Week 18 NFL games kick off this weekend. The 13-3 Packers will travel to Detroit to take on the 2-13-1 Lions. In this Packers and Lions betting preview we will take a look at what each team has to play for, records against the spread and the over under. This is the fourth time in the last six seasons that these two teams have squared off in the final game of the season. This season, however, is a bit different as this is the 17th game of the season under the NFLs expanded season.
What is each team playing for?
This time of year is tough as a better because teams either have a lot or nothing to play for. The Packers have already locked up the number one seed for the NFC but the starters are going to play in some capacity. Figuring out to what capacity the starts will play is tricky. It’s likely the Packers starters will get the first quarter, possibly the first half. Some players have contract incentives such as Preston Smith. Nevertheless, taking into consideration the amount starters will play is going to be important in deciding your bets.
The Lions are in the complete opposite end of the spectrum as an organization. Barring a miracle, Detroit is headed for the number two overall pick in the 2022 draft. As a team, Detroit has played hard for first year head coach, Dan Campbell. One of the lone bright spots for the Lions team has been the play of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Since December 5th, St. Brown has averaged 8.6 receptions and 90.2 yards per game. Look for St. Brown to end his rookie season with a strong showing against the Packer.
Here is the latest injury report from espn.com.
The Packers are getting healthier and at the right time for a deep playoff run. Aaron Jones and De’Vondre Campbell are listed as questionable but expected to play.
After a two game absence, Jared Goff is expected to return to action. Penei Sewell has been activated from the reserve COVID list but is still questionable with a thumb and illness.
Previous Matchup and Current Odds
These two teams played in Week 2 at Lambeau Field with Green Bay winning 35-17. The line closed at Packers -11.5 with an over/under of 49. Green Bay covered easily and just snuck over the total.
Currently, Green Bay is 3 point favorites with an over/under of 44.5. The uncertainty of how long Packers starters are going to play makes the decision difficult. The Jared Goff news will also factor more into the decision rather than if Tim Boyle got the start.
Each Team Against the Spread (ATS)
After Green Bays win last week, they now sit at a remarkable 12-4 ATS. Meanwhile, Detroit has been surprisingly good ATS. Detroit sits at 10-6 ATS which shouldn’t come as a surprise as they have been in more games than most people would have given them credit for at the beginning of the season.
Spread Pick: Packers -3
In the last 5 weeks, Detroit has been within three points exactly 1 time and that was their win against Minnesota. Detroit plays far better at home as their two wins came at Ford Field. Meanwhile, the Packers have won by three or more in three of their last five games. However, Detroit’s defense doesn’t scare any offense. If Rodgers and company only plays a half, that could be enough to keep the Lions far enough behind to cover the 3 points.
Over/Under Pick: Over 44.5
On the season, these two teams combine to average 44 points a game. The combine to give up a little more than 48 points per game. These two numbers bode will for this total to go over. Over the last 5 weeks, Detroit has averaged 22.8 points per game and Green Bay has averaged 34.6, respectfully. With Detroit playing well at home, this over should be a lock!