Now that the initial wave of free agency activity has receded, sportsbooks have posted early win total lines for next season. The Milwaukee Bucks have been pegged anywhere from 43.5 to 45.5 wins. Falling short of the higher figure would give them their worst record at least since 2018 (44-38). Battling a rocky start and nearly constant ailments, they still managed to win 48 games in 2025. Now, though, Giannis Antetokounmpo has no true no. 2 option – no Damian Lillard, no Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton. It’s a different looking team, but the Eastern Conference is wide open. Where will the Bucks fall in the standings?
Middle Tier of Eastern Conference Is Up for Grabs
DraftKings, more favorable to the Bucks than others, has them tied for fifth in the East alongside Detroit. Cleveland tops the conference at 55.5, followed by New York at 52.5, Orlando at 51.5, and Atlanta at 46.5, one win ahead of Milwaukee. Just from that, one can argue that the four-seed is perfectly gettable.
The Achilles injuries to Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton are a big reason, perhaps the biggest, for the fluidity in the East. The books have dinged both Boston and Indiana in their projections (Draftkings has them at 43.5 and 39.5, respectively) and justly so. Each team has lost its best player for the season.
The Hawks had a fantastic offseason, adding Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. With Jalen Johnson healthy, that starting lineup just got a whole lot scarier.
Still, Atlanta has looked quite good on paper before, without the record or playoff success to show for it. The Hawks haven’t won more than 43 games since 2016. In year one of this new-look roster, they might take some time to gel.
The Magic present a different but similar case. Before injuries sent them stumbling to a .500 finish, they occupied a top seed for much of the first half. They won 47 games the season prior. Trading for Desmond Bane gives the Magic the smooth-shooting scorer they needed and a bona fide big three: Bane, Paolo Banchero, and Franz Wagner. Bane’s efficient 19.2 points per game was the trio’s lowest scoring average last season.
On paper, Orlando should definitely be one of the three best teams in the East, but like Atlanta, the Magic have significantly altered the fabric of the team. Even granted better health, an 11-win jump might be too much to ask.
Milwaukee Bucks Have Sure Thing Their Rivals Don’t
Of course, the Bucks’ roster has also undergone major change since the first batch of 2025-26 power rankings. Like the above two teams, they might encounter problems cohering the elements of a new system. They have a lower ceiling than the Magic. As far as win totals go, however, variance and uncertainty plays into Milwaukee’s favor as a dark horse to jump at least one of Atlanta or Orlando in the standings.
The success of the 76ers, whose win total sits at 43.5, is almost wholly predicated on the health of Joel Embiid. In recent years, that hasn’t been a recipe for success. Philadelphia is a major wild card, but until Embiid proves that he can stay on the court, it isn’t realistic to be too high on them.
The Miami Heat made some buzz by trading three magic beans for Norman Powell, but they lack both a superstar and clear roster vision and seem stuck in play-in purgatory.
Who knows what the Raptors will look like. They seem to have good players every year and still play losing basketball.
As for the Pistons, they look poised for another step forward coming off a 44-win campaign. Having secured his first All-NBA nod last season, Cade Cunningham should only continue his superstar trajectory. How big a leap they make, with the pressure of improving and the focus of opponents upon them, is up for debate. Is it enough to leapfrog the Bucks?
In the swamp of uncertainty, Milwaukee has something other teams don’t: Giannis is still the best player in the conference. Endowed with a top-three player in his prime, it’s very rare for an NBA team to be uncompetitive. If the Greek Freak stays healthy, playing in the upper region of his 63-73 game range of the past four seasons, the Bucks have a solid floor and a decent ceiling. Without Lillard, they may struggle to find answers in the games Giannis misses, but if things go right, they could match last season’s record without too much trouble.
Right now, the Cavs and Knicks look like the only sure things in the East. The Magic are strong contenders for a top three spot. After that, anarchy reigns. Led by at worst the NBA’s third-best player, there’s no reason the Bucks can’t fend off the Hawks, Pistons or 76ers, or the injured Celtics and Pacers. A four-seed finish and home playoff series is firmly within the realm of possibility.
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