Wisconsin basketball (14-4) takes to the road Tuesday night when they square off against their hated neighbors, the Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-6). The tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. (EST) and will be aired on the Big Ten Network.
The Badgers are first in the Big Ten with a 6-1 conference record and currently ranked 13th in the nation after their 87-83 upset loss last week at Penn State. The Gophers are 10th in the league with a 3-4 conference mark.
Minnesota Backcourt
The Golden Gophers are led by a pair of juniors, 5’10” Elijah Hawkings (8.1 ppg, 7.8 apg, 2.6 turnovers per game) and 6’2″ Mike Mitchell (10.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.9 apg, 38% 3pt). The Howard-transfer Hawkins is a quite capable floor general, who leads the nation with his 7.8 assists per contest. He is also the team leader in minutes per game with 31.2. He’s been an outstanding acquisition for 3rd-year head coach Ben Johnson. Mitchell, a transplant from the WCC school Pepperdine, is more the scoring threat (3rd in the team in scoring) who has seen his scoring diminish a point a game since transferring to the rigors of the Big Ten.
Minnesota also mixes in 6’4″ sophomore Braeden Carrington (5.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.5 apg) at shooting guard and 6’6 freshman Cam Christie (10.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.1 apg) as a hybrid small forward/shooting guard. Carrington’s 4.1 rebounds per game are third on the team and Christie has been an instant impact freshman, scoring 18 points in his collegiate debut against UT-San Antonio and putting up 20 against New Orleans. Since conference play has started, however, his scoring has slowed down to a more freshman-like 8.3 ppg.
Minnesota Frontcourt
The front court is where the Gophers make their hay, led by their 6’11 junior Dawson Garcia (17.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.0 apg). Garcia, who was on the preseason Kareem Abdul-Jabbar award list for the nation’s top center, has been a force in the Big Ten since he transferred from UNC two seasons ago. This year, he has significantly improved his foul shooting.
The rest of the frontcourt is a rotation of 6’9″ Pharrel Payne (9.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.0 apg), 6’7″ Joshua Ola-Joseph (10.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 0.7 apg), and a 6’9″ forward from Germany, Isaiah Ihnen (4.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.6 apg).
This Gopher squad is a solid group, ranked 78th in the nation with 37.7 rebounds per game and 75th in limiting the opposing team’s rebounds (allowing foes to grab 33.0 boards a game. Defensively, Minnesota is 52nd in effective field goal percentage allowed with 47%. They excel in perimeter defense as well, only allowing 5.4 3-pointers made a game, which puts them at a stellar 14th in the country.
History and Analysis
Wisconsin has owned this series as of late, running up an 8-2 record over the past ten games, including winning the last six contests. However, this is a different Minnesota team, averaging the most points per game (77.2) in almost two decades. In addition, the Gophers are currently 9-1 ATS in their last ten home games. The line opened with Wisconsin being a 4.5-point favorite, with a 144.5-point total, and the spread is holding steady across the majority of sportsbooks, while there has been some downward movement of the total to a consensus of 142 points.
Any Big Ten fan, or overall basketball connoisseur, knows that winning on the road in conference is challenging, to say the least. Unfortunately for Minnesota, their strengths don’t negate Wisconsin’s strong points. Unlike a season ago, the Badgers are not relying on their long-distance shooting as much, instead utilizing their own front-court trio of veterans Tyler Wahl, Steven Crowl, and St. Johns-transfer A.J. Storr. The Badgers are much more opportunistic with their three-point shooting, rather than making that the focal point of their game.
If I were a betting man (and I am), I’d wager that the Badgers get the outright win but that the Golden Gophers keep it close and cover the spread. Final score: Wisconsin-71 Minnesota-69.
