The Championship Run Begins
The 58-24 Milwaukee Bucks take on the 44-38 Miami Heat Sunday afternoon in beautiful Downtown Milwaukee at home at the Fiserv Forum. Game time is 4:30 CST. In the regular season the Bucks were 32-9 at home. Miami was 17-24 on the road.
Fans will have to wait all the way until Wednesday, April 19th for Game Two of this series.
The regular season series was split between the two clubs. Milwaukee won the last two; Miami won the first two. (Home in home wins.) The best indicator of where these two teams are at may be that Feb. 24th game that Milwaukee won 128-99. In that game Giannis only played six minutes. But Jrue Holiday really feasted on some weak Miami guard play and went 9-14 for 24 points. At no point was that game ever close.
While Miami will have some momentum as they have played recently (Friday’s win against Chicago), Milwaukee should be well-rested. Expect a “playoff-ready” starting line-up of Giannis, Jrue, Bobby, Brook and Jae. (Both Khris Middleton and Grayson Allen are listed as “doubtful”.) If you do any type of sports betting, bet on Brook and Bobby to go “over” their predicted game totals.
There are some interesting team stats that jump out at you right away with these two squads. Miami scored a league worst 109 points per game. They have, arguably, the worst offense in the NBA. They have a “grind it out” style that leans heavy on defense. The Bucks can play a similar-style if need be but won’t want to if they can avoid it. (Enter Jae Crowder.)
Instead, Milwaukee will want to establish their identity on the glass and defensive-end early. Milwaukee was the best team rebounding squad in the league (48.6 rebounds per game). Miami was 27th in team rebounding with just over 40. Milwaukee will want to turn rebounds and stops into threes. That is what they do.
The keys for the Bucks
Don’t Turn the Basketball Over
Miami was decent in not turning the ball over this season. They were 9th in the NBA. (13.5 per game).
The Bucks improved throughout the season but still finished 22nd in the NBA in team turnovers.
Milwaukee has had some high turnover games in the NBA regular season. For example, in a game against Toronto on Jan. 4th, Giannis alone had 12 turnovers. Winning the “turnover battle” in the NBA is also a very real thing. Milwaukee needs to do that to win.
Milwaukee is the type of team that can have 12 or 13 turnovers or can play sloppy and have 19-20 turnovers. If we watch the latter, then Miami will have more of a chance.
Related: Bucks mini-regular season recap
“Move your feet”- don’t reach
If you regularly read this space you know we were a little obsessed with Milwaukee’s quest to win the team rebounding title. Milwaukee did that and is the best rebounding team in the NBA.
Another hidden factor, outside of rebounding, that can have an impact is sticking to those tried and true fundamentals and not fouling. Officiating and fouls always play a role in any NBA playoff game.
The great news is Milwaukee was second, overall, in the NBA in team fouls (18.0 per game.) However, Miami was third. Whoever fouls less will have an advantage in this game.
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The Opponent: The Miami Heat
Why does Miami feel a little more “down” this year than last season? While still a dangerous match-up, Miami feels like they have more of a big “two and a half” than a big three. They also have not gotten much production out of anyone else other than Herro, Butler, and Bam Adebayo. Max Struss and Duncan Robinson simply did not have good seasons. Struss barely averaged 11 points a game and Robinson averaged six a game. Kyle Lowry was injured for much of the year.
One of Miami’s “big two and a half” is Tyler Herro. Herro is a Milwaukee native, having attended Whitnall High School in Greenfield Wisconsin. Herro, at the time, made a controversial move by verbally decommitting from the Wisconsin Badgers to attend the University of Kentucky. Hindsight being 20/20, the move could not have worked out better for him. He recently signed a 4 yr $130 million dollar contract extension. He is expecting his second child; his hoops career has been gang busters, and he is only 23 years old. His recent home purchase was in the news.
Herro had great stats this year averaging 20/5/4 a game consistently.
All-star Bam Adebayo is part of Miami’s big “two and a half”. Averaging 20/9/3, he is the Heat’s leading rebounder and rim protector.
Adebayo does a good job of bringing the ball up, similar to a “point-forward” style.
The “half” is Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Butler has been a bonafide star for Miami. The 33 year old has had a wonderful NBA career. However, unlike Herro, his career stats against Milwaukee are not as strong (15/4/4). That doesn’t mean he won’t be up to play. He is averaging 21 points a game this season, above his career average. But what the Heat get from him, production-wise, will mean everything to their hopes of defeating the #1 seed Bucks.
Eric Spolstra is still coaching for Miami. (First season was in 1997). He has won two NBA Championships with Miami and has helped instill a “heat culture” which is well-renowned in NBA circles. Basically, it goes like this: Miami is a great place to party. Heat players/fans/staff kinda lure the other team over to the party while the Heat players have this secret, killer long practices. Something like that…
Things to tell your buddies as you are watching the game
- Giannis in his career vs Miami does not have stats that jump off the page at you. (18/9/5). But Brook Lopez, in 40 career games, has played well against Miami. He has averaged over 17 points per game and all of the numbers point to him playing better against the Heat than most teams.
- The Miami Heat have been around for 35 years. They have made the playoffs in 23 of those seasons.
- The Milwaukee Bucks have been around for 55 years. They have made the playoffs in 34 seasons.
- If you are looking for tons more, check out some of the Heat game previews we wrote earlier this season.
- The Bucks made all these moves and did all of these things to be ready for these NBA playoff moments. Right now the Bucks are the odds on betting favorites to win another NBA title.
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