The Green Bay Packers have been hot recently.
If there have been brave bettors over the last few weeks, they would have cashed in if they picked the Packers to upset the Lions or Chiefs.
But now the tables have turned.
Jordan Love is playing the best football of his career and it feels like finally — when it matters the most with the playoffs still a strong possibility — Matt LaFleur has the youngest roster in the NFL clicking.
It isn’t an easy task to get a first-year starting quarterback and offense loaded with rookies or second-year players in starting skill positions to all get on the same page and perform at a high level, but that’s exactly what’s taken place over the last three weeks.
One former Packers’ QB is so impressed with the turnaround— and changes LaFleur and the coaching staff made to maximize Love’s strength and the talent he has at his disposal—he believes the Green Bay from man should be considered for NFL Coach of the Year.
Now, it’s important the Packers take care of business in games where they are the clear favorites, a scenario that hasn’t been the case in most matchups in 2023.
Green Bay Packers Significant Favorites Over New York Giants
The Pack opened as (-6) point favorites over the Giants in the upcoming road trip to Met Life Stadium in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football.
The Giants haven’t been good this season. They are starting Tommy DeVito, who will be playing his fifth ever career game as a NFL quarterback and they have one of the worst statistical defenses in the league.
While the Packers’ run defense hasn’t been great this season, it’s shown improvement over the last few weeks just like the offense.
It’s no secret the New York Giants will enter the matchup with a run-heavy game plan centered around their superstar RB, Saquon Barkley. But defensive coordinator Joe Barry will devise a game plan focused on stopping Barkley — who leads the NFL in rushing with 583 yards on 136 attempts (4.28 average) — since returning from an ankle injury on Oct. 15.
The Packers rank 20th in the NFL in sacks, but if they can force the Giants to beat them through the air, recent history shows they have a major edge. In their three-game winning streak, they sacked Justin Herbert twice, Jared Goff three times and Patrick Mahomes three times.
In just five NFL games with only three starts, DeVito has already been sacked 28 times.
If the Green Bay Packers can force DeVito to beat them as a passer by taking away Barkley, they should have a field day against an offensive line that has been one of the leagues worst, with nine different starting combinations through 14 weeks of the season.
PFF Says To Take The Green Bay Packers To Cover Spread Over Giants
Pro Football Focus (PFF) is the most trusted site for deep dives into analytics and matchups when it comes to the NFL.
In their NFL Week 14 best bets, they highlight exactly why taking the Packers (-6) over the Giants is a no brainer.
Here’s what they said:
• Jordan Love has been flashing legitimate potential to be Aaron Rodgers’ successor in Green Bay over the past couple of weeks and is on his way to leading them to a wild-card berth. One of the strongest aspects of Love’s game this season is his performance against the blitz, with his 77.2 passing grade the seventh-best mark in the league through Week 13 and his 3.7% sack rate when blitzed the fourth-best mark among quarterbacks.
• The Packers did lose Christian Watson to what seemed like a hamstring injury late in the Sunday night game, but regardless of whether he plays, the offense has players who are capable of separating against man coverage. Specifically, Dontayvion Wickshas shown up very nicely in our charting metrics versus single man coverage. Entering Week 13, he ranked second in the percentage of routes charted as open against single man coverage.
• On the other side, the Packers are a middle-of-the-pack unit in every defensive metric. While Tommy DeVito has flashed in recent weeks, it has come against non-playoff teams like the Patriots and Commanders. The Giants are also one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL, ranking 32nd in EPA per rush and 25th in rushing success rate, so they probably won’t find any success there, either.
If you want to make some money, all signs point to the Green Bay Packers taking care of business and beating the New York Giants by a significant margin on Monday night.
