Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur is the best decisionmaker in the NFL when it comes to fourth down.
Now in his fifth year, LaFleur has been the NFL’s best fourth-down coach over the last two seasons, based on an analysis by football analytics company Sports Info SIS. The company, which provides data for analysts and the gambling industry, looked at all NFL coaches’ fourth-down decisions—whether to kick or go for it—and ranked them based on expected win probability added on the play.
- Based on their numbers, LaFleur made the correct fourth down call 65 percent of the time, which was tied with the Cincinnati Bengals Zac Taylor for the highest rate in the NFL. Here were the coaches who got it right more than 60% of the time.
- Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers 65%
- Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals 65%
- Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills 63%
- Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans 62%
- Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions 62%
- Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles 61%
Former Packers coach Mike McCarthy, now coaching the Dallas Cowboys, just missed making the 60 Percent Club, making the correct call 59 percent of the time over the last two seasons.
The rankings were based on WPA, which stands for win probability added, but actually, LaFleur just reduced his team’s win probability by the lowest amount, which is what put him at the top of the list.
- Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers -0.6% WPA
- Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles -0.6%
- Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills -0.7%
- Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans -0.7%
- Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys -0.7%
- Frank Reich, Carolina Panthers -0.7%
- Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears -0.7%
- Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams -0.7%
- Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals -0.8%
- Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions -0.8%
LaFleur will face four of the other coaches in the top 10 in a total of six games this season. The Packers play Eberflus’ Bears on the road in Week One and at home in Week 18. The get Campbell’s Lions at Lambeau in Week Four and in Detroit Week 12. Out of the division, LaFleur and Green Bay host the Rams in Week Nine and play at the Panthers in Week 16.
Lesson Learned by Matt LaFleur
It’s possible LaFleur took a lesson from the NFC Championship Game following the 2020 season, when a late decision to kick a field goal backfired. LaFleur opted not to give Aaron Rodgers one more play near the goal line to find the end zone and instead kicked, narrowing Tampa Bay’s lead to 31-26. The defense couldn’t stop Tampa, however, and the Packers never got the ball back. Analytics indicated that the decision was a poor one, costing about 3% of winning probability. The Bucs won the game, then went on to win the Super Bowl.
Since then, he’s been the NFL’s best at avoiding doing damage to his team with his decisionmaking.
Which coaches make the right calls on forth downs most often? Our friends at @SportsInfo_SIS dug into the data to find out 🔢 pic.twitter.com/fzYnTcU2WN
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) September 5, 2023
