For a long time, the basketball goal in Milwaukee was winning a second NBA championship. Of course, if we’re being completely honest, the goal wasn’t always that lofty. A more accurate dream for the late ’70s and ’80s was making it back to the Finals. Most would have been happy with just having a decent enough postseason showing; that is, if the Bucks managed to make the playoffs at all during most of the 25 years that followed the 1992 season and the end of a 12-year streak of consecutive playoff appearances. But regardless of the state of the team, that sole championship way back in 1971 loomed in the background.
It loomed especially large as the Bucks began to build another contending team around Giannis. After a few near misses, a playoff flameout or two, and a chorus of national media voices predicting an impending free agency departure, the Wisconsin Sports Curse talk around Giannis and Co. was running rampant. It’s no surprise, then, that last summer’s run was so cathartic. Giannis stayed, and his team broke the 50 year-long championship drought that had been sparked by another all-time talent leaving for brighter lights. The implications were many, but one clear result: a shift in the goal. For the first time in a very long time, the Bucks aren’t looking to break a drought. They’re trying to win another title before a new drought can even start.
Now that we’ve reached the All-Star break, it’s time to start thinking about how much of a chance the Bucks have at repeating. That starts with a team-by-team look at their path back to the Finals through the Eastern Conference, which I’ve broken into tiers.
The Bottom
14. Orlando Magic (13-47)
The Bucks are 4-0 against the Magic this season, but it doesn’t really matter. Orlando’s elimination number is already down to eight, which means that the 10-seed Hawks could win just eight more games this year and still finish ahead of a Magic team that never loses another game. It’s safe to say Milwaukee has an advantage here.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 10/10
A quick note on the confidence levels that isn’t relevant here, but might be later – I’m an optimist. Sue me.
13. Detroit Pistons (13-45)
The Pistons have played nine games in February. They lost eight of those games by at least nine points. This is a bad basketball team. They’ve lost twenty-nine games by double digits, which is more than twice the amount of games they’ve won. It’s also more double digits losses than fifteen NBA teams have total losses. They did manage to beat the Bucks once, but they also lost to Milwaukee by 20+ twice. One game between the two remains, but any chance of the Pistons being better than the Bucks this year is long gone.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 10/10
12. Indiana Pacers (20-40)
The Pacers are 6-18 in 2022. They’re 12-28 over their last 40 games. That’s not ideal. In their defense, that’s a better pace than the Pistons and Magic are on over the full season. When it comes to comparing teams to title contenders, though, being better than Detroit and Orlando won’t get you very far. Indiana has lost eight in a row against Milwaukee, and they’ve won just one of their last 13 matchups with the Bucks. Even if they were to pull off a miracle and finish the season on a 20-2 run to give themselves a play-in shot, there’s no reason to believe they pose much of a threat here.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 10/10
Looking Up at the Play-in
11. New York Knicks (25-34)
The Knicks aren’t very good. They can’t really score, ranking 25th in the league in offensive rating. They don’t really defend either, ranking a mediocre 16th in defensive rating. They’re around the 20th best team in the league by most metrics, which puts them just ahead of the Wizards and above most of the teams fighting for the West’s 10 seed. However, that won’t do them any good when it comes to making the East play-in, and they’ve fallen 3.5 games back of the Hawks after losing 13 of 16 heading into the break. The Bucks are 3-1 against New York with three double digit wins. It’s hard to see a potential playoff series between the two being much of a contest.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 10/10
10. Washington Wizards (27-31)
Bradley Beal is out for the year, and that probably won’t have much effect on the Wizards, who are 9-8 without him and playing 0.6 points better per 100 possessions with him on the bench versus on the court. Like the Knicks, the Wizards don’t have a whole lot to hang their hat on. They’re 22nd in both offensive and defensive rating, which speaks to some sort of consistency and an absence of any sort of quality. Washington has gone just 17-28 over their last forty-five games. That doesn’t bode well for their play-in chances, and their 1-9 record in their last ten games against the Bucks doesn’t make me want to give them much of a shot if they do end up in a series against Milwaukee.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 10/10
Will Likely Make a Quick Trip to the Playoffs
9. Atlanta Hawks (28-30)
The Hawks have a fantastic offense that ranks second in the league and a terrible defense that ranks second-to-last in the league. Last year’s Atlanta team was extreme with a top ten O and a bottom ten D, but they’ve gone even beyond that this year. The result has been an incredibly inconsistent season with two seven-game win streaks and losing streaks of six and five games. In a weird swing of fate, both of those winning streaks began with wins over the Bucks, making the Hawks 2-0 against Milwaukee this season.
