THE MATCHUP
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-10, 42.5) – odds current as of writing
Time: 7:20 PM CST
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
TV: NBC
ANNOUNCERS: Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth
If you bet along with me last week, you cashed an easy winner. I gave out under 48 (the total actually closed at 47), and it was never really in doubt as Green Bay’s offense lacked any explosiveness and looked flat-out inept at times. Lets take a look at the markets for week 2’s matchup with the Chicago Bears and see if we can find any more winners.
Bears & Packers Current Form
It’s well-documented how Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears, and it seems this phenomenon really shines through in primetime games at home. Coming off a bad loss in Minnesota, the Packers should be ready to take it to their rivals to the south. However, Green Bay has a lot to figure out, particularly on the offensive side of the ball where they only managed 7 points. Chicago meanwhile comes in to week 2 riding high off a 19-10 upset of the San Francisco 49ers. It was a very rainy day at Soldier Field, and neither offense was impressive. The Bears converted San Francisco turnovers into points in the second half and were able to pull away. It’s hard to take away a lot from that game considering the weather, but a win is a win nonetheless.
Bears/Packers Point Spread Analysis
As of writing, the Packers are favored by 10 points over the Bears. The Bears are significant underdogs for the second week in a row. Green Bay has a history of beating up on Chicago at home in primetime. However, Davante Adams isn’t walking through that door, and Green Bay’s wide receivers only managed 120 yards on Sunday:
Davante Adams receiving yards today: 141 yards
Packers wide receivers combined: 120 yards
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 12, 2022
I’m not ready to lay double digit points with an offense that has so many question marks. I’m also not ready to bet on the Chicago Bears to cover in Lambeau Field in a primetime game, especially considering Justin Fields only completed 8 passes in week 1. This spread is a pass for me:
The Pick: Pass
Bears/Packers Total Points Analysis
This over/under currently sits at 42.5, down three points from the opening line of 45.5. Both offenses struggled in week 1, with Green Bay only managing 7 points on 335 yards and Chicago mustering 19 points on a measly 204 yards. Most of Chicago’s offense was off broken plays and turnovers, two things I expect less of against the Packers. Aaron Rodgers generally takes great care of the football, and breakdowns in coverage should be a point of emphasis for the Packers secondary after being ravaged by Justin Jefferson to the tune of 184 yards. The Packers offense is still working things out, and I expect some growing pains to continue. Even though we are still a few days out, it appears there is also a chance of rain on Sunday in Green Bay, complicating matters more for two struggling offenses. Despite missing the best of the number, I think some value still exists on the under as long as it’s north of 42 points.
The Pick: Under 42.5 or better
Bears/Packers Prop Bet Analysis
I’m normally not a huge player prop guy, but there is one player I like to be featured in the Packers offensive attack this week. That player is Aaron Jones. Jones recorded only 8 touches in Sunday’s loss to Minnesota. Both Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers talked about Jones needing to be more involved in the offense during their media appearances this week. I think Jones is in line for a heavy workload both in the running and receiving games. As of writing, player prop lines aren’t widely available yet, but I would take a look at Aaron Jones overs in rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, and maybe look at an anytime touchdown scorer sprinkle.
The Pick: Take Hard Look at Aaron Jones Overs & Anytime TD Scorer
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