The Green Bay Packers are in desperate need of a wide receiver after trading away Davante Adams and losing Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the Chiefs in free agency. They are left with Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, and Amari Rodgers to catch passes from the back to back MVP in Aaron Rodgers. It is widely believed the Packers not only take a receiver but take two receivers in their first 6 draft choices at the end of April. So what can Packer fans expect from rookie wide receivers taken in the first or second round?
1st round receivers
Although fans might think that a 1st round receiver is easily able to step in and contribute to a team immediately, that’s not always the case. I went through the last 3 years of 1st round draft picks and here are the results.
(all numbers are rounded to the nearest whole)
2019
Marquise brown – pick 25 — 46 receptions, 584 yards, 7 touchdowns
N’keal Harry – pick 32 — 12 Receptions, 105 yards, 2 touchdowns
Average: 29 receptions, 345 yards, 5 touchdowns
2020
Henry Ruggs III – pick 12 — 26 receptions, 452 yards, 2 touchdowns
Jerry Jeudy – pick 15 — 52 receptions, 856 yards, 3 touchdowns
Ceedee Lamb – pick 17— 74 receptions, 935 yards, 5 touchdowns
Jalen Reagor – pick 21— 31 receptions, 396 yards, 1 touchdown
Justin Jefferson – pick 22 — 88 receptions, 1400 yards, 7 touchdowns
Brandon Aiyuk – pick 25 — 60 receptions, 748 yards, 5 touchdowns
Average: 55 receptions, 798 yards, 4 touchdowns
2021
Jamar Chase – pick 5 — 81 receptions, 1455 yards, 13 touchdowns
Jaylen Waddle – pick 6 — 104 receptions, 1015 yards, 6 touchdowns
DeVonta Smith – pick 10 — 64 reception, 916 yards, 5 touchdowns
Kadarius Toney – pick 20 — 39 receptions, 420 yards, 0 touchdowns
Rashad Batemen – pick 27— 46 receptions, 515 yards, 1 touchdown
Average: 67 receptions, 864 yards, 5 touchdowns
2nd round receivers
Second-round receivers are VERY hit or miss. Some like DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel have become stars in the league but others have drifted off and are barely holding onto roster spots right now. One reason some of these guys were taken in the second round is the fact that they were “boom or bust” prospects.
(all numbers are rounded to the nearest whole)
2019
Deebo Samuel – pick 36 — 57 receptions, 802 yards, 3 touchdowns
AJ Brown – pick 41 — 52 receptions, 1051 yards, 8 touchdowns
Mecole Hardman – pick 56 — 26 receptions, 538 yards, 6 touchdowns
Paris Campbell – pick 59 — 18 receptions, 127 yards, 1 touchdown
Andy Isabella – pick 62 — 9 receptions, 189 yards, 1 touchdown
DK Metcalf – pick 64 — 58 receptions, 900 yards, 7 touchdowns
Average: 37 receptions, 601 yards, 4 touchdowns
2020
Tee Higgins – pick 33 — 67 receptions, 908 yards, 6 touchdowns
Michael Pittman JR – pick 34 — 40 receptions, 503 yards, 1 touchdown
Lavishka Shaunolt – pick 42— 58 receptions, 600 yards, 5 touchdowns
KJ Hamler – pick 46— 30 receptions, 381 yards, 3 touchdowns
Chase Claypool – pick 49— 62 receptions, 873 yards, 9 touchdowns
Van Jefferson – 57— 19 receptions, 220 yards, 1 touchdown
Denzel Mims – 59 — 23 receptions, 357 yards, 0 touchdowns
Average: 43 receptions, 549 yards, 4 touchdowns
2021
Elijah Moore – pick 34 — 43 receptions, 538 yards, 5 touchdowns
Rondale Moore – pick 49 — 54 receptions, 435 yards, 1 touchdown
D’wayne Eskridge – pick 56 — 10 receptions, 64 yards, 1 touchdown
Tutu Atwell – pick 57 — 10 receptions, 54 yards, 0 touchdowns
Terrace Marshall Jr – pick 59 — 17 receptions, 138 yards, 0 touchdowns
Average: 27 receptions, 246 yards, 1 touchdown
As you can see, some players really show up on day one. Guys like Chase and Waddle are able to do that. But, guys taken toward the end of round 1 and the end of round 2 have struggled to produce early on. The reality is rookie receivers will struggle occasionally. Even if you look at the year Chase had this year and thought “he’s a top 5 receiver” well he also lead the league in drops.
What to expect?
I expect the Packers to take a receiver in round 1 and one in round 2. The Packers are looking to replace more than 140 receptions and 1400 yards from losing Adams and MVS. Obviously, guys like Lazard and Amari Rodgers will have to step up but what can Packer fans expect from rookies?
They lost two high-quality players and need to replace them immediately. So based on averages Packers fans should expect
Round 1 receiver averages
50 receptions, 669 yards, 5 touchdowns
Round 2 receiver averages
36 receptions, 465 yards, 3 touchdowns.
The Packers will still need guys to step up but by taking a receiver in the 1st and 2nd round they at least make a big dent into replacing Adams and MVS. Plus, they give the back-to-back MVP weapons to make some plays.
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