THE MATCHUP
New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers (-7/-7.5, 45.5) – odds current as of writing
Time & Place: 12:00 PM CST, Lambeau Field
TV: Fox
The 3-2 New York Jets travel to Lambeau Field Sunday to take on the 3-2 Green Bay Packers in a surprisingly intriguing matchup. Let’s see if we can find a winning bet on the board for Sunday’s tilt.
Jets & Packers Current Form
The Jets enter week 6 on a two game winning streak. The Jets dismantled the Miami Dolphins in week 4 by the score of 40-17, although the game was closer before the Jets rattled off 21 unanswered points in the 4th quarter. Zach Wilson is 2-0 as starting quarterback since returning from injury in week 4, and the young Jets offense has looked frisky at times. The Packers, meanwhile, enter week 6 off a disappointing loss across the pond to the New York Giants. Green Bay led 20-10 at halftime, but got away from the things that got them the lead and ultimately coughed one up late. The offense did next to nothing in the second half and the defense could not get off the field, allowing the Giants to methodically march down the field all half.
Point Spread
The market is currently bouncing between the Packers being favored by 7 and 7.5. 7 is a very key number in football betting, right behind 3 for the most likely outcome. At 7.5, I definitely lean to the Jets, as it’s hard to trust the Packers to put two complete halves together right now. Zach Wilson has also shined in the 4th quarter this year, leading 5 touchdown drives in 6 fourth quarter possessions. This stat combined with the Packers inconsistent play suggests a backdoor cover for the Jets is in play if the Packers build an early lead. The Packers have not kept their foot on the gas when they’ve had leads early, as recently evidenced by last week’s second half meltdown in London. However, the one thing giving me pause about being more confident in the Jets +7.5 is Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur’s brilliant record off a loss since 2019:
In the regular season under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 9-0 SU and ATS following a loss with 8 of the wins coming by double-digits.
Aaron Rodgers has 24 TDs and 0 INTs in these games.
Good buy-low/sell-high spot vs the Jets at -7 on Sunday?
— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) October 11, 2022
The Pick: Lean Jets @ +7.5 (pass @ 7)
Total
The O/U for this game sits at 45.5 currently. It was bet down from 46 to 45 early in the week, and has now ticked up a notch to 45.5. The Jets are 3-2 to the over on the year, including 2-0 to the over since Zach Wilson’s return. The Packers are 3-2 to the under, but their last two games have sailed over the total.
Green Bay’s defense has looked bad the last two weeks, getting gashed on the ground and giving up a lot in the middle of the field in the passing game. Green Bay currently ranks 28th in Football Outsider’s Rush Defense DVOA. The biggest weakness in Green Bay’s pass defense has been over the middle on crossing routes:
The Packers have given up the 2nd-fewest passing yards in the NFL through 5 weeks (885)
Yet somehow they've allowed the most yards of any defense on crossing routes by FAR in 2022 (327)
— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) October 10, 2022
I expect the Jets to attack the middle of the field, rather than challenge the Packers on the outside. Also, their running game should be effective enough to set up some play-action deep shots. The potential absence/limitation of Rashan Gary should help the Jets passing game as well:
Rashan Gary was limited participation and is questionable for Sunday.
Here's the #Packers vs. Jets injury report.https://t.co/B5QAEbIVEK— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) October 14, 2022
On the flipside, Green Bay will be looking for a bounce-back performance after not scoring in the second half last week, other than an intentional safety taken by the Giants late in the game. I mentioned the 9-0 record after a loss for Rodgers/LaFleur, so I expect a fast start on offense. If the Jets are in comeback mode, Wilson’s strong 4th quarter play should be enough to put this game over the total.
London Trend?
Finally, a potential trend to monitor was defenses looking sluggish after returning from London. Minnesota gave up 22 points to a bad Chicago offense, and New Orleans gave up 32 at home to Seattle. It’s hard to know if this is a real thing, but those defenses definitely did not play well last week. We will see how the Packers and Giants fare on Sunday.
The Pick: BET Over 45.5
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