The Wisconsin Badgers have won two games in a row. They are still in the hunt for the Big Ten West title. Next up is the Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa has been playing some good football as of late too. Can the Badgers keep the Heartland Trophy and their Big Ten West hopes alive?
Time of Possession Matters
Both teams value the ball and want to wear down opposing defenses. I expect Iowa and Wisconsin to try and establish their running games. The Hawkeyes should be confident and they have a good running back in freshman Kaleb Johnson.
Whichever defense stays on the field longer will be at a disadvantage. Both defenses are fantastic. It should be a low scoring game and a ton of punts. One punt and one field position could make the difference.
Better Quarterback Play
I think it’s pretty simple. Whichever quarterback can play better will have the advantage. Iowa wants Graham Mertz to beat them. Wisconsin wants Spencer Petras to beat them. Mertz is prone to the turnover ball, but Spencer Petras has struggled a majority of the season. However, he has thrown for three touchdowns over the last two weeks.
I want Spencer Petras to beat Wisconsin. If it comes down to his right arm, I would feel good if I was the Badgers. Petras is only completing 55% of his passes and has thrown for only five touchdowns and five interceptions.
Establish The Running Game
Braelon Allen is one of the best running backs in Big Ten and the country. I also think Kaleb Johnson is one of the best young players in the Big Ten. These teams are similar in a lot of ways. They don’t want to have to win through the air, but wants to if it comes down to it.
Both teams will stick to their game plan and make sure their running attacks have every chance to get established.
The health of Braelon Allen will play a huge role. Allen aggravated a shoulder issue last week against Maryland. There’s no doubt he’ll be good to go but his work load might lessen. Expect more Isaac Guerendo who had a great game against Maryland.
Prediction
The Badgers and Hawkeyes have been playing the best football in the Big Ten West over the last two weeks. Only a month ago it seemed like both programs may not even make a bowl game. Now, both teams are very much alive in the Big Ten West. A loss all but eliminates the loser of this game.
To be blunt: Iowa has a damn good defense and they are one of the best in the country. Wisconsin will get all they can handle and then more. Not only do they have to establish the run game, but they have to make the Hawkeyes respect the pass game. Receivers have to win their matchups and tight ends need to find the soft spots.
The Badgers don’t have a bad defense by any stretch either. This unit is playing with a ton of confidence and they should be. They seem to be hitting their strides at the right time. Wisconsin has also seemed find their starting offensive line as well.
Kinnick Stadium is a nightmare for any program to walk into. The fans are loud and passionate. Iowa makes you play their pace and their style as well. Wisconsin can do that.
At the end of the day, I think I trust Graham Mertz more than Spencer Petras. I think Wisconsin can beat you multiple ways with multiple players. I think the Badger defense gets a late stand and Wisconsin runs out the clock. Give me the Badgers over the Hawkeyes by a field goal.
Wisconsin 20 Iowa 17
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