I was hoping to avoid the Pacers. They are a young and exciting team, but inevitably didn’t think the Bucks had to worry at all about losing. I still don’t think the Bucks have to worry about losing to the Heat but the series would be significantly different.
Winning the series 4-0 against the Pacers is much different than 4-0 against the Heat. Every game would likely be a grind and considerably more physical. Instead of the potential of blowing the doors off of their opponent, the Bucks would have to exert extra effort physically and mentally. The Heat also have the ability to push the series to 6 games if they are making shots.
They have a very seasoned team with Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo leading the way. They also have the young potential in Wisconsin native Tyler Herro. Finally, they have a couple of streaky three point shooters in Caleb Martin and Max Strus. Even though this team doesn’t have the fire power to keep up with the Bucks over a 7 game series, they have the grit and toughness to grind out a win or two. Having to play an extra game or two, which would likely be slug fests, can make a difference down the road.
Second Round
Previous team to avoid: Cleveland Cavaliers.
New team to avoid: Cleveland Cavaliers
This team could very well be the 76er’s, but that matchup doesn’t worry me as much as Cleveland. Embiid is the best player on either team but having him out there would allow the Bucks to have their most dangerous lineup on the court consistently with Brook Lopez. Cleveland is a bit more versatile in the types of lineups they can throw at you.
Even though Jarrett Allen is the Cavs normal center, they also have 7 footer Evan Mobley in the starting lineup at power forward. Although they can play with two bigs out there at one time, it’s their ability to stagger them and have multiple small ball lineups that makes them dangerous. Having major playmakers at multiple positions allows them to matchup in ways most teams can’t. They also have guards that can put up points in a hurry in Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland.
Cleveland has the ability to grind out wins with one of the best, if not the best, defense in the NBA. They also have an offense capable of putting up points in a hurry. If there is one knock on the Cavs, it’s their lack of consistent shooting. Mitchell is a volume scorer and if he’s off, they have to find other places for offense. They flow so much better when he is able to create on his own and open up space for the rest.
The Cavs also don’t have amazing depth. Getting Ricky Rubio healthy and up to speed has been helpful and Caris LeVert can come off the bench and score in bunches. Outside of that though, they are relying on players that aren’t known for their offense. Adding Danny Green after he was bought out was a smart move as he brings valuable post season experience, but he doesn’t move the needle.
If this matchup happens, I fully expect the Bucks to win the series in 6 games or less. The problems could start if one of the Bucks big 3 aren’t healthy. The Cavs can put lineups out there to neutralize Brook Lopez and the list of reliable scorers below him is virtually empty. Health is always key in the playoffs but really starts to come into play in round two.
Conference Finals
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Previous team to avoid: Celtics
New team to avoid: Celtics
As expected, this one didn’t change. Boston has been the best team in the East virtually all season. They have star power in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, they have valuable depth pieces in Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White and players like Marcus Smart and Al Horford that bring experience and defensive versatility. Not deep enough for you? They also have dangerous shooters in Sam Hauser and Mike Muscala along with defensive specialist Grant Williams.
I don’t put much stock in regular season games, but the close win over Boston’s bench Tuesday night shows how deep they are. I think it says more about the depth of the Celtics than the potential of the Bucks as it looked like the effort was lacking a bit for Milwaukee. Either way, this team has been constructed to win in the playoffs. They don’t rely on one player, they move the ball on offense and play connected on defense.
If there was any area of concern for Boston, it could be lack of size. Robert Williams III is their starting center but we’ve seen Boston stay away from him in matchups against the Bucks. They prefer to go with a smaller lineup that has shooters all over the floor. Their speed and strength on defense allows them to collapse on Giannis as well so he isn’t able to dominate inside.
For the Bucks to consistently find success on offense, they need Giannis to find open shooters and for them to knock the shots down. Defensively, Milwaukee needs to limit dribble penetration and stick with the outside shooters. All of this is easier said than done but the Bucks pushed Boston to 7 games last season in the playoffs and that was without Khris Middleton. Both teams are in better shape now, and the addition of Jae Crowder could pay major dividends in a Boston series.
When all is said and done, I think the Bucks pull out this series. The addition of Crowder adds major defensive versatility, toughness and spot up shooting. If it doesn’t go to 7 games either way, I’d be shocked. These are arguably the two best teams in the league and it’s a shame they would meet before the finals.
Finals
I didn’t include the finals last time but wanted to add it in now that all of the dust has settled. I truly think the Bucks toughest matchup of the playoffs is Boston. They matchup so well against Milwaukee and have the offensive depth to consistently score points. With that said, the West has a ton of talent. Memphis started fast but has slowed down. The Kings are up and coming. The Clippers have the experience and talent to make the finals. The Suns made the biggest trade deadline splash by trading for KD.
With all of that said, the Nuggets are the team I don’t want to see the Bucks play. Even though many would put Phoenix here, I don’t think they have the depth or defensive ability to stick with the Bucks for a 7 game series. Sure they can score, but it takes so much more than that to win a championship. The Nuggets while not overly deep, have the star power and versatility to cause the Bucks issues.
The conversation starts with the joker. Jokic is the back to back league MVP for a reason and has been incredible again this year. He’s averaging a triple double and has carried the load while his team has battled injuries. He doesn’t have the greatest playoff track record, but he also hasn’t had a healthy team. A healthy Jamal Murray makes this team exponentially more dangerous His ability to shoot lights out while being a secondary distributor takes pressure off Jokic.
We also can’t overlook the resurgence of Aaron Gordon. He’s been scoring at a good clip and has been a reliable sources of rebounds. His ability to shoot from outside opens up even more space for Murray and Jokic to operate. Add in a healthy Michael Porter Jr. and Denver is loaded with offensive potential. Jokic can score and distribute from anywhere on the floor and has multiple 39% 3 point shooters around him. The driving ability of Murray and Gordon makes it difficult to sell out to stop the 3 ball as well.
The Denver defense isn’t amazing but they do enough to supplement a dynamic offense. If Reggie Jackson, Bruce Brown and Jeff Green can provide valuable minutes when called on, it really just comes down to how many stops the Nuggets can string together. Jokic isn’t a great defender but Denver has length and strength from other positions that can help out to slow down a player like Giannis.
In the end, I think the Bucks would be able to win this series. They have very good depth and can win due to their offense or defense. They have lineups that can score and lineups that can shut you down. There isn’t a team in the NBA that can match the versatility and depth of the Bucks this season. The playmaking ability of Ingles will be huge in the playoffs. Bobby’s ability to be a spark plug off the bench is always key. Crowder and Carter can be terrors on defense. All of this is on top of Jrue, Khris and Giannis leading the way.
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