The Wisconsin football season kicks off September 3 at home vs FCS opponent Illinois State. Below I examine where some potential value may lie for bettors looking to back Wisconsin in the futures markets. Before diving in to the markets, lets take a look at the schedule.
Wisconsin Football Schedule
View the full schedule here.
The Badgers will roll through their non-conference slate and head in to Columbus 3-0 for a date with Ohio State. Beating Ohio State at the Horseshoe is a tall task for anyone. That game is followed by a home date with Bret Bielema’s Illinois Fighting Illini, who will surely be up for that game. Wisconsin then travels to Northwestern, Michigan State (preseason AP #15) and hosts Purdue on October 22. The final stretch includes an improved Maryland team, two virtual coinflip games on the road with Iowa and Nebraska, and the axe game at home against Minnesota. For a more in-depth breakdown of the schedule, check out the 3 part schedule breakdown series on Wisconsin Sports Heroics.
Futures Market: Regular Season Win Total
This number currently sits at 8.5 at many books with heavy juice to the over (-150 or so). This means you would have to risk $150 to win $100 if the Badgers win 9 games. I did also see one book with the total set at a flat 9, for a +110 payout. I would be more inclined to play the 9 wins over at a plus-money price than the 8.5. Regardless, I don’t think either is a great bet. There are too many coinflip games on the schedule for me to pay the juice for over 8.5, and +110 is not a good enough payout to ask this team to win 10 games. Verdict: Pass
Futures Market: Big Ten West Champion
There is no clear favorite in the Big Ten West. Wisconsin has the shortest odds at +190, but there are cases to be made for Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota or Purdue to win this division. If you are looking to back Wisconsin, I would wait until after the Ohio State game, which they will be big underdogs in. Also looming is a tough road game against Michigan State. If they lose to Ohio State and/or Michigan Sate you will be able to grab a better number on the Badgers to win the Big Ten West. All their key Big Ten West games are still ahead of them at this point, so they could still make up ground in the standings. Verdict: Evaluate Market After Ohio State and Michigan State Games
Futures Market: Big Ten Champion
The elephant in the room here is Ohio State. If you don’t think Wisconsin can beat Ohio State, there is no reason to get involved with this market at 11/1. I would take the same approach in this market as I did with the Big Ten West, and evaluate after the Ohio State and Michigan State games. If Wisconsin plays the Buckeyes tough in a losing effort, it may be worth a shot at some better odds than you can currently get now. Verdict: Evaluate Market After Ohio State and Michigan State Games
Futures Market: College Football Playoff & National Championship
Wisconsin sits around 100/1 to win the National Championship at most shops. I’ve seen 10/1 to make the College Football Playoff at a few places. I have no interest in betting the playoff number, as you can get a better price on them to win the Big Ten, which they will need to do to make the playoff. 100/1 on the national championship is a fun lottery ticket if you have some pizza money laying around. If they were to make the playoff, then you would have 100/1 in pocket with some hedging opportunities to lock in a profit. Verdict: Pass on Playoff, Fun Money on National Championship 100/1
Futures Market: Heisman Trophy Winner
Some value lies in this market right now. Sophomore running back Braelon Allen is 60/1 to win the 2022 Heisman Trophy. He will put up gaudy numbers to pad his stats in the first 3 weeks of the season against mediocre-weak opponents. Then he will be in the national spotlight against Ohio State on 9/24. With a great game there, he will shoot up the odds board in a hurry. I see potential for this number to get much smaller in the first month of the season. I think this is worth playing now. Verdict: Bet Braelon Allen to Win Heisman Trophy 60/1
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