Coming into the year, the NFC South was anticipated to be one of the more competitive divisions in all of football. Now, a competitive division is not the same as a good division. However, as the year has begun to unfold, no team has been able to separate itself from the pack. The playoffs are wide open, and the NFC South playoff odds reflect that.
**Odds from FanDuel
NFC South Playoff Odds
Atlanta Falcons -162
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Despite fielding quite possibly the 32nd-best starting quarterback in the NFL, the Falcons remain in contention with decent -162 NFC South Playoff odds. All jokes about Desmond Ridder aside, the Falcons have been up and down thus far. At 4-4 after 8 weeks, there have been few things that have sparked joy in Atlanta.
However, the one aspect of the team that has stepped up is Bijan Robinson. The rookie running back is showing why he was the eighth-overall pick. He has serious game-breaking ability and is going off for five yards per carry. While he’s scored twice via receiving touchdowns, he has yet to score a rushing touchdown.
On the defensive side of the ball, Atlanta has a top-five passing defense and a better-than-average run defense. With the likes of Jessie Bates III and AJ Terrell manning the back end, they’re playing with free money like a at your favorite sports betting site. This defense is going to lead this team to the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
New Orleans Saints -172
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Most people’s favorite to take the division is still in it despite a less-than-ideal start, just like with Atlanta. One-score games have been the name of the game. The Saints went out and got a new franchise quarterback in Derek Carr and expectations were high.
Adding Carr to an offense with Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, and the ghost of Michael Thomas sounded enticing. Through six weeks, this offense has not been up to those expectations. The run game is non-existent with Kamara leading the way with just 199. Rashid Shaheed has been a fun breakout thus far and the potential of this offense is likely what is carrying these odds.
The Saints defense has been led by a pair of tackle machine linebackers in Pete Warner and Damario Davis. Overall, the defense has been okay but has been able to stifle rushing attacks to the same tune that the offense cannot get it going.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +172
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Getting over Tom Brady’s retirement is difficult. Despite co-leading the way in the division after eight weeks (thanks to a bye week), the Buccaneers are not being respected by Vegas. With a +172, their NFC South Playoff odds aren’t the greatest.
Future Hall of Famer Mike Evans is, predictably, leading the way in targets, yards, and touchdowns for new quarterback, Baker Mayfield. Rachaad White has been a bright spot in the running game and has been the only one worth mentioning in that aspect. Overall, this offense scores nearly the same amount as the defense allows.
That defense is off to a good start. They’ve allowed more than 20 points just once against the Eagles. They average two turnovers per game and Week 6 was the first time they did not force any. The best may be yet to come for Tampa Bay despite a heartbreaking loss to Buffalo. They still have five NFC South matchups remaining and won their first.
Carolina Panthers +1600
The only NFC South team without a serious chance to make it to the playoffs is Carolina. With a brand-new coach, quarterback, and just rebuilding from top to bottom, it makes sense.
Bryce Young has struggled and has already missed time due to injury. However, they’ve been able to move the ball. 509 of Young’s 967 passing yards have gone to Adam Theilen. Four of Young’s touchdowns have gone Theilen’s way as well. Despite being winless, the Panthers have scored the most of any NFC South team by far.
Unfortunately, they allow the most points as well. Only one defense has allowed more points and allowing over 30 points per game is not exactly a winning formula. Usually, the caveat here would be that they can look forward to picking first overall. In their bid to draft Young, the Panthers traded away their first-round pick to the Bears…who currently hold the first two picks in next year’s draft.
Thankfully, the Panthers November schedule, other than the Cowboys game, is pretty winnable. Despite that, their NFC Playoff odds remain a longshot at best.
