Last Game Recap
In the first of this two-game series, the Brewers stayed undefeated with a 3-2 victory over the Minnesota Twins. My bets went 2-0 as the Brewers’ money line continues to be a money maker, but Christian Yelich also cashed his over 1.5 bases with his solo blast in the 3rd inning. The pitching staff of Milwaukee continued their dominating ways, as Junis tossed 4 innings of 3 hit ball, followed by 5 innings of hitless ball from the Brewers’ pen.
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Joe Ross takes the mound for the first time this year as the Brewers look to finish their short two-game series at home. Ross hasn’t pitched since the 2021 season, making him a very buy-low opportunity for the Brewers. During Ross’ tenure with the Nationals, he had many quality stretches followed by abysmal ones. His first two seasons in the Majors he sported an ERA of 3.64 and 3.43. After these stellar seasons, Ross struggled with both performance and health. He pitched 153 innings over the following 3 seasons, each year having an ERA above 5. He returned to improved form in his last season with the Nationals, carrying a 4.17 ERA.
The Twins counter this hot Brewers’ lineup with Chris Paddock. Similarly to Ross, Paddock could barely find the field in 2023, only pitching 5 innings. In the seasons prior, Paddock had struggled. Since being moved from San Diego Paddock has not had an ERA sub 4.
The Bet(s) to Make: 04/03/24
Under 8.5
Prepare for a slow offensive battle as both squads continue their long stretch of day games. The Twins have yet to have an explosive offensive performance this season, which is why I shy away from the Brewers winning this game. I believe in regression/progression back to the mean and a squad built on the long ball is due to find some success. The Brewers bullpen has been taxed but continues their dominating ways. I see this game having a few solo home runs, with the potential for late lead changes but an impending 4-3 victory from one of the squads. This analysis is why I feel confident in the under 8.5 runs bet between the Brewers and Twins.
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