Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been a top 5 player in the league for the past six years, is one of three players who can legitimately hold the title of best player. Antetokounmpo is a two-time league MVP and five-time all-NBA first-team selection. The 2019-20 NBA Defensive Player of the Year is also a member of the NBA 75th Anniversary Team.
Despite Antetokoumpo’s greatness, Milwaukee has not necessarily had the success that one could expect. The Bucks have been fantastic during the regular season over these six years, accumulating an Association-best 318 victories and five division titles. While the Bucks are 59-52 in the playoffs and have one NBA championship during this stretch, they have reached the Eastern Conference finals only one other time. Milwaukee became just the sixth No. 1 seed to lose in the first round of the playoffs last season when they fell to the Atlantic Hawks in five games.
Milwaukee is 8-9 over their last two playoff runs. The Boston Celtics upended the Bucks in seven games of the 2021-22 semifinals. The Bucks led that series 3-games-to-2 before losing the final two contests by double-figures, including Game 7 by 28.
Can Antetokounmpo and the Bucks reverse their postseason fortune this season? Many pundits are betting he and they can.
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo Lead The Milwaukee Bucks to Success in 2023-24; Insights and Predictions
Milwaukee Off To A Strong Start
Despite Milwaukee’s disappointing finish to the 2022-23 campaign, the Bucks went all out to convince Antetokounmpo that they were committed to winning. The Bucks re-signed Khris Middleton, despite the 32-year-old forward coming off a major injury and his shooting efficiency declining, and 35-year-old Brook Lopez. They also made arguably the biggest offseason splash by acquiring 7-time all-star Damian Lillard. On October 23, Antetokounmpo signed a three-year, $177 million extension with the team.
Milwaukee, the first team to have a “Big 4”, has gotten off to a solid start to the campaign. The Bucks own one of the best records in the league at 19-7 and sit in second place in the Eastern Conference, 1.5 games behind the conference-leading Boston Celtics.
Milwaukee has been playing well of late. The Bucks are 14-3 over their last 17 contests, with seven wins by double figures. This includes a galvanizing victory over the Indiana Pacers on December 13.
“When stuff happens, whether it’s extremely serious or it’s small, any time you can get into something and you can look over and see people got your back and they’re with you, it changes things,” Lillard told The Athletic’s Eric Nehm. “… I think (Wednesday), for our team, it was just a step in that direction where we kind of — we were with each other, so I’m not saying that’s going to make us the world’s greatest, but it was a step in the right direction.”
The Bucks are one of the top-scoring and shooting teams in the league. They are second in the NBA in scoring at 124.4 points, second in field goal percentage (50.3%), and fourth in 3-point percentage (38.3%).
Starting Five
A big reason for Milwaukee’s scoring output is due to their starters. The Bucks starting unit is the third in the league in offensive efficiency and rated 10th best overall. The starting five produces 91.0 points (third most), 28.9 rebounds, and 18.3 assists. All five starters average double-figures. The Bucks own a +3.8 scoring margin when the first unit is on the court together, which is sixth-best in the league
Antetokounmpo leads the way as he is playing at a career-high level on the offensive end. Antetokounmpo is on pace to set personal-best marks in points and efficiency as he is averaging 31.4 points a game with a shooting slash line of .618/.223/.665. The 29-year-old forward poured in a Bucks franchise-record 64 points against Indiana on Wednesday. He has scored 30 or more points 15 times this season, including a pair of 50-point contests. Antetokounmpo tallied a personal-best three 50-point games last season.
Antetokounmpo is also playing well defensively and hitting the glass. He has posted 18 double-doubles and averages 11.0 boards a game. He also compiles 5.0 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks per contest.
Defensively, Antetokounmpo – as the primary defender – is limiting opponents to a field goal percentage of 46.3%, 1.4% below the NBA average. Antetokounmpo thrives defensively at the rim, as opponents are shooting 11.7% below average when they are six feet or closer. Opponents are shooting about -7.5 worse against Antetokounmpo than the league average when they are within 10 feet of the hoop.
Damian Lillard has taken the role of sidekick for the first time in his career and has thrived in that role offensively. Lillard has increased his scoring average by nearly two points over the last two games and compiles 25.8 points a game. The 33-year-old guard is shooting 43.6% from the field and 36.2% from the 3-point line. He is doling out 7.1 assists while committing fewer than three turnovers a contest. Lillard has scored 20-plus points 19 times and has five double-doubles in his 24 appearances.
