The Green Bay Packers outperformed expectations in 2023. The team became the youngest team in the NFL to make the playoffs and went on to upset the NFC East-winning Dallas Cowboys.
It’s safe to say that the impressive season has raised expectations for 2024. At first glance, the team looks to be in a rough cap situation. Per Over The Cap, the Packers are about $5M over the expected salary cap. However, as we documented, the team has some easy ways to free up a ton of cap space if needed.
Luckily, the Packers do not have to worry about any star players leaving in free agency this offseason. Keisean Nixon, Yosh Nijman, Darnell Savage, and AJ Dillon are the most notable Packers headed for the open market.
Dillon is an interesting case. The young back at one point appeared poised to take over the backfield for Aaron Jones. Instead, Jones has remained a focal point of the Packer offense and Dillon has failed to deliver on his potential. Dillon racked up 803 rushing yards and 34 receptions in 2021 but has dropped significanly in both categories in each season since.
With Dillon heading to free agency and Jones getting another year older, the team could look to add a capable back this offseason. Spotrac expects Dillon to land a modest $3.5M deal annually, but the Packers could decide to invest elsewhere. Let’s identify three possible Dillon replacements that the Packers could bring in this offseason.
Derrick Henry is the ultimate AJ Dillon replacement
Derrick Henry has been one of the best running backs in the league for years now. The Alabama product has solidified himself as one of the best power backs in the league in recent memory. Since 2018, Henry has had at least 1,000 yards in every seasin exceot 2021 when he only played in 8 games due to injury.
Henry is expected to move on from the Titans after eight seasons. The Titans are going through a coaching and a philosophy change and are thought to be reluctant to spend on the 30-year old Henry. Yes, Henry is 30, but he showed he still has plenty left in the tank in 2023 when he collected 1,167 yards and 12 rushing TDs.
Spotrac projects Henry to land $10M per year on a short-term deal. The bruising Henry is what fans hoped Dillon would turn out to be and would be a perfect complement to Aaron Jones. If the Pack want a short-term boost to the offense, look no further than Henry.
D’Onta Foreman is a low-risk option
D’Onta Foreman had a down year with the Chicago Bears in 2023. The veteran bruiser rumbled for 425 yards and 4 rushing TDs. However, Foreman has shown in the past that he can be a starting-caliber back, and especially a solid timeshare back.
Foreman had 914 yards with the Carolina Panthers in 2022 after taking over when Christian McCaffrey was traded. In 2021, Foreman 566 yards while spelling the injured Derrick Henry in Tennessee. Foreman is younger than Henry and would be much cheaper with Spotrac projecting the back to land $3M annually.
Foreman wouldn’t be the flashiest signing but he would be a low-risk, high-reward back. The veteran is not a receiving threat but he would be a great third-down back and could spell Aaron Jones when needed.
Audric Estime could be better than AJ Dillon
Audric Estime capitalized on an impressive 2022 season with an even better 2023 season. The Notre Dame back racked up 1,341 rushing yards with 18 TDs on the ground in 2023. The back also caught 17 passes for 142 yards for the Fighting Irish.
Estime is projected to be a 2nd or 3rd round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Packers currently have two 2nd-round picks and two 3rd-round picks, so the team could be in prime position to land Estime. Estime could slide into the Dillon role as a talented downhill runner and a guy that is great at picking up yards after contact.
Estime is quicker than Dillon as well and has the burst to hit holes and can help out in the passing game. In a weak RB class, Estime is a high-floor option who may be an immediate improvement over Dillon.