The start of the Wisconsin men’s basketball season has been better then even the most optimistic followers could have predicted. With a win over 12th ranked Houston, handing Texas A&M their only loss of the season and beating a solid St. Mary’s team, Wisconsin has overachieved so far this season.
So far, their only blemish is a loss to a Providence team that is currently tied for 1st in the Big East while Wisconsin played without their best player. No matter how you spin it, this team has exceeded expectation and projections.
This team has shown enough promise that we no longer have to be happy about just surpassing the experts projections, instead thinking about the kind of success that is realistic for this squad based on the 8 games that we’ve seen.
Offense
As we’ve seen with Badger’s teams past, they were quite reliant on the 3 ball. Part of that was because of their offensive system, but also because they lacked players that could create off the dribble. This season, it appears they have multiple players that can attack to either create their own shot, or create great looks for teammates.
After years and years of very veteran teams, this is the first squad in what seems like forever that the starting lineup and rotational players are mostly underclassman. Outside of elder statesman Brad Davidson, only 1 of the other top 5 scorers for the Badgers above a sophomore is junior Tyler Wahl.
The youth movement that so many thought would cripple this Badgers team with growing pains, has ended up being a blessing. Johnny Davis has blossomed into the star many Badger fans thought he would be after a promising freshman season. Chucky Hepburn and Lorne Bowman II have been defensive stars but have shown the ability to create off the dribble, finish through contact and make open 3’s as well.
Big man Steven Crowl has been a +/- wonder so far, showing the ability to score inside and out while playing great defense. If Carter Gilmore and Ben Carlson find their offensive footing, there aren’t many holes on the team offensively.
The slow pace we have known (and I’m sure some loved) for decades is still there, however we’ve seen the ability to play faster thanks to the athleticism of Johnny Davis. The offense also isn’t limited to just passing the ball around the perimeter with multiple players that can penetrate and cause issues for the defense.
The ceiling
The offense this season should be more well rounded then we’ve seen since the Dekker, Kaminsky, Gasser days. Things will get a bit tougher with Big 10 play about to kick off, but the conference as a whole doesn’t look quite as daunting as it did in the pre-season. Purdue looks like the only sure thing with a handful of teams, including the badgers, trying to make statements.
I wouldn’t expect to see the offense score like they did against Marquette every game, especially the second half. However, the first half against Houston (40 points) should be a reasonable expectation as the youth gains experience and confidence. An efficient offense that uses strong driving ability to set up open 3’s and putting the ball in Johnny Davis’s hands during crunch time. If he continues to score at all 4 levels like he has so far (3 point, mid range, at the rim, free throw line) the Badgers will have a top of the line scorer as the rest of the lineup finds way to supplement what him and Brad do on a nightly basis.
Defense
Defensively, the team has been even better. Between the classis UW discipline and the individual skill of the young players, we shouldn’t expect to see much change from non conference to conference play in terms of stopping opposing teams.
Wisconsin is averaging just shy of 6 steals per game which is a sign of good anticipation and great hands. On multiple occasions, we’ve seen Chucky recover to disrupt the ball handler and either dislodge the ball, or completely smother the offensive player. With Johnny being able to guard positions 1-3 and the point guards allowing little to no open space, the guard position looks to be a huge game changers on the defensive end.
The bigs look to be in great shape as well. Crowl, as long as he stays out of foul trouble, has been a huge difference maker on the defensive end. His ability to stand tall, disrupt at the rim and recover when stuck out on the perimeter has been exactly what this team needs. With Wahl’s ability to play bigger than he appears, the Badgers only need about 10 minutes a game each from transfer Vogt and sophomores Carlson and Gilmore.
The have the personnel to play man to man or zone. They also have the athleticism with certain lineups to switch instead of dropping below screens. The cohesion we’ve seen so far from this team isn’t what you’d expect from a team starting a true freshman and 2 sophomores.
The ceiling
I believe we have seen what is close to the ceiling for this defense. The only thing I think that may get better, is the bigs ability to stay out of foul trouble. On multiple occasions we’ve seen Carlson have to come in at the 5 because Crowl and Vogt were in foul trouble. With Crowl being such an important part of the teams success so far on both ends of the floor, keeping him out there as much as possible will only bring better results!
Overall
We’ve seen the 2021/2022 Badgers win in multiple ways so far this season, which isn’t something we are used to. They put up points against Marquette and Georgia Tech, and won defensive battles against Houston and St. Mary’s.
Even with them showing they are versatile, it’s the mental fortitude and ability to close out games that makes this team special. In Vegas, Bucky had to hold off their opponents in close wins in the semi-finals and finals against teams that will almost certainly be in the NCAA tournament. Against Houston, the Badgers had to hold off a huge second half run as well. Many teams would fold under those circumstances, especially given how young this team is.
This team doesn’t seem to have the offensive skill across the board as those badger final 4 teams, but this team may be more exciting. Johnny Davis is close to becoming the most exciting talent UW has had since Alondo Tucker, which is no slight to Dekker or Kaminsky. His athleticism adds an element to the Badgers that we rarely see, especially in the smooth and controlled way he goes about it.
The ceiling
With virtually no one predicting this team to make the NCAA tournament this year, what we’ve seen so far shows us that isn’t only a possibility, but a likely result. The Big 10 is always a slug fest, but that may benefit this years team. With their only being 1 clear juggernaut, the Badgers have a chance to finish top 4 in the conference and see the second weekend of the dance.
As these players continue to develop, we’ll see the confidence grow and this team continually reach new heights.
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