Today we are dissecting a mock draft from The Draft Network and discussing their Green Bay Packers selection. According to The Draft Network’s own analysis, the Green Bay Packers primary needs are wide receiver, tight end, offensive tackle, and edge rusher. I am inclined to agree with them for the most part, but I would sub out offensive tackle for safety – which they have listed as a secondary need. Pros, cons, and grades will be handed out based on positional value, prospect’s perceived value, player fit, and who was on the board when the selection was made.
The Pick:
- Lukas Van Ness, Edge Rusher, Iowa
- “With Rashan Gary coming back from injury and Preston smith entering into the bigger years of cap commitments as he gets into his 30s, having more off the edge feels like a proper need for the Packers. Lukas Van Ness would fit their body type on the edge quite well.” – Kyle Crabbs, TDN
- Prospect Profile
- Lukas Van Ness (6’5” – 265lbs) is an edge rusher from Iowa who never technically started a game for the Hawkeyes last season. Despite this, he racked up 7 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, 7 tackles for loss, and 14 tackles. He is incredibly physically gifted, and his athleticism allows him to apply that size, strength, and speed on the field and especially on pass rushing plays. He’s a high motor and high ceiling prospect, who could turn into a perennial Pro Bowler given the right environment and development.
Pros:
- Positional value. Edge rusher is a big need for the Packers in 2023. Rashan Gary tore his ACL in Week 9 – an injury that usually takes 9-12 months before the player is back on the field and sometimes even longer to fully recover from. Kickoff for the 2023 NFL season will be roughly 10 months after Gary was injured, so it’s possible he’s back by then but given how cautious the Packers were with David Bakhtiari when he got injured and how long it can take players who are larger to recover from lower body injuries, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gary wasn’t ready by Week 1. As noted by Crabbs, Preston Smith was the starting edge rusher opposite Gary, but he is getting older and had a good but not great year in 2022 (8.5 sacks, 38 tackles, 1 forced fumble per the NFL) and that’s reflected in his PFF grade of 66.4. Kingsley Enagbare replaced Gary as the starter opposite Smith and had 3 sacks and 31 tackles in 7 starts with a PFF grade of 61.4 so it’s safe to say that Packers wouldn’t mind upgrading their edge rusher room, so I think the positional value is definitely there in this mock draft.
- Prospect value. Lukas Van Ness is a player who has seen his stock rise in recent weeks as more scouts look at his tape, and he’s projected to go anywhere from middle of the first round to middle of the second round. Taking him at #15 isn’t terrible value for a player of Van Ness’ caliber.
- Player fit. Van Ness is the type of player that almost any team could use, including the Packers. I currently don’t expect him to make an immediate Pro Bowl level impact like some first rounders, but I do expect him to get better every year. My pro comparison for him was the same as TDN’s: Trey Hendrickson. I don’t think he’ll pop off early, but he’ll rotate through until he unlocks his potential and become a perennial 8-12 sack kind of player.
Cons:
- Players left on the board. Quentin Johnston, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Michael Mayer were all still on the board when Van Ness was selected. All three are offensive skill players that could greatly help the offense in 2023, especially if Aaron Rodgers is traded and Jordan Love ends up as the starter. Also, this would mean we end up with another wave of “The Packers haven’t selected a wide receiver since Javon Walker in 2002” comments throughout the Twitterverse. Brian Branch, a safety out of Alabama and the consensus best safety in the draft at the moment, was also on the board and there is a strong argument to be made that safety is a bigger need then edge rusher.
- Inexperience. A lack of starting experience, despite playing a fair number of snaps, means that the jump to the pro side may be bigger for him than it would be for others.
- Run defense. Van Ness struggles with block recognition and getting out of his blocks to make tackles, resulting in what would be big run gains at the NFL level. I fully believe he will improve on this as he plays more but it won’t help the Packers in the short term.
Grade: B-
- Final Verdict: Lukas Van Ness is a good prospect who could have a George Karlaftis-type pass rushing impact in his rookie year and he fills a need for a pass rusher. However, his lack of run defense won’t help Green Bay’s biggest defensive weakness. Furthermore, in this mock draft there were players on the board who filled similarly sized needs (wide receiver, safety, tight end) that would make an impact at an earlier stage than Van Ness will be able to because he still requires development.
