A lot of money was shelled out at Winter Meetings this year. $1.6 billion to be exact. Players like Aaron Judge, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and many others landed big contracts. Of the free agent shortstop class, both Trae Turner and Xander Bogaerts got massive pay days. Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson have not signed yet. With the Brewers reportedly in talks with extending their shortstop Willy Adames, how does Turner’s and Bogaert’s contracts impact a potential Adames extension?
Tim Muma at Brewers fanatic had a fantastic breakdown that shows how Adames’ numbers compare to both Turner and Bogaerts. Shortly, over the past two years Adames has posted a .785 OPS, 114 wRC+, 8.0 fWAR, and 10 DRS. Turner is at .858 OPS, 135 wRC+, 13.1 fWAR, and 0 DRS. Bogaerts is at .848 OPS, 132 wRC+, 10.4 fWAR, and 0 DRS.
Based on the above mentioned numbers, Adames trails both Turner and Bogaerts in all of the offensive categories but is significantly better defensively. Age wise, Adames is younger than both Turner and Bogaerts. He is also under club control for two more seasons. If no extension is signed, he would hit free agency at age 29.
What would an Adames contract extension look like when compared to Turner and Bogaerts?
Both Turner and Bogaerts signed 11 year contracts. Turner’s average annual value is $27.3MM and Bogaerts $25.5MM. The Brewers likely would not hand out 11 years to Adames, which means he likely could see an AAV around the same $25-27MM range.
Realistically, the Brewers would want to extend Adames through his prime years. A six year extension would lock up Adames through his age 32-season. At an estimated AAV of $25-27MM Adames would then earn anywhere from $150-162MM.
The Brewers do not have to extend Adames this offseason. However, if he performs well again next season his market value could increase. We will have to wait and see if an extension occurs or not.
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