Heading into their first round matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles, the Green Bay Packers have shifted to 5 or 5.5-point underdogs at most sportsbooks, up from 4 to 4.5 earlier this week. The total has dropped from 47 to 45.5.
For both teams, it has been a week of closely followed, constantly updated player injuries. Below is a rundown of Friday’s report.
Packers QB Jordan Love has been cleared to play after hurting his elbow in Week 18 against the Bears. Jalen Hurts has been cleared to go under center for the Eagles after completing concussion protocol for a head injury sustained in Week 16. Both QBs were full participants in Friday’s practice.
Also of note, Packers linebacker Quay Walker, safety Evan Williams, tackle Andre Dillard, and defensive linemen Brenton Cox and TJ Slaton are all questionable. Of these, all were limited participants Friday except for Dillard, who participated in full. WR Christian Watson is out, as is CB Jaire Alexander. That is old news. Safety Zayne Anderson will not play either (concussion).
Eagles WR AJ Brown was a full participant on Friday. Dealing with a tight back, WR Devonta Smith logged a DNP but has not been officially designated on the injury report.
On to the betting lines.
How Lines Have Moved During the Week
Green Bay opened as just 3.5-point underdogs Sunday evening despite the uncertainty surrounding the status of Love and Watson. Though anticipated to play, Hurts had not yet cleared protocol for Philadelphia, adding more noise to the ruckus.
That 3.5 shot up almost immediately to 4 to 4.5 and briefly to 5.5 before coming back down. For most of the week, it had hovered around 4.5 before ticking back up today.
Some books now list Green Bay at over +200 on the moneyline after going as low as +150. With Watson ruled out for the season on Monday, with the Packers getting some good news on defensive players like Walker and Williams, and with Love confirmed a go, it is interesting to see this movement.
While not a 100% shot to play, that Hurts would start was generally assumed, despite Adam Schefter’s reports during the week keeping his status up in the air.
Packers coach Matt LaFleur also indicated that Love would be good to go against the Eagles only hours after the Bears game, but it was not immediately apparent whether he would suffer lingering effects. It does not appear that either QB will be much impacted by their respective ailments.
AJ Brown missed Thursday practice after being limited Wednesday by the knee injury he’s been dealing with, but this was reportedly just for rest reasons. Maybe his DNP induced some hesitation among Philly backers that cleared up today. Smith’s absence, though, might be stressing out some Eagles fans.
All of this is to say that injury updates and line movement seem to be headed in opposite directions. If anything, the updates have benefited the Packers while their odds have grown longer.
Bettors Don’t Believe in Green Bay Packers, Jordan Love?
The market seems to be confident in the Eagles. The betting public has not hammered Philadelphia (60% of tickets) like they have done with the Chargers versus the Texans (73%), but they are the considerably more popular side.
It is possible that substantial professional money has also come down on Philly, pushing the number up. Typically, though, “sharp” bettors do not pile onto public sides or sizable favorites. The early week move up from -3.5 makes sense, especially given murky injury status on the Packers’ side of things, but that extra point makes a considerable difference in a tight market at this point in the week. Maybe people in the know really liked the Eagles anyway as 4.5-point favorites.
At +-5.5, the play would have to be Packers or nothing.
Whatever the case, it seems that the majority do not have faith in Green Bay to stay within margin, much less pull off the road upset. Given how they have looked in big games lately, losing most recently to the Vikings in Week 17 and Detroit in Week 14 (albeit by a combined 5 points), the Packers are certainly at a buy-low point. Whether or not they are underrated now or overrated then is another discussion. At this point in the season, it is hard to find a line skewed one way or the other.
Still, and even more so in the face of doubt, Love and company have a chance to remind the world–or rather to prove, given Green Bay’s 3-5 record against above .500 foes–what this team is made of.
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