The Milwaukee Bucks (17-14) enter Wednesday night’s matchup with the Brooklyn Nets (12-21) as 12.5 to 13-point favorites as of this afternoon. According to the injury report, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are listed as probable for the Bucks. AJ Green remains questionable.
For Brooklyn, Cam Thomas has been cleared to play after sitting out last game due to injury management. Forward Ziaire Williams has also dropped his questionable tag, while Ben Simmons has been ruled out. Noah Clowney (6’9”) may or may not take the court. If he doesn’t, Brooklyn will have only Williams (6’9″), center Nic Claxton (6’11”), forward Cam Johnson (6’8”) and backup center Dayron Sharpe to counter Milwaukee’s treetop trio of Giannis, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis.
At 221.5, the total is up two points from earlier today, following Brooklyn’s updated injury report.
The game will be a back-to-back for Brooklyn, who fell 130-113 last night in Toronto, and their 5th contest in 8 games. The Bucks last played New Year’s Eve versus Indiana, a 120-112 comeback victory.
With those preliminaries out of the way, let’s get into a betting preview for tonight’s game.
Which Side Is the Right One?
While the Bucks have certainly been playing better since their 1-6 start, they remain 14-17-1 against the spread (includes the NBA Cup championship, which doesn’t count as a regular season game). At home, their ATS record is just 6-9-1.
The Nets, meanwhile, are 18-14-1 ATS and 12-6-1 on the road. The Bucks have won by 13 or more seven times this season. The Nets have lost by the same number 10 times.
Tonight’s 8 p.m. tipoff is the season series finale between the two teams, staged at Milwaukee’s Fiserv Arena. So far, the Bucks have not covered a spread. Previously, they have been road favorites of 8.5 (lost 115-102) and 6.5 (won 118-113). At home last time out, again favored by 6.5 points, they lost outright, 111-105. For context, that was without either Antetokounmpo or Damian Lillard. Thomas did not play for Brooklyn.
This game will also be in Milwaukee, and extrapolating from the last line makes the most sense. Essentially, add Giannis and Lillard while adjusting for Brooklyn’s lineup changes. Thomas will be in, Simmons out, and the Nets will also be playing new trade acquisition D’Angelo Russell.
Also of import is the fact that the Nets will be playing a back-to-back, pushing the line up. One thing to note here is that Thomas did not play last night, and should have fresher legs than his teammates. In 18 games played, he leads Brooklyn in scoring at 24.7 PPG.
Final lineups will be officially announced 30 minutes before tipoff. In particular, status confirmations on Middleton and Antetokounmpo will be something to monitor.
Putting It All Together: Final Verdict on the Side
Accounting for all of the above, the line is a 6-6.5 point increase from their last matchup. Assuming the Bucks have a clean injury report, the margin could tick up. The current line seems like a reasonable adjustment for the personnel changes and Brooklyn’s travel.
Contrary to the pair of Nets-Bucks games in which Giannis played, it is also worth noting that Nets no longer have forward Dorian-Finney Smith. While he did not guard Giannis directly, his physicality helped counter Milwaukee’s size. Having the 6’10” Simmons sidelined only makes matters worse for the visitors. Even Claxton is small for a center at 6’11”, 215 lbs.
Obviously, this is a favorable matchup for Milwaukee, going up against a bad team with no answer for the trees in green.
Given how tough the Nets have played them, however, laying 13 points is not a comfortable feeling. On the other hand, the game could devolve into a blowout simply because head coach Jodi Fernandez cannot contain Buck bigs.
Make of the information what you will, the side or total does not seem skewed either way.
Milwaukee Bucks Forward Has Been Productive Vs Nets
There is, though, a prop pick that jumps out: Bobby Portis over 12.5 points (-105 at Bet MGM). On the season he is averaging 14.1 PPG on 47.2% shooting. He has exceeded 12 points total in every game against Brooklyn, and in 17 of 31 games this season.
He has also done so in five straight games–the caveat being Giannis’ four absences and Lillard’s three. When Giannis plays, Portis has only gone over tonight’s line in 11 of 24 chances. However, Oddstrader projects a 60% hit rate for Wednesday’s game.
The matchup against Brooklyn is a good one for Portis. Throwing out his last performance, 18 points on 16 shots in the absence of Dame and Giannis, he has burned the Nets for 23 (9-10) and 14 (7-14).
Moreover, with Claxton and Sharpe on Giannis or Lopez, he will likely be guarded by Clowney or Williams in addition to the tougher, but smaller Johnson. Efficiently mixing inside and outside shooting, he should dominate his matchup.
In the event of a blowout, Portis may take the bench early, which could be problematic. As long as he gets up enough shots, though, he won’t have to go nine of 10 again to hit the over. I like his chances.
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