Brewers fans, I’d like to apologize. I had been extremely optimistic about this season before it started, during the hot start, and even during the drought a couple of weeks ago. I felt as though the front office had made smart, under-the-radar moves that would help this team’s depth and overall ceiling. That was the case for about 2.5 weeks to start the season, but it has been a rollercoaster since then.
Sure, injuries have played a huge part in the lack of consistency. With hitters Garrett Mitchell, Tyrone Taylor, Luis Urias, and Jesse Winker all dealing with injuries at one time or another, the offense has struggled. The injuries don’t stop on offense either as pitchers Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Ashby, Wade Miley, Adrian Houser, and Eric Lauer have all dealt with injuries with most of them being lengthy.
Of those nine players listed with injuries, two of them are likely done for the year with a third out for at least half of the season, even more if you include rehab time. The Milwaukee Brewers have done well to stay at or near the top of the division considering the adversity they’ve faced but that appears to be more of a sign of a sub-par division than the Brewers playing well.
Can the Milwaukee Brewers Win the Division?
The N.L. Central has been a pillow fight so far this season. The Pittsburgh Pirates, who are in full-fledged rebuild mode, are leading the division with a 34-32 record at the time of writing this. The pre-season favorite, St. Louis, is currently in last with a 27-42 record. To put it simply, this has been one of, if not the worst division in baseball to this point in the season.
The answer is 100% yes, the Brewers can win this division. That goal does appear to be fool’s gold though. Injuries have been a major factor as to why this team has been inconsistent. With that said the healthy players haven’t been very good either.
Willy Adames, Brian Anderson, Joey Wiemer, and William Contreras have underwhelmed after solid starts. Luke Voit struggled to the point of being designated for assignment. Brice Turang had to be sent down to the minors to work on his game. Overall, this team just lacks proven talent. It’s not all bad as Christian Yelich has looked his best since the knee cap injury a few years ago.
The addition of Julio Teheran to the rotation has been huge but his 1.48 ERA through 24 innings has coincided with Freddy Peralta struggling. The starting rotation was supposed to be the strength of this team and instead has been a rotating door of injured players.
The short answer is yes, the Milwaukee Brewers can win their division and make the playoffs. That leads to another question. Is this team good enough to win in the playoffs? If Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta are healthy and pitching well, anything is possible. The offense will never be a juggernaut but could do enough if the rotation gets hot. With that said, the Brewer’s roster doesn’t stack up well against potential playoff opponents.
Are the Playoffs Good Enough?
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The Milwaukee Brewers franchise has been a consistent presence in the playoffs since 2018. As great as it has been to see them in the post-season consistently, they have only won one series over that period and that was in 2018. Since then, they’ve lost twice in the wild-card round and once in the divisional round.
We’ve consistently seen a solid to good regular season team that just doesn’t have the top-end talent to beat the best teams in the league in a series. Between questionable player development and a lack of spending on proven talent, the organization appears to have reached its ceiling with the current core.
Getting to the playoffs is great and there are a lot of organizations that haven’t been fortunate enough to compete in them in recent memory. With that said, small market teams need to maximize their opportunities. Looking back at the last 15 World Series Champions, there is only one that is considered a small market team. The 2015 Kansas City Royals made magic happen with great prospect timing, smart front-office moves, and optimizing the talent they had.
The Milwaukee Brewers have seen similar trends in terms of prospect cores helping the franchise make playoff pushes, but they have continually fallen short of the main goal. In 2008, we saw a core of Hart, Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, and Sheets lead the team to a playoff appearance. They were back again in 2011 with a similar offensive core but armed with a rotation with much more prominent names.
With the most recent competitive stretch, pitchers have been the main pieces of the exciting young core. Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta, Hader, and Williams have been crucial at different times over the last 4 to 5 seasons while the organization has struggled to develop consistent offensive pieces. The trade for Yelich paid immediate dividends but things have taken a turn for the worst since the franchise committed long-term.
Now the Milwaukee Brewers find themselves in an awkward spot as the current team likely isn’t good enough to make a playoff run. Their core players are also rapidly approaching free agency and have priced themselves out of the Brewer’s small market budget.
All Signs Point to a Rebuild
For a franchise that relies on players on rookie contracts to make an impact, decisions are going to have to be made very soon. Those arbitration years go by quickly for players that outperform their salaries and we saw the first domino fall last season with Josh Hader. Although there are plenty of reasons why that trade made sense, even if it angered the fans, it could be a sign of what’s to come.
The Brewers have 3 players on rookie contracts that will warrant big money on the open market. Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames will all be free agents after the 2024 season and it’s not likely the Brewers will be able to outbid other suiters. It also doesn’t sound like the franchise has made much of an effort, if any at all, to try and extend these guys early. Two ace-level pitchers and a shortstop with power bring a huge price tag.
This is very common across professional baseball in general but has a bigger impact on small-market teams. Small market franchises needed to decide if the core can make a post-season run, or if it makes more sense to trade high-end assets to help set the team up for the future. For the Brewers, the evidence would lead us to believe this core won’t make a post-season run.
Fans, insiders, and reporters can debate all day about this roster and if they have what it takes to win in October. What we can all agree on is it’s not as good as the 2018 or 2021 editions that won the division and failed to make it to the World Series. Does it make sense to hope for the best this season, go through the arbitration process again next season, and hope the inexpensive flyers hit? That’s debatable.
As much as it hurts to admit, this franchise is better off selling and loading up for another run in a few years. The Milwaukee Brewers have some major trade assets if the concern is losing them in free agency for free. If you add on a dominant bullpen arm in Devin Williams and a potent starter signed to a great contract in Peralta, the farm system could get a huge boost.
I will get into potential returns and trade partners in a different article but this roster doesn’t look set up to make a playoff run any time soon. There is potential for a new exciting core with Wiemer, Mitchell, and Turang showing flashes at the major league level. If Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, and Jacob Misiorowski reach their ceilings, this franchise will have a ton of young talent to work with.
Selling off high-end major league talent is scary and hard to justify to the fans, but it makes sense for a franchise that has proven they aren’t willing to spend money. The returns for the players mentioned above would be huge which would add to an already talented farm system. If the goal is to win a World Series( which it always should be), the front office and ownership need to make the smart decision, even if it isn’t fun.
This core appears to have run its course and unfortunately, there just wasn’t enough young, controllable talent apart of it. The best chance at having a wave of prospects make it to the MLB level with impact players on offense and in the rotation is to sell the proven talent this team has now.
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