This is not a team that should be easily dismissed. Trae Young is one of the better offensive players in the league, ranking in the top seven in PER, offensive win shares, and offensive BPM. As he showed in Game One of last year’s ECF, he’s capable of tilting a playoff game with his own hands. The Hawks have a relatively deep group of players around him capable of providing a scoring punch, too. But they ultimately never had the answers to stop a more talented Bucks’ offense last summer in a series that saw each team’s star limited by injury. It’s hard to see how they’ve done anything but become even more unbalanced and likely slightly worse since then. Milwaukee would be pretty confident heading into another series with the Hawks.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 9.5/10
8. Charlotte Hornets (29-31)
For most of the season, the Hornets were essentially the Hawks with a slightly different name and a little more scoring balance at the top of their rotation in place of a true lead scorer like Young. They had an elite offense, a bottom-of-the-league defense, and five players capable of scoring 15-20 points per game in LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridges, Terry Rozier, and Kelly Oubre. They were going to make it tough for you to guard them and would have trouble guarding you on the other end.
Over the past few weeks, that’s changed. In their last fifteen games, Charlotte ranks 26th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating. Despite that trend they’ve also added another volume scorer in Montrezl Harrell through deadline trade. The switch hasn’t worked particularly well for the Hornets; they’re just 4-11 in those games and have fallen well behind the East’s top six. While the defensive improvements are an obvious positive, it won’t do them any good if they can’t score anymore. This is a team that has yet to show any sort of consistent ability to play well on both sides of the court at the same time, and that won’t get it done this summer. Charlotte is 2-1 against the Bucks this year and was a tough opponent last year too, but it’d be hard to see them winning a playoff series.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 9.5/10
Dangerous Teams
7. Brooklyn Nets (31-28)
The Nets entered the season with absurd amounts of offensive potential and a questionable defense. It just wasn’t clear where those two units would fall after a disappointing, injury-filled first season with their star trio of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving. Sixty games later, we have as many questions as ever. From the Irving vaccine fiasco to the Joe Harris injury to a string of Durant injuries to the Harden trade request prompted by the Irving vaccine fiasco to the addition of Ben Simmons and Seth Curry in a trade prompted by the Harden trade request prompted by the Irving vaccine fiasco to the recent eleven-game losing streak… it’s been a crazy season in Brooklyn.
The Nets have quite a bit of work to do to be a postseason threat, never mind win a title. Simmons will need to be worked back up to speed and into the rotation. Durant will need to get and stay healthy. Irving will need to be incorporated back in as a regular when the NYC vaccine mandate is (as is seemingly likely) taken off the books. The team metrics should be taken with a grain of salt given all the chaos and absences, but Brooklyn is 17th in net rating. That’s nowhere near where you need to be to contend in the postseason.
And yet, they have Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and now Ben Simmons. Simmons is an easy target for criticism, but he could end up being one heck of a fit as a lockdown defender and elite playmaker alongside some combination of KD, Kyrie, Curry, Harris, and Patty Mills. His ability to put ball in basket is an issue, but the man can do (and do very well) just about everything else. I’m not counting the Nets out quite yet.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 9/10
6. Toronto Raptors (32-25)
The Raptors are a tough, well-balanced team that won’t make life easy. The Bucks are well aware of that after losing all three regular season games against them this season. We also have some past history with the Raps that drives home the same point, but I’m struggling to remember what exactly happened there.