Middleton, who got off to a slow start, and Lopez are doing what they usually do offensively, which is providing between 12 and 15 points a game. More importantly, the duo provides floor spacing, which is extremely important as it gives Antetokounmpo and Lillard the room to do their thing. Lopez is also providing excellent rim protection once again, with three blocks a game, though he continues to struggle when guarding on the perimeter.
Malik Beasley was an essentially even swap with Grayson Allen at shooting, though Beasley is much more explosive offensively. Beasley is canning three treys a game at a 45.8% clip.
However, there are causes for concern. It starts on the defensive end for the Bucks.
Defense
Over the past five years under Mike Budenholzer, the one thing that could be guaranteed about the Bucks’ is that they would be solid on the defensive end. Under coach Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks ranked in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency all five years, including finishing atop the rankings twice and fourth once.
Milwaukee’s defense isn’t anywhere near those levels this year. The Bucks are 21st in the league, allowing 115.6 points per 100 possessions. While Antetokounmpo and Lopez are doing their thing on the defensive end, the loss of Jrue Holiday was huge. Holiday, a five-time all-defensive team selection, is known as a lockdown defender. Holiday will also get steals, which is something Lillard doesn’t do. As good as Lillard is offensively, he is known that much of a liability defensively.
Granted, Lillard has been pretty good defensively this season individually, though he still needs to be a better team defensive guy. The same can be said about Beasley, who also has been pretty good individually defensively. Middleton has lost a step defensively and struggles guarding the 3-point line, but he is still a physical defender.
The most significant difference from this year to last year is the bench defense. The Bucks don’t have pesky Jevon Carter on the perimeter or savvy veteran Joe Ingles. Plus, Jae Crowder, a physical low defender in the low post, has only played nine games due to injuries, and Pat Connaughton has missed some games and has struggled a little bit defensively. Therefore, rookie Andre Jackson Jr., second-year AJ Green, and Cam Payne have had to play more than expected, and all have struggled defensively.
Rebounding and Transition Defense
Defensive rebounding has arguably been Milwaukee’s most prominent issue on that end. The Bucks are grabbing only 70.9% of all available defensive rebounds, which ranks 18th in the NBA. Thus, their opponents are grabbing nearly 29% of all available boards and converting those opportunities into 15.0 second-chance points (9th most).
Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, and Middleton have done an excellent job on the defensive glass. But no other regular regular is grabbing 14% of the available defensive boards. Lopez is struggling on defensive boards, collecting just 11.7% of the available caroms, which is a career-low. Lopez grabbed 15.4% of all the available defensive rebounds last season.
Transition defense is also an issue for the Bucks. The Bucks allow 14.6 fast break points, the 10th most in the league.
Conclusion
Yes, Antetokoumpo can lead Milwaukee to success in 2023-24. The Bucks are an immensely talented offensive team. However, the East is loaded, with Boston and Philadelphia being the Bucks’ chief competitors. Still, the Bucks should coast to their sixth straight Central Division title.
Milwaukee is one of the best teams at home, owning a 14-2 record at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks are 9-4 against teams with at least a .500 record (third best), 3-2 in games decided by one possession, and 1-1 in overtime contests.
The Bucks’ defense isn’t as bad as their numbers indicate, at least their starters. The Bucks are holding their opponents to 46.9% shooting from the field and 35.5% from the 3-point line, ranking in the league’s top half.
Coach Adrian Griffin does have to make a few defensive adjustments to help solidify their team’s defense and help put them in a better position to rebound the ball. An adjustment in philosophy and scheme will help the Bucks with their rebounding and keep their opponents off the foul line by limiting second-chance opportunities.
While the Bucks could use an upgrade at backup point guard, health will be the most important thing for the Bucks going forward.
Middleton, who is still working his way back from offseason surgery, is only averaging 22 minutes a game, Crowder is out until mid-January while Connaughton is averaging fewer than 17 minutes a game as he is struggling shooting the ball. Portis, Crowder, and Connaughton are veterans with championship experience. MarJon Beauchamp has shown enough improvement that Griffin should be comfortable playing the youngster in emergency playoff situations.
If Griffin makes the necessary adjustments and Antetokounmpo and Lillard remain healthy, there is no reason the Bucks can’t reach at least the Eastern Conference finals.
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