The Green Bay Packers have the best running back duo in the NFL. Additionally, both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have a deep fondness for the organization and the state of Wisconsin. Jones took a pay cut to stay in Green Bay this season and Dillon has made Door County, Wisconsin his permanent home. He said, multiple times, that Wisconsin will be home, no matter where football takes him.
Unfortunately, football may take Dillon away from his new home-state sooner rather than later. As he enters the final year of his rookie deal, and running back contracts at the forefront of everyone’s mind thanks to Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, many wonder if the Packers will even be interested in bringing him back.
In fact, one NFL analyst isn’t even sure Dillon will get a big payday from anyone next season.
NFL Analyst Projects Green Bay Packers Running Back AJ Dillon Will Get Less Than $10 Million on Next Deal
Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report wrote an article in which he projected the contracts of 10 NFL running backs that will be free agents next season. Dillon was the ninth running back he analyzed, and he wrote:
“Dillon’s yards per carry dipped to a career-low 4.1 last year, and he failed to hit 1,000 total yards after eclipsing that mark in 2021. But the 6’0”, 247-pounder is a capable downhill bruiser who is a better receiver than he’s credited for.
“It’s possible that the Packers could re-up Dillon and release Aaron Jones to save cap space in 2024. But it’s a move that would cost almost as much in dead money as it would save, and while Jones is older, he’s also a more well-rounded and dynamic player.
“That leaves Dillon hitting the open market as the most likely outcome.
“And if teams view him as a one-dimensional chain-mover, his second contract will likely be a relatively modest one.
“Projected Contract: Two years, $9.5 million, $5 million guaranteed”
While Dillon did have a down year last season, it was still a season in which he had 976 all-purpose yards. Of his 2022 season, Dillon told Jason Wilde of The Wisconsin State Journal:
“I wanted to put myself in the best position to get a contract. My wife was pregnant, first-time parent and I’m like, ‘Well, now I want to make sure we’re stable, we’ve got a place to live.’ Things like that.
“It wasn’t a bad year or anything like that, but it wasn’t the year I was hoping for last year. So, obviously, there’s things I need to work on. But the biggest thing for me is just the mentality of, ‘I’m going to go out there and I’m going to play free.
“I love Green Bay. Green Bay knows that. I love the Packers. The Packers know that. I’d play here until I can’t run anymore. I’ll pick up long snapper or whatever it is when I start slowing down. But there’s only so much I can control.”
In other words, Dillon was too focused on getting a second contract last season. It actually had a negative effect on his play.
Clearly, how Dillon performs in 2023 will be the true indicator of what he is offered in his second contract, whether it be with the Packers or someone else. Ideally, for fans and Dillon, it would be with the Packers. If two-years for $9.5 million is truly going to be his market value, and he has a solid season, Green Bay would be foolish not to sign him for that much.
That being said, if Dillon has a season like he did in 2021 when he had over 1,000 all-purpose yards and scored seven total touchdowns, that price may go up. At that point, the Packers may need to choose between Dillon and Jones.
But that is a problem for later. For now, the team is focused on shocking the world with Jordan Love under center. Both Dillon and Jones will play large roles in the offense this year, and hopefully can reap the financial rewards as a result.
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