The 2023 Green Bay Packers season was a surprisingly eventful one, to say the least. To the greater football world, it may have been forgettable aside from the Packer’s hilarious win over the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs.
However, to Packers fans, this past season may have gone down as one of the most rollercoaster up-and-down seasons the team has ever had. We may be looking back at it years from now as an essential building block year for the Jordan Love era, as lots of new players put the league on notice.
One player who did not establish himself this year was RB AJ Dillon. In a year with a lot of turnaround and breakneck changes, Dillon was seen as someone who was expected to keep the team afloat, and that was before Aaron Jones ended up missing a large chunk of the season due to injury. The crazy thing is, Dillon did this in an important contract year.
Instead, Dillon ended the year with a depressing 3.4 yards per carry. For those who don’t know, 3.4 YPC is worse than bad. It’s a stat that’s a wake-up call for any running back, similar to how throwing 20 interceptions would be a wake-up call to any quarterback.
It’s especially surprising given Dillon’s strong career start.
How Dominant Was AJ Dillon From 2020 To 2022?
It’s not like Dillon was an okay player waiting to break out. He hasn’t had a thousand-yard rushing season, but he’s been pretty solid up to this point. The Green Bay fan base in particular loved him and gave him the nickname “Quadfather”.
Dillon was taken in the 2nd round of the controversial 2020 draft, and while it was a pick the fans didn’t want at the time, they were too busy decrying the Jordan Love pick to care.
AJ was a bruising back hailing from Boston College. Standing at around 6 feet tall, weighing 247, and running a 4.5 at the combine, there wasn’t much to dislike about Dillon. Comparisons to Derrick Henry were fair, although it’s hard to be on that level of a running back.
But he entered the league and was on that level his rookie year, although doing so in a limited role. With less than 100 carries, he reached the mark of 5.3 yards per carry, a stark contrast from his 3.4 YPC stat line in 2023.
In all fairness, he did play alongside Aaron Jones and Aaron Rodgers in arguably the best year either of them had. In 2021, Dillon fell back to Earth to an extent with a much larger role in the offense. He still had fewer carries than Jones and ended up with 4.3 YPC. That’s about the league average for a running back.
2022 saw a similar workload for Dillon, and his 4.1 YPC was still fine despite not being the sexiest number. For a thumper like Dillon, 4 yards per carry is fine as he’s the type of back to get 4 yards every single touch. Every coach dreams of a back like that, as they’re very dependable and consistent.
What Happened To AJ Dillon In 2023?
Dillon is surprisingly completely off the map this year with a disastrous 3.4 yards per carry. Once again, that’s insanely bad – however, it is fixable.
But why did he have such a sudden drop-off?
It’s worth taking a look at the surrounding scene. Aaron Jones had 4.6 YPC last year, which is significantly better, but also a slight decline compared to Jones’s typical average of 5.1 YPC. It’s also worth taking a look at the stats across the entire season. Jones, like Dillon, struggled purely running the football earlier in the season.
Looking at the offensive line, which is a huge part of the running game, it becomes clearer as to what exactly happened. By season’s end, ESPN ranked the Packers unit as 16th best in run blocking win rate. Just like Jordan Love, however, the unit struggled early on in the season due to youth, as well as injuries.
By the time the offensive line got clicking and became arguably dominant at season’s end, Dillon started struggling with a thumb injury that kept him questionable week-to-week. Meanwhile, Jones was getting better and better each week with the line improving and his injuries healing up. In both playoff games, he went off against two of the best front sevens in the league, and the OL played a huge part in that.
All of these factors combine to why Dillon never got going. It’s not fair that fans and critics can point at his production when there are much bigger elements going on throughout an NFL season. Some people think he’s too slow and has poor vision, and while those criticisms might be valid, it’s not good enough to explain everything.
With an entire off-season to recover from all of his injuries and hopefully learn from what went wrong, Dillon certainly will have the chip on his shoulder to improve his game. The OL should also get better as well, assuming Dillon returns for the 2024 season.