Milwaukee Bucks superman Giannis Antetokounmpo has made a few headlines in recent weeks. First he led his team to the second annual NBA Cup Championship with a 26 PT, 19 REB, 10 AST performance. Then he broke Shaq’s record for most games scoring 20-plus on 50% shooting–26 contests and counting. Thursday revealed the first round of All-Star fan voting with, guess who, Giannis leading all players for a second consecutive year, at 1,710,630 votes.
Despite all this, his MVP odds are up to +1200 at some places. Is now the time to fire off a bid for the twice-crowned champ?
At a market consensus of -115 and +122, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are the clear-cut favorites–make no mistake about it. Giannis trails the competition in holistic metrics like plus-minus, net rating, and player impact rating (PIE), and the Bucks sit just two games above .500 (17-15).
While all of this is true, traditional stats still heavily influence voting, and in that area, Giannis’ has a strong profile: his 32.4 PPG (1st), 11.7 RPG (7th) and 6.0 APG (29th) offer the best challenge to Joker’s 31.0, 13.2 and 9.7. The Bucks big man has a legitimate case. For MVP bettors, is +1200 too much to pass up?
How Advanced Stats Hurt Giannis’ Case–And Why They Underestimate His Value
The best argument for giving Thanasis’ big brother a third trophy lies in what might seem to be his greatest weakness versus the field. It relies on the fact that 1) the Bucks aren’t as good as other stars’ teams and 2) that Giannis’ advanced stats are not as impressive because his team relies on him so heavily. To be halfway decent, they need to live and breathe through Giannis. While the same could be said for almost every superstar’s squad, it is especially true of Milwaukee.
Naturally, team-centric metrics for individual performance like plus-minus and net rating will be better when good players play for good teams.
Take the plus-minus figures for the six main MVP candidates according to betting odds:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 12.2
- Jason Tatum 9.3
- Nikola Jokic 9.2
- Karl Anthony-Towns 7.1
- Victor Wembanyama 4.6
- Giannis Antetokounmpo 1.3.
Now consider the win-loss records of each player’s team:
- SGA, Thunder 29-5
- Tatum, Celtics 26-9
- KAT, Knicks 24-11
- Joker, Nuggets 19-14
- Giannis, Bucks 17-15
- Wemby, Spurs 18-16.
In the MVP conversation, win-loss record inevitably exerts sizable sway on voters. Yes, team performance is due in great part to the performance of its best players; yes, great players elevate the roster around them. And, yes, “team” stat or not, Shai leads OKC’s second best player, Jalen Williams, by 5-6 points in both plus-minus and net rating. An NBA cheat code, he is simply having an incredible season by both advanced and traditional measures.
But consider: While Derrick white and Jason Tatum share very similar numbers in the above categories, but there is little doubt about who belongs in the MVP race.
Bottom line, it is important to understand how certain statistics incorporate an entire roster’s performance. It would be ridiculously superficial to take one look at plus-minus figures and dismiss Giannis from consideration.
Giannis benefits from PIE vs Net Rating and Plus-Minus
Net rating tells a similarly exaggerated story:
- SGA 17.0
- Tatum 12.3
- Jokic 11.0
- KAT 9.9
- Wemby 6.0
- Giannis 2.7.
But let’s now examine PIE, another metric that attempts to capture player value relative to collective data. Player impact rating represents the ratio of individual contributions to everything that happened during a player’s time on the floor. (Formula here.) A significant distinction from plus-minus and net rating is that it specifically incorporates individual statistics, not just what happened while the individual was involved.
Essentially, PIE measures how much “stuff” a player accounts for. This allows it to better isolate superstar-level impact and workload from team ability.
Here is how MVP contenders match up:
- Giannis 21.3
- Jokic 20.7
- SGA 20.3
- Wemby 18.1
- KAT 17.6
- Tatum 16.9.
When you think about it, the change in rankings make sense. The Bucks have only one other All-Star level player in Damian Lillard. On both ends of the court, Giannis assumes the lion’s share of responsibility. Jokic is in much the same shoes in Denver. San Antonio runs through Wemby. Meanwhile, the Knicks and Celtics are two stellar teams with multiple options.
A look at usage rates vindicates this narrative. At 36.0%, Giannis is far and away the most heavily utilized of the group, with Tatum (29.9%) and KAT (26.2%) consuming the lowest number of possessions. Wemby and Joker register usage rates of 31.8% and 30.0%. Shai is second on the list at 32.5%.
