Today we are dissecting a mock draft from The Draft Network and discussing their Green Bay Packers selection. According to The Draft Network’s own analysis, the Green Bay Packers primary needs are wide receiver, tight end, offensive tackle, and edge rusher. I am inclined to agree with them for the most part, but I would sub out offensive tackle for safety – which they have listed as a secondary need. Pros, cons, and grades will be handed out based on positional value, prospect’s perceived value, player fit, and who was on the board in the mock draft when the selection was made.
The Pick: Michael Mayer, Tight End, Notre Dame
“This just feels like a match made in heaven. The Packers are likely to lose Robert Tonyan
in free agency, leaving a void at the tight end position. Mayer is the best in a loaded
tight end class and would fit in a very nicely with the Packers.” – Brentley Weissman, The Draft Network
Mock Draft Prospect Profile & Analysis
Michael Mayer (6’4” – 260lbs) is the most pro-ready tight end in this draft. He was highly productive for a tight end and was incredibly consistent as a pass catcher throughout his time at Notre Dame. In 2022 he had 67 receptions that went for 809 yards and 9 touchdowns. He was an excellent blocker on top of his receiving abilities, and he comes without any character or motivation concerns.
Pros:
- Prospect Value. The Draft Network’s own big board has Mayer at #14 overall as far as talent regardless of position and they also had him as the top overall tight end. CBS Sports has Mayer as #9 overall on their board, so it’s an even better value according to them. Overall, I think Mayer is a top 16 player in this draft, so the value matches up for the mock draft.
- Player Fit. Every team could use a player like Mayer, but especially a team that will most likely be without their best blocking (Marcedes Lewis) and best catching (Robert Tonyan) tight ends next season. Mayer would immediately become the best in both categories as soon as he was drafted. Mayer’s game has been compared to Jason Witten throughout the pre-draft/mock draft process, but I think it’s a bit unfair to compare a player to a future Hall of Famer, so I will go with a more reasonable comparison: TJ Hockenson. Like Hockenson, Mayer doesn’t really wow you with hyper-athletic ability and instead he impresses with consistency and somehow having zero flaws. Also, like Hockenson in the 2019 draft, Mayer is in a strong draft for the position. Hockenson was selected over better athletes, like Noah Fant or Irv Smith Jr., and so far, is the best tight end of the three simply because he has a well-rounded game. I suspect Mayer will be the same story after competing against other athletic tight end prospects like Darnell Washington (Georgia) and Dalton Kincaid (Utah). Mayer should be able to slot in as a great blocker and superb possession weapon for the Green Bay offense.
- Positional Need. This is cut and dry: the Packers need a tight end. Currently only Josiah Deguara is a lock to come back next season, and he projects more as an H-Back or fullback than he does as a true tight end. Mayer is bigger, faster, stronger, more refined, and a better blocker. He would immediately turn the tight end position from a “Need” to a “Don’t Worry About It” situation.
- Players left on the board. Brian Branch, Jalin Hyatt, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were all left on the board when Mayer was selected. Branch will cause consternation because safety is considered by many to be Green Bay’s number one need, but I think you could argue that tight end is just as big of a need and neither position is considered premium for defense or offense, respectively. We’ll call that a push. Jalin Hyatt is a favorite of college football fans after the year he just put up, but he doesn’t really fit into the physical profile that Brian Gutekunst seems to want from his wide receivers. Hyatt is 6’0” and 175lbs and looking back at the seven wide receivers that Gutekunst has drafted since becoming GM only one of them was under 6’0” (Amari Rodgers at 5’9” but he was 212lbs so still quite bigger than Hyatt) and only one of them was under 200lbs (Samori Toure was 191lbs, but he was a seventh rounder and still quite larger than Hyatt). So, while I’m a fan of Hyatt, I can see why the Packers wouldn’t draft him in the first round. As for Smith-Njigba, he was injured for almost the entirety of the 2022 season, so as an unknown I can’t blame the mock drafter for having the Packers skip on him. There weren’t any other notable players left on the board at positions of need, so overall, I can say that Michael Mayer is the best player available when the Packers were selecting.
Cons:
- Positional Value/Development Time. Tight ends are not considered a high value position by most NFL teams. In the past five NFL drafts, only four tight ends have gone in the first round: Kyle Pitts in 2021, TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant in 2019, Hayden Hurst in 2018. Hurst has recorded 177 receptions, 1,718 yards, and 14 touchdowns in his career so far which compares closer to Robert Tonyan’s career (128 receptions, 1,329 yards, 16 touchdowns) than you would want for a former first-round pick. and he’s already on his third NFL team (potentially fourth if the Bengals don’t re-sign him this offseason). Fant has been consistent, averaging around 55 receptions, 600 yards, and 4 touchdowns a season between the Broncos and the Seahawks which is good but not stellar. Hockenson is the cream of the crop, with two Pro Bowls to his name already, and he just recorded 86 receptions, 914 yards, and 6 touchdowns in 2022 for the Lions & Vikings. Pitts has the highest pedigree of the group, as a former 4th overall pick, but he hasn’t reached his potential and regressed after his rookie season (where he was a Pro Bowler). When you draft someone in the first round, especially in the top 16 picks, you expect a player who will contend for Pro Bowls at their position consistently and early. Tight ends are hot and cold in this regard, which is why most teams usually develop tight ends from later rounds rather than spend a first round pick on them (such as Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, George Kittle) or simply acquire them from a different team after they’ve been developed already (Delanie Walker for the Titans, TJ Hockenson on the Vikings, Hunter Henry on the Patriots, Zach Ertz on the Cardinals). The Packers may not want to draft a player who, despite being the best at his position in the draft, will potentially take a year or two or three to really reach his peak.
Grade: A-
- Reasoning: While Mayer plays a position that isn’t considered to be high value for an offense and can also take a couple seasons to develop, I still would be happy with this selection. Mayer has the tools and capability to become the safety blanket for this offense and put up consistent and steady production as a receiver and blocker. To be honest, I don’t think he’ll ever put up insanely athletic plays in the mold of prime Jimmy Graham or prime Rob Gronkowski; but, I do think that Mayer can become a perennial Pro-Bowler. The Packers don’t have a great history at the tight end position, you can argue that the best one was Ron Kramer back in 1957-1964 and he’s the only one with multiple All-Pros (1st team in 1962 and 2nd team in 1963) and we’ve never had a tight end who reached more than three Pro Bowls. Mayer could be the answer to the question: Who is the greatest Packers tight end of all time?
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