The Green Bay Packers currently sit third in the NFC North at 11-4, but they have a chance to leapfrog the Minnesota Vikings in Week 18 with a win this Sunday and some help from division-leading Detroit. A loss, on the other hand, risks falling to the 7th seed in the NFC if the Washington Commanders (10-5) win out.
After opening as 2-point favorites, Green Bay is now a 1.5-point underdog on the road. As of Friday evening, they are drawing 57% of betting tickets.
The final injury report indicates that they will be without CB Jaire Alexander (knee), S Evan Williams (quad) and LB Quay Walker (ankle). WR Christian Watson is also questionable with a knee injury after logging DNPs in practice throughout the week.
Minnesota will be missing CB Fabian Moreau, with LB Ivan Pace questionable to come back from IR despite being a full participant in practice.
Green Bay will attempt to fight through their injury disadvantage and avenge their 31-29 loss at home in Week 4.
Playoff Seeding Matters for the Packers: Best-Case Scenario
Regardless of what happens on Sunday, Green Bay cannot win the division and will have to settle for a wild card berth. Whether that is as the 5th, 6th, or 7th seed will substantially impact the likelihood that they advance from the first round. No matter what, they are playing well enough to have a shot against anyone, but there is no question that head coach Matt LeFleur would rather game-plan for the Falcons or Buccaneers than the Eagles, Vikings, or Rams.
Scenario #1 (optimum): To make a go at stealing the 5-seed from their 13-2 division rival, the Packers will have to beat the Vikings and Bears to close out the season. If the Packers and Vikings finish tied, Green Bay will rank above them by virtue of tiebreaker rules. Both teams would have 13 wins and the same head-to-head and in-division records, but Green Bay’s 8-0 mark in common games would give them the edge.
For this to happen, Jordan Love & Co. would also need a Vikings loss to Detroit in Week 18 and, ideally, for the 49ers to upset the Lions this week.
Technically, this last step isn’t necessary, but with a win the Lions will lock up the division and have nothing to play for in their last game against Minnesota.
3.5-point home dogs, San Francisco has a 39.1% chance of victory according to ESPN analytics. Combining implied moneyline odds from both sides gives them a 36.5% hit rate (odds as offered at ESPN Bet, subject to change). Faced with a coin-flip game themselves, the Packers need things to go their way both this week and next to secure a more favorable playoff matchup versus the winner of the NFC’s weakest division–either Tampa Bay or Atlanta (both currently sit at 8-7).
The Packers Would Rather Avoid a Week 1 Rematch with the Eagles
Scenario #2 (most likely): Win or lose in Week 17, the Packers will most likely finish where they are now, 6th, and play the Rams in January. Oddly enough, their 24-19 regular season win over the Rams is what gives them the tiebreaker advantage (Minnesota lost this common game to finish 7-1 in the category). Since starting 1-4, Los Angeles has gone 8-2 and is an 81.1% favorite to win the division.
Going to SoFi Stadium to play Matt Stafford and Sean McVay in the playoffs would not be a comfortable feeling. The Packers’ Week 5 victory came against an injured Rams team still missing top wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Green Bay is also a stronger, battle-tested version of its early-season self. The first round clash would be a good one.
What the Packers really need to avoid is falling to the 7th seed. A loss would leave a path for the Commanders to pass them with wins over Atlanta and Dallas. At 12-5, Washington would own the tiebreaker for out-of-division teams by going 9-3 in conference games to best the Packers by a game. Sunday night’s duel of rookie quarterbacks, featuring Commanders ROY candidate Jayden Daniels and Falcons newly minted starter Michael Penix, will be Washington’s main hurdle.
Division games are never guaranteed, but whether the eliminated Cowboys will be fired up to take the field one more time is questionable. In what could be seen as a white-flag gesture, star receiver CeeDee Lamb has been shut down in order to rehab a shoulder injury.
If the Packers lose and Washington takes care of business, it won’t matter what Green Bay does against the Bears next week. They will be stuck with the 7-seed. If the Eagles overtake Detroit for the 1-seed, an improbable but possible outcome, the Packers will open the playoffs against Minnesota after losing both regular season face-offs. Otherwise, they will fly to Philadelphia.
There would, though, be a silver lining to that matchup. After sustaining a concussion last week, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has been ruled out against Dallas. No one wants an injury to impact games, but if he struggled to regain his rhythm after clearing protocol, a playoff game in Philadelphia would not be as daunting.
It would be preferable, of course, to shut the door on uncertainty. Scenario #1 is still in play. Keeping it alive starts with exacting revenge two days from now in Minnesota.
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