After a third straight year of disappointment, Aaron Rodgers’ time on the Packers may be coming to an end. The Packers will be $58.5 million over the cap at the start of the 2022 free agency period.
The Packers will be losing many important pieces like Davante Adams, Rasul Douglas, Devondre Campbell, Krys Barnes, and many more. This list only includes free agents. Many other players will have to be cut for the Packers to get under the cap. Among those that could become cap casualties are Za’darius Smith, Preston Smith, Randall Cobb, and Billy Turner.
The Packers are looking towards a potential rebuilding year, and Aaron Rodgers has stated, “I don’t want to be part of a rebuild if I keep playing. It’s a lot of decisions over the next few months”. It makes sense he doesn’t want to be part of a rebuild. He will be turning 39 years old next season. The clock is ticking for Rodgers’ to win his 2nd Super Bowl.
Using the Matt Stafford trade as a basis (2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick, 2021 third-round pick, and Jared Goff), below are three teams that could be primed for a Super Bowl run with Aaron Rodgers.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers should be Rodgers’ number one option if he were to be traded. He’s already stated that he likes Mike Tomlin. Plus, the Steelers were a playoff team this season (albeit one of the worst in recent memory). The Steelers’ defense was elite this year and rosters the assumed Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY), TJ Watt.
That being said, the offense was anemic, primarily due to the poor QB play. In most games, the defense kept the Steelers alive, which allowed for some late-game heroics. A star QB would skyrocket the Steelers into the upper echelons of the AFC. Who wouldn’t want to watch Joe Burrow vs. Aaron Rodgers twice a year?
Thankfully, the Steelers have the cap space to receive Aaron Rodgers (with a bit of maneuvering). The Steelers have $34 million in cap space, and Aaron Rodgers has a cap hit of $46 million. Rodgers would most likely restructure his contract a bit for the trade to work. The Packers would most likely also take on a player or two. Now, what could an Aaron Rodgers trade to the Steelers look like?
Packers receive: 2022 First Round pick (20), 2022 Second Round pick (54), 2023 First Round pick, 2023 Second Round pick, WR Diontae Johnson, and ILB Devin Bush
Steelers receive: QB Aaron Rodgers, 2022 4th Round pick (124), 2023 Fourth Round pick
Reasoning:
Stafford garnered two firsts, a third, and a salary dump (Jared Goff). Aaron Rodgers is a soon-to-be 4-time MVP, and multiple firsts are the base for a player of Rodger’s caliber. However, Rodgers will be 39 and has a history of drama the past few years. That should lower his value a bit, but not enough to not warrant a King’s ransom.
The Packers giving the Steelers two 4th rounders will make the loss of Johnson and Bush hurt a little less. Diontae Johnson is a budding star, but in the last year of his deal, the Steelers may want to capitalize on his value now instead of potentially losing him in the 2023 free agency.
Devin Bush has been a bust for his whole career in Pittsburgh. He has all the intangibles to be great but has never put it together on the field. A change of scenery may be what Bush needs to improve his play.
The Packers need WR and ILB depth badly, as the Packers only have two WRs under contract going into next season, Randall Cobb (who could turn into a cap casualty) and Amari Rodgers. ILB depth is even worse, as Ty Summers is the only ILB under contract next season.
Bush and Johnson could be one-year rentals (Bush has a 5th-year option), but they, along with the extra first and second, could keep the Packers somewhat competitive in Love’s first season as a starter.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders were a timeout away from being the 7th seed instead of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Derek Carr has been decent for the Raiders, but adding Aaron Rodgers would take this team (just like the Steelers) to the next level. The Raiders offer Rodgers a more balanced offense than the Steelers as the Raiders have some form of an offensive line to go along with multiple WRs signed for the future.
The Raider’s defense isn’t as good as the Steelers, but it is young and improving. Adding a QB that doesn’t turn the ball over, will also help out the defense. Carr threw for 14 interceptions and has had a fumbling problem for his entire career. Fewer turnovers will allow the defense to rest and stay off the field.
Who wouldn’t want to see Mahomes vs. Rodgers twice a year?
So what could a trade look like between the Packers and the Raiders:
Packers receive: 2022 First Round pick (22), 2022 Second Round pick (53), 2023 First Round pick, 2023 Second Round pick, QB Derek Carr, and WR Hunter Renfrow
Raiders receive: QB Aaron Rodgers
Reasoning:
The Raiders receive arguably the most talented QB to play the game, making them contenders for the first time in a while. They do lose a budding star in Hunter Renfrow but with Bryan Edwards, Darren Waller, and Josh Jacobs still on the roster, the offense will improve under Rodgers.
Similar to the Stafford trade, the Packers would have to take on the Derek Carr contract to make the money work. Carr has a cap hit of nearly $20 mil and could be a one-year starter if Love is deemed not ready to start in 2023. Hopefully, Love is ready to start, and the Packers can just release Carr and take on $0 in dead cap.
Adding Renfrow to the Packers WR group is crucial, as the depth of the Packers WR is non-existent. Renfrow also adds another young piece alongside Amari Rodgers to grow with Jordan Love.
Denver Broncos
People believe that Denver is the most likely destination for Aaron Rodgers if he is traded. Of course, we have to touch upon this one. Denver makes too much sense; they have all the cap space to make this trade happen without any restructuring or extra players being thrown in. They are also only a quarterback away from success: great WRs, an ascending RB, and an elite defense.
The Broncos also have the more valuable picks compared to the other two teams listed. A top 10 pick would be incredibly valuable for the Packers to continue their success and change their rebuild into a retooling.
Nathaniel Hackett has also been tied to becoming the new head coach for the Denver Broncos. Rodgers knowing the head coach, would provide a more mutual breakup between himself and the Packers.
This also gives us another chance of seeing Mahomes vs. Rodgers twice a year.
Possible trade for Rodgers could look like this:
Packers receive: 2022 First Round pick (9), 2022 Second Round pick (40), 2022 Second Round pick (60), 2023 First Round pick, 2023 Third Round pick, WR Jerry Jeudy, and RG Quinn Mienerz
Broncos receive: QB Aaron Rodgers, RT Billy Turner, and 2022 Third Round pick (92)
Reasoning:
John Elway and the Broncos have been searching for a starting QB since Peyton Manning retired and have failed at every turn. This Broncos team is too good not to compete. Elway will try anything he can to get his team back to the promised land, and he believes Rodgers is the guy to do it.
The Broncos are giving up a lot with two young pieces in Jeudy and Mienerz, but they get back Aaron “bleeping” Rodgers along with a very good RT (which they need bad) in Billy Turner. Turner is part of this trade as he may be a cap casualty but still holds a lot of value as an above-average starting RT. Rodgers also brings a teammate along with him to his new team.
The Packers get a guy who can become a franchise guard in Mienerz, allowing Jenkins more time to recover next season and possibly play the RT position. Jeudy is a stud, and the Packers need WR help. Not much else to say about that.
The Broncos are giving up a lot of value, which is why I have the Packers throwing in their Third-Round pick this year. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Packers threw in another late pick or two for a trade similar to this happen.
Final Thoughts on an Aaron Rodgers Trade
I may be overvaluing Rodgers, or I may be undervaluing Rodgers. Based on the Stafford trade, all of these trades are simply what I think could happen. It is incredibly difficult to develop credible trades when we’ve never seen a 4x MVP get traded before. It’s unheard of. As much as Packers fans have loved Rodgers throughout his career in Green Bay, it’s time to say goodbye and usher in a new era of Love.
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