In any case, Toronto has two legit studs in Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam. VanVleet has turned himself into an offensive machine capable of getting his own look, knocking down tons of threes, and setting up others. He ranks 14th in the league in offensive BPM, ahead of the likes of DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, James Harden, Jayson Tatum, and Chris Paul. Siakam, meanwhile, is capable of doing just about everything and is a strong bucket getter within the arc. Throw in a rock solid two-way wing in OG Anunoby, a very good shooter and decent all-around scorer in Gary Trent Jr, and a really promising rookie in Scottie Barnes, and you have quite the five-man lineup. Depth is an issue, though, and I ultimately just don’t see Toronto having the talent to knock off the Bucks in a playoff series. But that doesn’t mean they’ll go down easy.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
5. Boston Celtics (34-26)
The Celtics have been firing on all cylinders recently. In February, they’re 7-1 with the top net rating in the league and a defense that’s allowed a full eight points less per 100 possessions than the second-place Jazz. Over their last fifteen games, they’re 11-4 with the top net rating in the league and a defense that’s allowed a full eight points less per 100 possessions than the second-place Heat. They’ve been rolling defensively, and smaller signs of offensive progress might be a more sustainable approach to continued improved play through the end of the season.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are a really good wing duo that is going to put up points, and Derrick White was a very nice deadline addition that might help diversify some things for Boston offensively. With Ime Udoka’s defensive system seemingly reaching its apex, this could be a dangerous team. They’ve won four of six against the Bucks over the last two seasons, too. That said, I’m still not sold on the playmaking abilities of Tatum and Brown, who are essentially rolling with the exact same assist percentages as last year, and I’m not sure who else steps up consistently when needed during the playoffs. The level of defensive dominance that has sparked this recent run simply isn’t sustainable either, which will lead to more pressure on that offense. I’m not sure it can handle it. There’s a reason the Celtics were 23-22 a month ago.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 9/10
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (35-23)
The Cavs have been an awesome story all year, with everything – from player development to drafting to roster moves to a Kevin Love resurgence – working out for them. Darius Garland’s three-year progress has been phenomenal, and he’s become a significant positive offensively. With Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio out, he’s fundamental to everything Cleveland does on that side of the ball, and he’s delivered all year. Evan Mobley has been fantastic as a rookie, and he and Jarrett Allen make for a dominant defensive duo. The Cavs go as their defense does, and that starts and ends with those two. Then there’s Love, who’s been the best bench player in the league. He’s tenth in offensive BPM, sandwiched between Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler. Lauri Markkanen and Isaac Okoro have been solid on the wing too, and the addition of Caris LeVert should add some ball handling versatility offensively.
There’s no question that this is a very good basketball team. You simply can’t doubt it anymore. We’re 58 games in, and preseason expectations are largely irrelevant at this point. The more relevant question is whether they can make it work under the bright lights, and the nearly universal playoff inexperience outside of Love and lack of strong ball handlers might give Cleveland more questions than they can answer this summer. The Cavs are 2-1 against the Bucks and are probably about as well set up to limit Giannis as a team outside of Miami realistically can be. He’s averaging less assists against them (2.5) than he is against any other team this season. Still, I’m not convinced they can handle Middleton and Holiday defensively or deal with Holiday following Garland on the other end.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 7.5/10
3. Philadelphia 76ers (35-23)
The Sixers, like the Nets, are going to be hard to get a read on before we play the next 20-25 games. What does adding James Harden at the cost of Seth Curry, Andre Drummond, and a defunct Ben Simmons do to a team? One clear truth is Joel Embiid’s status as a force to be reckoned with. He’s been superb this year, and he’ll be a staple of the MVP conversation down the stretch. You’re not adding Harden to a roster that just has Embiid either. Despite reasonable contract gripes, Tobias Harris providing 19/7/4 and playing 35 solid two-way minutes a night shouldn’t be overlooked. Tyrese Maxey has been very exciting, Matisse Thybulle is a good defensive specialist, and Danny Green, Furkan Korkmaz, and Georges Niang provide options on the wing.
