Riding high on a 5-game win streak, including consecutive W’s over Purdue and Illinois, the Wisconsin Badgers have climbed to a 21-5 record (11-4) and third place in the Big Ten, a game behind the Spartans and 1.5 back of the Wolverines.
Despite trailing in the conference standings, the Badgers are the highest-ranked Big Ten program at #11, followed by Michigan, Purdue, and MSU in slots 12-14.
AP Poll voters seem to see what the raw standings do not. And they might not hold Wisconsin in high enough esteem.
Traditional Stats Show Wisconsin Badgers To Be Strong Squad, But They Don’t Capture the Full Picture
It is no secret that the Badgers hang their caps on offense, exemplified in their 95-74 throttling of Illinois on Tuesday and their 94-84 victory over Purdue last weekend. In those games, senior guard John Tonje dropped 31 and 32 points, respectively, and his 19.6 PPG ranks third among Big Ten scorers.
As a team, Wisconsin is fourth in the conference in points scored at 82 per game. They lead the Big Ten in free throw percentage (83.4%), three pointers made (10.3) and fewest turnovers committed (9.8).
Among the top three teams, only the Badgers boast two 15 PPG scorers, in Tonje and sophomore John Blackwell (15.2).
But KenPom rankings, widely recognized as the most accurate measure of team performance, look upon them even more favorably.
More Precise Metrics Make Badgers a Top Ten Team Ahead of Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans
Seventh in the nation with an overall 27.70 net rating, which is adjusted for opponents and scored on a per 100 possessions basis, the Badgers are the only Big Ten team in the top ten. Purdue (12th, MSU (13th), Maryland (14th), Michigan (20th), and Illinois (21st) all trail the big U of W.
In offensive rating, the Badgers sit 6th, compared to 8th for Purdue, 20th for Michigan, and 24th for the Spartans. Defense is where they show some slippage, trailing MSU (14th) and UMich (22nd) at 40th nationally, but their offensive output more than makes up for the the disadvantage.
By net rating, Wisconsin has also faced tougher competition than either of the Big Ten’s top two schools. Theirs has been the 15th toughest slate overall, compared to 27th and 41st for the Wolverines and Spartans. While the Badgers lost to Michigan back in early December, 67-64, they still have a date in Lansing on Sunday, March 2, to prove their worth against the Big Ten’s best.
With Michigan and MSU set to square off twice before season’s end, they could benefit from the fallout of those games to reach second–or higher–in the standings by the time the Big Ten tourney kicks off.
Of Wisconsin’s five losses, only two of which have occurred since December 10, three have to come to ranked foes–#12 Michigan, #16 Marquette, and #20 Maryland. The other two opponents, UCLA and the Illini, both received top 25 votes in the latest poll.
Their last five games of the season feature only one ranked matchup, that face off with the Spartans–which is also the only one involving an opponent above .500 in conference play. If the Badgers just take of business, they should find themselves in great shape heading into tournament action.
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