The 2023 Milwaukee Brewers season has been tough to put a finger on so far. We’ve seen different parts of the team do the heavy lifting during varying hot stretches throughout the season to this point. The offense was the focal point to start the season as 4.9 runs per game resulted in a 15-6 start.
After a month and a half of poor baseball, the offense returned before the all-star break while the bullpen came up clutch night in and night out. With the second half of the season underway, starting pitching has been the catalyst to winning 7 out of 10 games.
Although it’s nice knowing the Milwaukee Brewers can win games in multiple ways, it also shows the inconsistencies of the roster. The starting rotation can be dominant when healthy, but we haven’t seen a clean bill of health since the season started. The bullpen has been impressive but virtually all of the high-leverage arms are having rather unexpected career years. Will they continue to be reliable when the pressure ramps up?
Then we have an offense that has battled injuries yes, but is still one of the worst in all of baseball. Even if healthy, this offense looks very similar to the last four Milwaukee Brewer playoff rosters that only won 1 playoff series between them and struggled to score. Although injuries continue to ravage the pitching staff, the front office will need to focus on improving these positions for the team to be a true threat in the playoffs.
Offensive Black Holes
The Milwaukee Brewers have a few positions that have struggled mightily this season. Wins above replacement (WAR) is a stat used to measure the total value provided by a player. To simplify the stat, it calculates how many added “wins” a player may add to a team when compared to a replacement-level player. Player stats, both offensive and defensive, are used to come up with an overall value.
The Milwaukee Brewers have ranked 24th in team WAR so far this season. Incredibly, they are 3rd in the National League with very few players performing above average. Thanks to baseball-reference, we can see where the Brewers rank by position compared to every other team.
As expected relief pitching has been the strongest part of the team. Starting pitching is ranked near the middle of the pack which is impressive considering how many injuries they’ve dealt with. The offensive positions, however, are a different story.
The resurgence of Christian Yelich and the off-season addition of William Contreras have given the Milwaukee Brewers two positions that grade out well overall as they sit 3rd (Left field) and 5th (catcher) respectively. Every other position is either near the bottom or being brought up to the middle of the pack due to above-average defense.
I don’t want to go down too deep of a rabbit hole but first base, second base, third base, right field, and designated hitter have been black holes for this lineup. The best rank of the five is second base and it’s 21st out of 30 teams. First base, third base, right field and DH grade out no better than 25th between the four.
That’s a lot of positions to be getting far below-average offensive production from and doesn’t even touch on a below average center-field ranking and a short-stop position being led by Willy Adames who is barely hitting above the Mendoza Line.
Again, injuries haven’t helped but we can’t act like Brian Anderson (.229 average), Rowdy Tellez (.213 average) and Darin Ruf (.192 average) are the answer. This offense just lacks proven big-league talent. I love the upside of the youth on the team but it’s not fair to expect them to save the offense in their first stint in the majors.
The front office will have an opportunity to upgrade before the trade deadline. I don’t expect big moves to be made, but small trades in hopes of improving first-base production are necessary. We could also see a DH flyer signing in hopes of adding some pop to the lineup.
The early results from Sal Frelick are encouraging as well. Getting outfield offensive playmakers through trade isn’t cheap and the Milwaukee Brewers have hopefully found a solution in their farm system. Second base, third base, and center field aren’t likely to be addressed in a big way due to the value of the trade it would take to see significant improvements.
Like most years, the front office is likely banking on hitters heating up toward the end of the summer and injured players contributing once they get healthy. First base is a position with a few low-cost trade options where I can see Matt Arnold taking a swing.
Bullpen Depth
The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen has been one of the best in baseball this season. A season after deciding to trade juggernaut closer Josh Hader, the bullpen has been rebuilt thanks to that trade. Although the fallout potentially cost a playoff birth last season, the subsequent moves brought in catcher William Contreras and key bullpen arm Joel Payamps.
Another overlooked move was the addition of Elvis Peguero in the Hunter Renfroe trade. The Brewers have quietly built a dominant bullpen while saving the money Hader would have commanded in arbitration. The current bullpen situation is arguably deeper now than when Hader was traded last year as well.
Although I am high on the current bullpen setup, the track record isn’t there outside of Devin Williams. This is a position I expect the front office to add more depth to before the deadline. Players like Hoby Milner and Abner Uribe have been great contributors, I don’t know how comfortable I feel with them being out there with the game on the line.
The Milwaukee Brewers aren’t likely to add a starting pitcher and Craig Counsell has shown he prefers to shorten games by relying on his bullpen in the playoffs. As impressive as the relievers have been, they aren’t proven commodities and to this point have had career years. That’s extremely encouraging for the future, but not something the front office will likely bank on heading into the most important part of the season.
Expect a reliever to be added in some capacity to complement what the team currently has. Another lefty would make a ton of sense if they can find it without giving up too much in return.
Starting Pitching on Life Support
The rotation has been a revolving door in 2023. Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta have been healthy but that’s pretty much where positives end. Ace Brandon Woodruff has logged 11 innings this year, Adrian Houser has only been able to start 11 games, Eric Lauer hasn’t been seen since May, and Wade Miley recently went down with an elbow injury.
Those are pitchers that have logged a ton of innings for this team over the last couple of years with most of them doing it at a very high level. Julio Teheran has stepped in admirably, as has journeyman Colin Rea. Between the injuries, up-and-down performances, and pitchers working their way back into regular work, it’s a miracle the bullpen has held up the way it has.
With all of that said, I would be shocked if the front office went after a starter. There are some intriguing options out there but starting pitching is always a big need for every playoff hopeful at the trade deadline. Many of those teams are also big-market teams and don’t need their prospects quite as much as the small-market Brewers do.
As much as I’d love the Milwaukee Brewers to target someone like Lucas Giolito, Max Scherzer, or Justin Verlander, I just don’t see it happening with there being so many offensive holes to worry about. The rotation has stayed afloat with Woodruff and Miley hopefully getting healthy for the home stretch.
The Milwaukee Brewers have a lot of holes to fill if they want to be a true threat in October. With only one more year of club control for a handful of impact players, this may be the last push we see before the youth movement hits Milwaukee.
Matt Arnold is smart enough to know the future is bright for this franchise and he won’t mortgage the future for an unlikely playoff push with a team with far too many shortcomings. With that said, he can take advantage of selling teams looking to shed cap space in the hopes that a change of scene could make all of the difference for a struggling player or two.
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