Entering play on June 2nd, the Milwaukee Brewers possess a slim half game lead on the division. This comes despite an uninspiring 29-27 record, just two series victories since the start of May, and a -26 run differential. The Brewers have seemingly stayed atop the NL Central for most of the season thus far, which begs the questions as to how they’ve managed this feat, and whether it’s sustainable.
How They’ve Performed
Offensively, the Brewers rate as one of the worst teams in baseball. Entering play on June 2nd, they rank 29th in total hits (418), 27th in average (.230), 26th in on-base percentage (.306), 27th in slugging percentage (.379), and 26th in OPS (.685). Rating in the bottom fifth of the league in these key offensive metrics paints the clear picture that the Brewers are a very bad offense, even after considering the many injuries sustained (most notably, Willy Adames). The Brewers offense has had a glimpse of hope with Owen Miller currently slashing .328/.365/.500, but no one else has been able to provide a spark to produce runs. That has left the team ranking 25th in runs scored, which is certainly not helping their efforts to win games.
While the pitching staff has retained many of the top arms from the past few years, an injury to Brandon Woodruff in early April (who had a 0.79 ERA in 2 starts) and lackluster results from fellow aces Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta has left the team’s pitching in unfamiliar territory: average. The Brewers as a whole rank 13th in ERA (4.12), 15th in WHIP (1.30), and a shockingly low 26th in strikeouts (434). Devin Williams has been nearly perfect coming out of the bullpen, touting a mere 0.48 ERA. The problem has been getting him into the game, with few save or late-tie situations for Williams to handle.
Pitching appearances since May 15th:
— Dominic Cotroneo (@Dom_Cotroneo) May 27, 2023
Devin Williams : 2
Mike Brosseau : 3
Is This Sustainable?
For the Brewers to find themselves over .500 with a negative run differential, bottom tier offense, and average pitching is purely good fortune. While the Brewers have recently made the postseason by bucking the run differential trend (+2 in 2019 and -22 in 2020), this team will have to find more offensive production elsewhere to become a serious contender. With the return of Willy Adames and Luis Urias looming, perhaps restoring the clubhouse chemistry can heal the Brewers’ issues that have plagued them since the injury bug hit the team in April, which saw the team win 5 of their first 6 series.
Additionally, the Brewers have the worst offense in the NL by OPS, meaning every division opponent has a better offense. Where the Brewers rank 15th in the NL at .685, the Reds are next worst at 9th, ranking 40 points higher at .725. Pittsburgh is 7th at .728, Chicago 5th at .744, and St. Louis 4th at .753. With the Cardinals already surging after a putrid start to their season, it will be imperative for the Brewers to start producing at the plate, or else the rest of the division will soon catch up.
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