The Green Bay Packers may have the youngest rosters in the NFL, but they will have a prime opportunity to reach the playoffs in one of the three available NFC Wildcard spots.
They even still have a decent shot to win the division.
After Sunday’s slate of games, the New York Times released a playoff simulator — and while winning out with one of the easiest remaining schedules of all the contenders is the best route — there are various scenarios that would land the 2023 Packers in the playoffs at this point.
The New York Times now places Green Bay’s playoff odds at roughly 72% after a run of thousands of simulations that imagine the rest of the season’s outcomes (and gives weight to the teams that would be expected to win).
Right now, the Packers’ best shot is to earn one of the Wildcard spots according to the simulator, although winning the NFC North is still on the table.
Here’s what to know about their standing, including tiebreakers, heading into their game against the New York Giants.
Who do the Green Bay Packers Play In Their Final Five Games?
- Dec. 11: at New York Giants (4-8), 7:15 p.m.
- Dec. 17: vs. Tampa Bay (6-7), noon
- Dec. 24: at Carolina (1-12), noon
- Dec. 31: at Minnesota (7-6), 7:20 p.m.
- Jan. 7: vs. Chicago (5-8), time TBD
Can The Green Bay Packers Lose A Game And Still Get In?
While winning out will give them 100 percent chance of playing in the postseason, losing one of the five remaining games isn’t the end of the world.
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel took a look at the various scenarios and said the Packers will “almost certainly” get in if they close out the season with a (4-1) record.
Here’s what the Journal Sentinel said:
The remaining five games on the schedule are NFC games, so they all have elevated standing in the tiebreaker procedures — with an emphasis on the Vikings and Bears games to close the year if the Packers are competing head-to-head with Minnesota … or for the division title with Detroit.
Green Bay defeated the Rams and Saints, hold a two-game lead over the Seahawks in the loss column of conference games — the top tiebreaker between teams not in the same division that haven’t played each other — and plays Tampa Bay head-to head, and therefore can establish a tiebreaker edge with a win there.
Atlanta can win the South and thus disappear from the Packers’ concerns; a Packers win over the Bucs would further make that possibility stronger. But as those teams jostle for position, it behooves the Packers to either see Atlanta rise above its South peers or keep losing to stay out of Green Bay’s way.
What Are The Green Bay Packers Chances If They Finish 3-2?
Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin.
As long as the Packers losses don’t come to the Vikings, they still have a 96 percent chance or better. Any combination of two losses against the Giants, Bucs, Panthers or Bears won’t throw them out of contention, according to the simulator.
A loss to the Vikings complicates things and it’s safe to say that’s the most important remaining game on the schedule. If the two losses come to the Vikings and Bears, they chances drop to roughly 75 percent. If it’s the Vikings and Bucs, the Green Bay Packers have around an 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
If it’s the other two combinations, they would have roughly an 89 percent chance.
Theoretically, the Packers could still get in by finishing (2-3), but they would need a bunch of help from other teams to get in, depending on who they lost to.
How Can The Green Bay Packers Win The Division?
The New York Times thinks the Packers have roughly a 45% chance of winning the division if they win out.
According to the breakdown from the Sentinel, the Packers would still be locked with Minnesota for second place at 7-6 with a win over the Giants, but in the scenario Green Bay wins out, that includes a win over the Vikings to bypass them in the standings. The Lions also have to deal with Minnesota twice, so the Packers know at least one of those teams will take a loss on two separate occasions.
Detroit also must face Denver (7-6) and Dallas (10-3). And, if the Packers win out, the tiebreaker will favor Green Bay. The teams split head-to-head, can have no worse than an identical division record, and since Detroit needs to lose twice more for the teams to even be tied, it means the Lions will lose at least one more NFC game and have a lesser conference record than the Packers.