There are questions to be asked though. The Sixers have overachieved so far, beating their expected record by three games. They’re 13th in net rating. Losing Curry and his off-ball shooting isn’t insignificant, especially given that Philly’s star is a big that thrives in the paint. The minutes-to-minutes transition between Curry and Harden is obvious, and Harden will bring playmaking and individual scoring that Curry simply doesn’t have in his arsenal. But he hasn’t been a spot-up shooter to any significant degree in more than half a decade. What does that mean for spacing for Embiid and guys like Maxey and Thybulle? The loss of Drummond isn’t a throwaway either; the Sixers were relatively neutral in his minutes this year, a rather sizable improvement from their past disasters when Embiid sat. Maybe that would have collapsed in the playoffs, but it’s another variable to address.
Embiid is awesome, and Harden – assuming he does actually have more in the tank – is an absolute unit offensively. But neither has ever made it happen in the playoffs, which counts for something, and this is not a plug-and-chug scenario. More work will be necessary. We’ll see how the next few months unfold, but for now, I’m not particularly worried about the Sixers, who have not had much recent luck against the Bucks.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 8/10
2. Chicago Bulls (38-21)
The Bulls managed to turn an ill-conceived trade for Nikola Vucevic into the predecessor for a summer of home run additions that will have them headed back to the playoffs. DeMar DeRozan is a First Team All-NBA candidate and has been an absolute monster offensively. Zach LaVine has been quite good as a second weapon too. Vucevic is starting to turn it on a bit and offers a good deal of playmaking and shooting from the five spot when he’s right. The issue for Chicago has been defense, which has been very difficult with Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso in and out of the lineup. The Bulls allow 6.2 points less per 100 possessions when Ball plays, and that number balloons to 12 points per 100 when Caruso is on the court.
It’s obviously rather important to have them out there, and it’s hard to tell what exactly the Bulls have here without seeing them play consistently. If they can come back healthy and help re-establish some balance (Chicago is currently third in offensive rating and 20th defensively), then we might have something to talk about here. But if the defense continues to lag behind, it’s going to be even harder for this team to break through in year one. As things stand, I’m not sure how the Bulls beat the Bucks when the stars shine in the playoffs. I’m not sure that changes regardless of the status of Caruso and Ball, but that would at least give the Bulls the full complement of their options. Milwaukee plays Chicago three more times before the season is over; those should be some interesting and telling games.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 8/10
1. Miami Heat (38-21)
And here we are. The Heat went in on their current roster by adding Kyle Lowry and PJ Tucker, and it’s certainly paid off. Even if this team doesn’t go the distance, they can reasonably believe in themselves at the All-Star break despite a run of injuries up and down the rotation throughout the first sixty games. After last year, that’s a win.
Jimmy Butler continues to be a two-way beast. Lowry has struggled with his shot at times but has otherwise done what he was brought in to do with a strong all-around impact. Bam Adebayo has been quite good defensively when healthy, though his efficiency and playmaking numbers are down on the other end. That might have something to do with the injection of a floor general like Lowry into the system. Tyler Herro’s “leap” has really just been an increase in shot volume, but he’s still scoring at a good volume on decent enough efficiency. That’s an undeniably good thing. PJ Tucker decided to start making threes again and has been very good defensively. Duncan Robinson is still providing spacing despite a downturn in three-point efficiency. Even guys like Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Omer Yurtseven have been stepping up.
This is a good, deep team. They limit Giannis as well as anyone, a trend that has continued into this season. He’s yet to top 15 points in two appearances against them. They have shooters and good offensive players. Lowry might be the release valve they were missing in last year’s series. But the Bucks have the best player on the floor in Giannis, the third-best player on the floor in Khris, and (probably) the fourth-best player in Jrue. They are simply better at the top, and they’ve learned what it takes to win this type of series.
With all that being said, the Milwaukee Bucks are in good position to rule the East yet again.
Would the Bucks win in a 7-game series?: Yes
Confidence Level: 7/10
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