The Green Bay Packers will be relying on Christian Watson and other young wide receivers to help first-year starting quarterback Jordan Love make the transition from future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers a seamless one. For month, fans and analysts alike have pointed to Watson as a key player in what will be the Packers’ new-look offense.
Of course, the standard for wide receivers in the NFC North, currently, is Minnesota Vikings star Justin Jefferson. Entering his fourth year, Jefferson has already been named to three Pro Bowls, been named Second Team All Pro twice, First Team All Pro once, and was the NFL Offensive Player of the Year last season.
Jefferson’s 2022 season was one of the best for a wide receiver in NFL history. He had 128 receptions for 1,809 yards and eight touchdowns. Will Watson be able to put up these kinds of numbers in 2023, or ever in his career with the Packers? The team and their fans should hope that he does not have to.
Justin Jefferson Was a Major Part of the Minnesota Vikings’ Offense
Jefferson’s eye-popping 2023 statistics have already been mentioned. However, in addition to these, Jefferson also was targeted 184 times and led the NFL with 106.4 receiving yards per game (his receptions and yards totals also led the league).
The Vikings, of course, went 13-4 and won the NFC North. However, they were made quick work of in the NFL Playoffs. For all that production, Minnesota (once again) had nothing to show for it save for another occasional division crown.
Having 1 Wide Receiver Dominate Targets and Receptions Does Not Necessarily Lead to Success
What makes Jefferson such a great player is that opposing defenses know that he is going to get 10+ targets per game, yet they are unable to stop him. However, in the NFL, it takes one crucial stop in a close game, or one off day by a quarterback or receiver for disaster to take place.
The NFL Playoffs also feature the league’s best defenses who are not so easily intimidated or take advantage of. In the Vikings’ loss to the New York Giants in the NFC Divisional Round, Jefferson had seven receptions for 47 yards, far from the level of production he had during the regular season.
The Packers, too, have experienced what happens when a quarterback relies on a wide receiver at an extraordinary level during the regular season, just to have the duo fall short in the Playoffs.
In 2021, Davante Adams had 123 receptions for 1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns. He accomplished these incredible stats while garnering 169 targets from Aaron Rodgers (and Jordan Love in his lone start against Kansas City).
Below is a table that compares the number of targets players from the 2022 Vikings and 2021 Packers received (top nine targets from each team):
Passing Targets | |
2022 Vikings | 2021 Packers |
Justin Jefferson (WR)- 184 | Davante Adams (WR)- 169 |
Adam Theilen (WR)- 107 | Aaron Jones (RB)- 65 |
K.J. Osborn (WR)- 90 | Allen Lazard (WR)- 60 |
T.J. Hockensen (TE)- 86 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR)- 55 |
Dalvin Cook (RB)- 56 | Randall Cobb (WR)- 39 |
Irv Smith Jr. (TE)- 36 | AJ Dillon (RB)- 37 |
Johnny Mundt (TE)- 21 | Josiah Deguara (TE)- 33 |
Alexander Mattison (RB)- 18 | Robert Tonyan (TE)- 29 |
Jalen Reagor (WR)- 13 | Marcedes Lewis (TE)- 28 |
Jalen Nailor (WR)- 13 | Equanimeous St. Brown (WR)- 17 |
Obviously, Vikings players had more targets than the Packers players, largely in part to the fact that Minnesota attempted 641 passing plays while the 2021 Packers attempted 570. The similarity, though, is that both Jefferson and Adams accounted for 29% of their team’s targets.
Of course, the other similarity (not depicted) is that both teams exited in the first round of the NFL Playoffs.
The Past 10 Super Bowl Winners’ Top Receiving Targets
Interestingly, each of the past 10 Super Bowl winners’ top receiving target almost always had less than 29% of his team’s receiving targets:
- 2022- Travis Kelce (Chiefs): 25%
- 2021- Cooper Kupp (Rams): 31%
- 2020- Mike Evans (Buccaneers): 18%
- 2019- Travis Kelce (Chiefs): 24%
- 2018- James White (Patriots): 22%
- 2017- Alshon Jeffery (Eagles): 22%
- 2016-Julian Edelman (Patriots): 29%
- 2015- Demaryius Thomas (Broncos): 29%
- 2014- Julian Edelman (Patriots): 22%
- 2013- Golden Tate (Seahawks): 24%
By the way, when the Packers won Super Bowl XLV, their leader in receiving targets was Greg Jennings (125), who received 23% of them.
As seen above, only three times in the last 10 years has a team whose most-targeted receiver had 29% or more of his team’s targets won the Super Bowl. Having an offense that is so dominated and dependent on one player has been a recipe for failure more often than not.
The Green Bay Packers Need Christian Watson to Be Part of a Well-Balanced Offense
Which brings us back to Watson and the 2023 Green Bay Packers. Let’s be quite honest: it is highly unlikely that Watson, or any Packers wide receiver, puts up Jefferson-like numbers in 2023 or any season in the near future. However, as seen and discussed above, the Packers should hope they don’t need to.
Watson, Romeo Doubs, and the other young Packers pass catchers need to all be reliable targets in the passing game. If they are, Green Bay’s well-balanced offense will set it above top-heavy offenses like the one in Minnesota.
At the end of the day, stats mean nothing if a Lombardi Trophy does not accompany them. Watson and the Packers would certainly settle for less impressive stats than Jefferson as long as they see more team success.
And they will.
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