And that’s the thing, isn’t it? Within the above observations, what once again stands out like a sore thumb–or a blazing beacon–is Shai. The Thunder point guard checks both boxes. He is the best player on a really good team, and he handles a huge amount of responsibility. He is the odds-on MVP favorite for a reason. At 31.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 6.1 APG his traditional numbers are aesthetically pleasing. His lockdown defense means that Giannis backers cannot point to that area as an advantage over Shai.
On the offensive end of the floor, Giannis could help his efficiency rating by shooting better on threes (22.2% on less than an attempt per game) and free throws (60.3%, 11.3 attempts). As it is, his effective field goal and true shooting percentages do not stand out from the others’ despite his raw success (60.6% from the field).
Two-Time Winner Is Worth Considering As a Relative Longshot
What’s relevant to bettors, though, isn’t whether SGA, Jokic, or Giannis will win. It’s about playing the price relative to probability. At this point in the season, the two frontrunners have unappealingly short odds. While justly favored, it doesn’t make sense to me that a Shai or Joker MVP is nearly 12 times as likely as a third for the Greek Freak.
For example, no one wants players hurt, but injuries happen. Historically, Giannis is a better candidate for that than the other two, but his odds are also way longer, meaning he doesn’t have to win all that often to make it a profitable play. At odds of +1200, the break-even point dips to 7.69%.
Currently, he has a strong hold on that number three spot in the pecking order, with Tatum next up a consensus +2200. In terms of record, the only really uphill battle he has is against SGA and OKC. To be blunt: he doesn’t have a chance of catching him in that department.
But what if the Bucks find enough of themselves, which is how they seemed to be trending when they won the Cup, to finish with 48 wins and fourth in the Eastern Conference standings? When Jokic won his second MVP in 2022, the Nuggets went 48-34 and ended up sixth in the Western Conference. Maybe–just maybe–Giannis has a worthwhile shot.
Breaking Down Giannis’ Odds in the MVP Market as a Whole
At his consensus price of +1100, Giannis’ implied odds of winning the award are 8.33%. Implied odds are not the same thing as actual probability, due to the “vig” charged by sportsbooks. Instead, it is the frequency at which an event must occur for a wager to break even.
In this case, the question is whether Giannis stands a better chance to win than the 10 to 1 odds he’s being priced at.
For context, comparing our man’s odds to the total implied probability of every candidate in the general market, as listed on the Action Network’s odds tracker, gives him a market share of just 6.87%.( If we assumed every price were accurate, this would be his actual chance of winning.) Although this is not a measure of the odds needed to turn a profit (still 8.33% at +1100), it is a useful tool of comparison. Does he really merit such a modest piece of the pie?
By contrast, Jokic has implied odds of 45.05% (37.13% market share). Shai lists at 53.49%, a 44.09% share.
There may be significant variation in price between books, but the consensus figures help gauge what the market thinks about each player, and whether skewed public opinion provides a betting opportunity.
One Scenario Where a Giannis MVP Ticket Ages Extremely Well
Here’s how it happens. SGA and the Thunder cruise to the one-seed. Because they don’t have much to play for down the stretch, Shai isn’t required to put up 40 points every other night and his numbers take a dip. In the second half of the season, Jalen Williams continues to grow, as does their already potent two-man game, and production becomes just a bit more balanced.
The Nuggets, who have shown weakness this season and anyway don’t care that much about the regular season, continue at their current 47-win pace and finish with 45-50. Joker’s eye-candy stats, especially his PPG as he looks to score less often to conserve energy and get everyone in rhythm for the playoffs, deflate a little.
Meanwhile, Giannis hoists his team on his back like the hulk to secure the fourth, or even the fifth seed to avoid ending up sixth and playing one of the big three in the top-heavy Eastern Conference in the first round. His counting stats are on steroids. Think 33, 12, and 6 shooting over 60%. (A minimal uptick from where they are now, but the others’ have decreased.) His explosive style only fuels the narrative. Milwaukee will probably lose in the second round, but hey, it’s is a regular season award.
Is that scenario, or a similar one, likely to parlay itself into existence? Probably not. Does it have greater than an 8% chance of happening? Tough to say for certain, but it feels like the answer is yes. It’s hard to predict exactly how the season will play out. That works to the advantage of longer odds, like his.
Typically, futures markets are so juiced by the books that it can be hard wade through all the muck to find a decent play. With the options currently on the board for MVP, I would venture a May podium speech from Giannis is getting a better price than any other nominee.
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