Garrett Mitchell broke onto the scene with his first MLB start on August 28th, 2022 against the Chicago Cubs. He immediately made his presence felt, hitting a 2 RBI single to give the Brewers a 3-2 lead against the Cubs for his first big-league hit. The following day, he hit his first big-league home run against the Pirates, a clutch 2R HR to tie the game in the bottom of the 8th. The Brewers would walk-off as winners in the following inning (courtesy a 2R HR by Keston Hiura).
The following weeks, however, were a different story. Between 8-30 and 9-11, Mitchell recorded just 2 hits in 25 PA, slashing just .091/.200/.136. The highlight of his frustrating days at the plate are summarized by a staggering 52% K-rate, rarely putting the ball into play. However, he fared much better for the remainder of the season, slashing a remarkable .429/.474/.571 over his final 39 PA of the season. Additionally, he dropped his K-rate to 35.9% in this time span. Because of his surge to end the season, he finished with a .311/.373/.459 slash line. That’ll play.
The Keys to a 2023 NL ROY Campaign
Now, Mitchell and the Brewers look ahead to the 2023 season. Garrett Mitchell will certainly be on the opening day roster and will likely be an everyday starter in CF, with projections of Yelich in LF, Tyrone Taylor in RF, and Jesse Winker at DH. With bountiful playing time ahead of Mitchell, he will certainly aim to reproduce his end of season efforts in 2023 in a larger sample size. If he is able to do that, there is little reason why he wouldn’t be on the short list of NL ROY contenders.
Given his plus plus speed, he is a threat to make big plays in the outfield a la Lorenzo Cain and be a menace on the base paths a la Christian Yelich. Mitchell was 8-for-8 in SB attempts in his 28 games, which projects to over 40 SB in an entire season of play. Mitchell’s speed and threat on the bases is an added benefit for a contact hitter like himself.
While logging an extremely high BABIP of .541 in 2022 (MLB average ≈ .300), Mitchell should naturally rate higher in BABIP due to his speed saving him from some outs. While this will likely regress in 2023, the degree of this expectation is unclear due to the banning of the shift in 2023 (and beyond), which should elevate BABIP across all of MLB. Add in a little bit of coaching to reduce his K-rate, and Garrett Mitchell could prove to be a vital factor in the NL Central and NL ROY races.
With all that said, Garrett Mitchell has all the tools to produce at a high level. For the sake of argument, suppose Mitchell is able to produce a slightly lower slash line than his 2022 season total in the range of .285/.340/.425, adjusting for a larger sample size and some regression in BABIP. Adding in the value of his stolen bases, compare this to the ROY winners in the past two seasons. Mitchell would rate on-par in many categories, and make up for his lack of power with his speed on the bases, putting his total effort within the realm of a ROY campaign.
Year | Player |
BA | OBP | SLG | SB |
2021 | Randy Arozarena (TB) | .274 | .356 | .459 | 20 |
2021 | Jonathan India (CIN) | .269 | .376 | .459 | 12 |
2022 | Julio Rodríguez (SEA) | .284 | .345 | .509 | 25 |
2022 | Michael Harris II (ATL) | .297 | .339 | .514 | 20 |
2023 | Garrett Mitchell (Possibly) | .285 | .340 | .425 | 40 |
What Could Stop Him from Winning
Despite this, there are many things that could prevent Mitchell from becoming the 4th Brewer to win a ROY award. Even if the projection above becomes a reality, another rookie in the league could simply perform better and be more deserving of the award. Additionally, if Mitchell were to slash BBRef’s projected .267/.335/.429, he would likely be out of the running. That’s not to say this would or should be considered a failed season, as such a line would be a great first step into Mitchell’s big-league career. However, the biggest threat of all to Garrett Mitchell’s ROY chances may not come from outside of the Brewers, rather from within: fellow OF Sal Frelick.
Sal Frelick should begin the year at AAA-Nashville, but is likely to be promoted to the big-league club sooner rather than later. In fact, per rotowire, Sal Frelick is the 7th most-favored player to win the award (+1200), whereas Garrett Mitchell is only on the books at BetMGM (+2500), and is otherwise off the books at other top betting sites. Sal Frelick’s potential was unleashed last year, surging from A+ to AAA all within the 2022 season.
Sal Frelick only got better as his 2022 season progressed, finishing with a .365/.435/.508 slash line in AAA at just 22 years old. If Sal Frelick shows up and puts up a great line with power at the same time, Mitchell could have a great season but not even have the best rookie season on his own team.
Needless to say, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic for Garrett Mitchell in 2023 and beyond. That will remain true regardless if his name is etched into the history books as the 2023 NL ROY or not.
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