If followers, beat writers, and, heck, actual members of the 2023 Milwaukee Brewers were allowed to voice and/or address just one concern regarding the fate of their season, the vast majority would undoubtedly ponder and theorize on how the bullpen could either make or break their destiny. It is not hyperbole to say the 2022 version of the Brewers’ bullpen fizzled and limped to the October finish line; Milwaukee’s relievers blew 29 saves last season, the third-highest in baseball. Furthermore, according to Brew Crew Ball’s Jack Stern in his December 22, 2022 article, eighteen of those blown saves came after July 13, which coincided with the start of Josh Hader’s prolonged midseason slump and subsequent trade to the San Diego Padres. At the all-star break last season, the Brewers held a one-half-game lead over the Cardinals. Not coincidentally, the bullpen’s collapse coexisted with the team’s overall demise which saw them finish seven games behind St.Louis.
PITCH SPEEDS LED TO AN ILL-FATED OUTCOME FOR THE MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Pitching is not all about power. 95 down the middle does not hold the same sway as 95 on the corners; pitchers and realtors have the same motto for success: Location, location, location. However, the 95 mph barrier has statistically proven to be the line of demarcation between hitters’ success and failures.
According to Stern, in 2022, hitters batted .273 and 15.1% strikeout rate against such pitches (under 95 mph). Compare that to fastballs of at least 95 mph, which limited hitters to a .240 batting average and a 24.3% strikeout rate. Brewers’ relievers fared poorly in regard to this metric compared to the rest of baseball, with their average fastball velocity of 92.6 mph ranked 28th among all teams and checked in over a full mph south of the 93.9 mph league average for relievers. Again, throwing hard is not the end all, be all for pitchers. But without the luxury of a put-away fastball, more balls are put in play, which leads to a higher margin for error for the defense.
THIS YEAR’S CANDIDATES LOOK TO THROW HARDER
Brewers blogger and writer Adam McCalvy sees the bullpen as THE storyline for the spring. He notes that seven pitchers logged more than 30 relief innings for Milwaukee last season. Four of them, including Josh Hader, are gone. That is a huge chunk of innings that will need to be absorbed by the likes of Javy Guerra, Bryse Wilson, and others, but the contenders to win a job coming out of Arizona have considerably more mustard behind their pitchers than the 2022 staff. Eight of the bullpen candidates for next season average at least 95 mph with their fastballs, and seven meet or exceed the 95-mph threshold with at least 75% of their fastballs. Prospects Abner Uribe (average of 98.8 mph in the Arizona Fall League), Guerra (97.5 mph average last season with the Rays), and Elvis Peguero (96.4 mph with the Angels) hope to lead the bullpen’s quest to blaze fastballs past opposing hitters this year.
Arguably, the Brewers have more than just the bullpen question to consider this season. Their offense failed them in crucial situations and covering the losses of Hunter Renfroe, Kolten Wong, and Andrew McCutchen will be daunting. But, the success of the bullpen has proven to be an accurate measuring stick to gauge their overall success, and they are counting on some hard-throwing newcomers to punch a ticket to the postseason.
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