The Milwaukee Brewers (77-62) and the New York Yankees (70-70) will begin a three-game set on Friday night. Milwaukee is 5-5 in their last ten games and will look to bounce back after dropping two of three against the Pirates to start the week. Meanwhile, New York, led by their youth movement, has won eight of their previous ten contests. Below, I will highlight the best betting options heading into this epic interleague matchup.
Brewers vs. Yankees Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Money Line |
| Brewers | -1.5 (+145) | Over 9 (-115) | -112 |
| Yankees | +1.5 (-175) | Under 9 (-105) | -108 |
Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Brewers vs. Yankees Start ‘Em
Mark Canha o1.5 H/R/RBI (-110)
Th
e newly acquired Canha has made a strong impression in his first 31 games with the Brew Crew. The 34-year-old is hitting .305 and slugging .457 since being traded from the Mets on the last day of July. More importantly, the outfielder is hitting a laughable .450 with a .700 slug over the past seven days.
Pair that with a career 2-for-8 with a home run and a double against Yankees’ starter Luis Severino, and Canha is in line for a big day at the plate in Friday’s series opener.
William Contreras o1.5 TB (+125)
Another red-hot bat in the Brewers’ lineup will be catcher William Contreras. The younger of the two Contreras brothers, William is having a monster year, owning a .814 OPS and 3.0 WAR heading into Friday’s tilt with the Bronx Bombers. Since an August 18 game against the Rangers, the backstop is hitting .333 with a .571 slugging percentage in 62 at-bats. Impressively, Contreras has gone hitless just once during that span.
The RBI count has stalled to start September, but I like Contreras to make loud contact against the Yankees, especially starter Luis Severino, on Friday night.
DJ LeMahieu o1.5 H/R/RBI (+135)
In an ideal world, the Brewers’ Colin Rea will shove against the Yankees, but recent results hint towards mediocre results at best. After a six-inning, two-run effort against the Reds in late July, Rea allowed 13 runs on 16 hits in his next three starts combined. He also had a stint at AAA Nashville, allowing five runs over 11 innings.
The hope is Rea can keep the Brewers in this game, but that doesn’t mean a guy like DJ LeMahieu, who is 2-for-2 against the righty and slugging .660 over the last 14 days, won’t do damage.
Brewers vs. Yankees Sit ‘Em
Luis Severino 02.5 ER (-110)
Luis Severino has owned a 2.91 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the past 28 days. What makes this unintimidating isn’t his 6.75 ERA on the season or his -1.6 WAR, but his splits against teams under .500 compared to teams equal to or above .500. The two-time All-Star is 3-2 with a 472 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 47.2 innings against teams under .500 this season. However, Severino sports a dreadful 1-6 record with a 9.32 ERA and 2.04 WHIP against teams equal to or above .500 in 2023.
Those splits are not just drastic but also music to the ears of the Brewer faithful. Severino does have a higher k/9 against stiffer competition, but his outings are far shorter. For Severino, it’s not necessarily the hits or walks but the hard contact that gets him in trouble. I expect Milwaukee to tag him for more than a few runs before the book closes on Severino on Friday.
Austin Wells u1.5 H/R/RBI (-145)
Wells, the #94 prospect heading into the season per Baseball America, is just four games into his MLB Career. However, he has accumulated just two hits, two RBI, and a run in 16 plate appearances. He is undoubtedly a good hitter, posting a .856 OPS in three minor league seasons, but more often than not, it takes these youngsters time to adjust to the best talent in the world.
The belief around baseball is Wells will become a vital part of the Yankees’ plans in the future, but until he gets rolling, he is an auto-fade to me. The catcher has gone over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI just once in his four starts.
Sleeper Pick
Mark Canha HR (+750)
Over 71 at-bats, Canha has a career .772 OPS and two bombs at Yankee Stadium. So if he has good numbers at Yankee Stadium, hits Luis Severino well, AND is on fire, why not throw a little coin on him going deep? The odds are sexy enough that it might just be worth taking.
Fade of the Game
Starting Pitching
Fade the starting pitching. Whether it’s taking the over, playing pitcher props, or just leveling expectations, I expect neither starter to fair well on Friday. Although the Yankees’ Severino has been more hit than miss over the past month, he still struggles mightily against stiff competition. The Brewers lead the National League Central for a reason, and I expect their lineup to become another speedbump for the Yankees starter in 2023.
Meanwhile, Colin Rea also has his shortcomings heading into this interleague tilt. I hope he doesn’t get run out of the building, but I wouldn’t expect a Ben Sheets-esque performance, either.
