If you’ve heard anyone talk about Green Bay’s receivers in the last 12 months, you know what the tired narrative is: “They are not any good because they don’t have any talent outside of Davante Adams.”
The Matt LaFleur System
The frustrating part of this narrative is that it completely ignores the philosophy of the team. Matt LaFleur’s offense is predicated on a run-first, two Tight End, play-action heavy system. The pinnacle of his offense is perfectly captured in what San Francisco did to Green Bay in the 2019 NFC Championship Game: 285 yards on the ground on 42 rushes, and only 77 passing yards on eight attempts.
The Niners demolished Green Bay and they only threw the ball eight times.
If you can move the ball at will on the ground, thereby destroying the will and ability of your opponent, you do not need a loaded corps of star receivers to carry the water for your offense. Just ask the 2011 Packers how their vaunted passing attack did in the playoffs.
I am excited about this shift in philosophy. Daring your opponent to get into a track meet with you is dangerous, and I love the idea of being able to shove the ball down your opponent’s throat. That said, here is some rock-solid fantasy advice pertaining to the 2020 Packers:
The Wide Receivers
If you’re smart, you should avoid Green Bay wide receivers like the plague for your upcoming fantasy season.
Outside of Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, it’s slim pickings in the Wide Receiver room at Lombardi Ave. Granted, MVS has had a strong camp. However, we have yet to see that translate to games outside of some brief – albeit impressive – flashes.
The chart below plots yards from scrimmage along the x-axis and touchdowns along the y-axis for all players from 2017-2019. Do you notice anything?
Davante Adams is a star. There is no disputing that, but outside of him, Green Bay’s offensive production comes from their running backs.
The faint gray line on the chart gives you a reference for how the league performs. The dots above the line represent players that are above average at generating yards from scrimmage. These players include the likes of Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, and Christian McCaffery. These are the cream of the crop of fantasy studs.
Notice all of Green Bay’s Receivers at the bottom left of the graph and below the gray line: Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Jake Kumerow. Marquez Valdes Scantling is above the line, but he is still stuck with the laggards of the league. Moreover, Green Bay’s offseason did nothing but reinforce their desire to build an elite rushing attack rather than bolster a weak receiving room.
The Takeaway
Now, let’s look at the direction Green Bay’s offense is headed. The next chart plots passing attempts by year. If we exclude the outlier years of 2013 and 2017 when Rodgers missed extended time from injury, 2019 leaps off the page. From 2014-2018, under Mike McCarthy, the Packers were pass-heavy. They were chucking the pigskin an average of 574.8 times per year.
In year one of the Lafleur era? They threw it just 569 times. This is not a monumental drop-off, but not only were attempts down, but the targets were also spread around by position, indicating the larger role that backs play in Lafleur’s passing attack. That is not a good sign if you are looking at Green Bay’s Receivers’ room for fantasy help this year.
After Davante Adams, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are Green Bay’s most potent offensive weapons.
Over this same period, rushing attempts skyrocketed. In 2019, Green Bay ran the ball 10% more than their prior 4-year average.
There has been a clear paradigm shift in Green Bay, and while it bodes well for backs and the team overall, it is a far cry from the McCarthy’s spread ‘em and chuck the ball offense.
Could Someone Else Step Up?
Now look, I have high, high hopes for Lazard, EQ, and MVS to make strides in their second year in Lafleur’s offense, and I think the disrespect on those guys is unjustified to put it mildly. Lazard is primed for a breakout season, and MVS has been having a strong camp. That said, the jury is out, and they have not shown enough to prove themselves to be reliable fantasy starters.
I am also not a critic of the Pack’s desire to adjust their offensive philosophy. I just do not think this change bodes well for the fantasy production of players in Green Bay’s passing attack this year.
In Conclusion
Bottom line: if he is wearing the green and gold and his name does not rhyme with “Spumante Fathoms,” I would not draft him.
Follow me on Twitter for more great content @PCheddarhead And follow Wisconsin Sports Heroics as well. For the latest news in Wisconsin, check here!
