Here’s a scenario nearly every dynasty fantasy football owner goes through: The season has ended and you’re looking to scratch an itch by trading for a player you love. Player X is your target, but you think he’ll be too expensive since he ended the year high in the rankings. You click on the player’s profile, and shockingly, they finished well below where you thought. So, you offer a trade in line with the value. The other owner says not even close. Really? For a guy who’s good, but was an average fantasy player? Uggghhh.
Folks, this is literally Terry McLaurin. A player who seems to be one of the more coveted assets out there, yet doesn’t have that impressive of a resume.
Either way, the man we call F1 is my wide receiver pick for the High Rizer Series for the 2021 fantasy football season. If you missed who my picks were for quarterback and running back, check those out as well.
High Rizer Series
I will be discussing one player at each position who finished outside the range of an 1/2 (Top 24) at their position in 2020 that are candidates to potentially finish Top 12 (Number 1 rank).
For consistency, I will be using fantasypros.com‘s half-point PPR finishes for 2020, along with current 2021 ADP (average draft position) information from thefantasyfootballadvice.com.
Wide Receiver High Rizer – Terry McLaurin
So I’m going to have to clarify. Once again, I kind of cheated. I really need to stop, I know. It’s a bad habit.
According to Fantasy Pros, McLaurin finished 2020 ranked number 21 in half-point PPR leagues. Similar to my running back pick though, I’m including my home town’s dynasty league, where he finished as WR25 according to our scoring system. Plus, he was ranked 23 in standard scoring (non-PPR).
Combine all that, and you have a back end WR2 who you’d swear finished better than that.
Maybe you’re assuming McLaurin simply had a down year in 2020. He must have fared better in his rookie season, right? He put up some solid numbers with 58 catches, 919 yards and 7 touchdowns. But that was only good enough for a WR27 finish in half-point PPR leagues.
There’s always been a positive narrative surrounding F1, but his fantasy finishes have left owners a bit disappointed.
The kicker is, it hasn’t impacted where he’s being drafted heading into the 2021 campaign. Even though he’s finished ranked 27 and 21 in his first two years, his current ADP is wide receiver 10.
Why? Well, it’s all about upside.
2020 Recap
There are certain wide receivers who transcend their quarterback situation. As in, they succeed despite having a lackluster pass thrower. McLaurin has done his best to fall into that category.
His rookie season in 2019 saw none other than Dwayne Haskins and Case Keenum chuck him the rock. These two combined for 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Haskins averaged less than six air yards per attempt. If we know anything about McLaurin, it’s that he is a vertical threat.
Fast forward to 2020. A new coaching staff brought in a ton of new players, including the quarterback room. Four different QBs played throughout the season – Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Haskins and Taylor Heinicke.
As much as Smith’s story was great, and the fact that he led Washington to the playoffs, it was a hindrance for McLaurin’s fantasy football profile.
Out of Smith’s 168 completions, he averaged 3.7 air yards. Think about that. It’s no wonder why JD McKissic finished second among running backs in receptions with 80. F1 went from a 13.8 yard average depth of target (aDOT) in 2019 to under 9.9 in 2020. The vertical threat he poses to defenses was essentially nil, based on his quarterback.
McLaurin has had five quarterbacks, two offensive coordinators and two head coaches in his first two years in the league.
To put a cherry on top, recently the speedster admitted to playing last season hurt. He missed just one game total, but told Jim Rome in an interview that he dealt with two ankle sprains.
Again, throw all of this information into a bowl, mix it around, and you still have a WR21 finish in half-point PPR leagues. Impressive.
What makes it even more salivating is what Washington did at the quarterback position during the 2021 offseason.
2021 Outlook
Although I just mentioned that some wide outs transcend quarterbacks, it always helps when they don’t have to. It looks like that might be the case for McLaurin in 2021.
The seasoned vet Ryan Fitzpatrick has been tasked to lead Washington’s offense. It’s a sight for sore eyes for McLaurin, and really that entire offense.
Sure, “Fitz-magic” is bound to have dud games and turnovers at inopportune times, but there will also be instances where Washington’s offense looks like a fantasy owner’s dream.
Fitzpatrick is frequently in the Top 15 in aDOT – with the exception of 2020. In his last full season in 2019, he was 12th in deep ball attempts and 11th in aDOT. We’ve also seen him support alpha wideouts and target them frequently, including players like Stevie Johnson in Buffalo, Brandon Marshall in New York, Mike Evans in Tampa Bay, and most recently Devante Parker in Miami.
I know this isn’t a Ryan Fitzpatrick High Rizer article. But still, the information is necessary when it comes to F1. He now has a guy who will take chances, use his best wide receiver, and look vertical.
Terry McLaurin’s rookie season highlight reel is 🔥 pic.twitter.com/watHgXSJSb
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) June 29, 2021
The addition of free agent Curtis Samuel, rookie slot receiver Dyami Brown, as well as the development of second year running back Antonio Gibson should not hinder McLaurin’s output. Instead, the offense will likely get more red zone opportunities. McLaurin had just 9 red zone catches in 2020, ranking him number 42 overall, according to NFLsavant.com.
What 2021 will bring McLaurin and the rest of the Washington offense is potential. All fantasy owners ask for is opportunity, and that’s what is coming his way.
Where to Draft McLaurin
As mentioned before, F1 is being taken as the wide receiver 10 overall, and his draft position is around the beginning to middle of the third round.
In redraft, I’d be wishing for a Top 3 pick. You can take care of your running backs right away. Say you pair up Dalvin Cook and then Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the snake around. Your spot comes right back up in the beginning of the third round. You should have a wide receiver like McLaurin staring at you in the face. Nobody would bat an eye if you picked him there. It’s a bit of a price to pay for a guy who hasn’t ever finished in the Top 20, but the upside is hard to pass up.
In terms of dynasty, McLaurin is 25 years old and in his third season on a rookie deal. It’s important for dynasty owners to keep track of the quarterback situation in Washington. Fitzpatrick is likely a one year layover until they find a replacement.
McLaurin will have a successful career no matter who is behind center, but having a complimentary quarterback will allow him to reach his upside.
In dynasty startups, he’s actually going around the third or fourth wide receiver and about 16 overall (pick 2.04).
The summation of the story is this: Terry McLaurin has not finished better than WR21 in his two year career, yet is being drafted as if he were going to bust out in year three. You will have to pay a premium to get him, and I say, it’ll be worth it.
Fantasy Finish Prediction for Terry McLaurin: Wide Receiver #6
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