It finally happened; Aaron Rodgers has been traded to the New York Jets, according to Adam Schefter. As much content as this move created, it was always going to happen one way to another. If it weren’t to the Jets, it would have been a different team thinking Rodgers was the key to their Super Bowl aspirations.
Now that the trade is done, we can focus on how moving from pick No. 15 to 13 in the first-round NFL Draft order night changes things for the Packers. At face value, the move may not seem to move the needle much. Come late Thursday night, that may be true, but it opens up more options for a team with plenty of direction to go in round one.
In this article, I’ll explain how jumping up two spots in the NFL Draft order helps the Packers and what we could see happen on Thursday night because of it.
NFL Draft Order Shakeup: Trade Back Value
Trading back in the first round is by no means exciting for the fans, but it is generally a smart move by the front office. Any team willing to do it usually doesn’t have a player they love at their Draft position and leverages that to gain more draft capital. With a Draft class that has more depth than high-end upside, that’s a great strategy for a team like the Packers.
We should all know by now that this team needs to get younger and cheaper. After years of pushing back contracts, the bill is finally due and will be for at least another season. As much as that limits the front office in Free Agency, it means getting more opportunities through the Draft to add impact talent is crucial.
With each pick in the NFL Draft order holding a certain value, moving up two spots means the return for giving up the spot is greater. According to the draft pick value chart, the 13th pick value is 1,150 versus 1,050 for pick 15. The value difference there is an early fourth rounder (100). That doesn’t consider the value difference between pick 13 and where ever the Packers would fall back to.
For discussion’s sake, let’s say the Bills wanted to trade up from the 27th pick to pick 13 in the NFL Draft order. The value for pick 27 is 680. The value difference for that jump is 470, which equates to a first-half second-round pick. That doesn’t consider multiple teams asking for the spot and the urgency to get “their guy.” The value on the chart is likely the bare minimum return.
For a team like the Packers that needs to find ways to cut costs and has had success drafting late in the first round, moving back makes a ton of sense. Although trading back lacks excitement, the value of jumping from pick 15 to 13 holds a good amount of value if Green Bay goes this route.
Bracing for Impact
Although there is plenty of potential to add an impact player at pick 15, that chance increases with moving up in the NFL Draft order pick 13. With many directions to go, moving up two spots allows the Packers to grab one of the best players on the board and target one that fits an immediate or future need.
There is no shortage of depth in this draft, and getting a top-end offensive lineman at pick 13 would be the kind of pick I could see this front office making. While there is plenty of differences in the myriad of mock drafts available for consumption, a consistent trend is an offensive lineman going at 13. While those predictions were made for the Jets, there is still a need for Green Bay.
A steady offensive line has been a huge part of why the Packers have been so consistent for so long. They have rarely invested top picks into the position group, but gems have consistently been found in the mid-rounds. With not many no-brainers likely to be sitting there at 13, grabbing the best offensive tackle on the board would make sense.
It’s not likely left tackle David Bakhtiari will be on the team next season. His cap hit for 2024 is set for $40 million, and although a dead cap hit of $19 million is less than ideal, that’s a huge difference from what he’d be owed if he were on the team. Finding his replacement a year early sounds exactly like something this front office would do, and this could very well be the Draft to do it.
We also can’t overlook the opportunity to draft wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Although virtually every mock draft has him going a pick before 13 to the Texans, things rarely go as predicted. Adding him would give Jordan Love a great weapon, giving Green Bay the youngest receiving core in football with a ton of upside.
Moving on Up in the NFL Draft Order
This is the least likely scenario, as the Packers are likely prioritizing the addition of picks, not subtraction. However, if there was a player they really liked, pick 13 in the NFL Draft order holds more value than 15 to help them make that jump.
If Brian Gutekunst wanted to get into the single digits of the NFL Draft order, it would likely take a third-round pick at a minimum to make it happen, at least according to the value chart. With the Jets also sending a second-round pick this year, Green Bay has more flexibility if they want to move up.
If the Packers did move up, I could see them moving to pick 13 and their second for pick No. 8 to target someone like Nolan Smith. It may seem repetitive to continue to target Georgia defenders, but the Packers are thin with pass rushers, and adding an athletic marvel, much like they did with Rashan Gary, would help short and long-term.
Overall, the move from pick 15 to 13 in the NFL Draft order probably doesn’t change much. They likely trade back or take a foundational piece either way. However, moving up 2 spots gives the front office more flexibility and ammo to move around the draft for players they really like.
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