Ahead of the Green Bay Packers’ Week 18 game against the Bears, coach Matt LaFleur announced that starters will take the field on Sunday.
“The right answer,” he said, “is whatever works. If it goes great, that was the right way to do it, and if it doesn’t go the way you want to, you know, you learn from every experience.”
To explain his decision, he referenced the Packers’ approach in the final week of the 2021-22 season. Having clinched the NFC one-seed, they played starters for a half and sat them for the second. After their bye in the playoffs, they lost to San Francisco in the Divisional Round.
The implication from LaFleur: that did not work.
Moreover, the Packers have playoff seeding at stake. Right now, they occupy the seventh and final postseason slot. But if Washington loses to the Cowboys and Green Bay beats the Bears, LaFleur will have the luxury of prepping for a first round matchup as the sixth seed against either the Rams (10-6) or the Buccaneers (9-7), pending what those teams do Sunday.
The Packers would avoid facing off with the second-seeded Eagles (13-3), clearly the least favorable of potential draws.
Obviously, there is a lot to play for. After two quarters of play, however, one scenario could sway the odds to dictate otherwise. Would gaining some postseason momentum be worth the risk of a crushing injury?
Injuries Complicate Decision for Matt LaFleur and Green Bay Packers
The 4-12 Bears have also declared their starting unit a go, so they won’t make it easy on Green Bay (11-5). Nonetheless, the hosts at Lambeau are 10-point favorites. What might be the biggest obstacles to sitting starters, even if LaFleur wanted to, would be the availability issues already hampering the roster.
Thursday’s injury report retained questionable tags on safeties Evan Williams (DNP), Zayne Anderson (DNP), and Javon Bullard (LP); linebacker Quay Walker (DNP); defensive linemen Brenton Cox (DNP) and Devante Wyatt; offensive tackle Andre Dillard (DNP); running back Chris Brooks (LP); and receiver Christian Watson (DNP). The good news is that Wyatt, a full participant in Thursday’s practice, is reportedly good to go. CB Jaire Alexander has been ruled out for the season with a knee injury and had surgery this week.
With a growing number of injuries, LaFleur does not have the full roster at his disposal. Thursday on Pro Football Talk, Mike Florio confirmed there will be seven inactives Sunday.
LaFleur also expressed dissatisfaction with Green Bay’s recent play last week against Minnesota. “I didn’t think it was the cleanest game in any phase. I think there’s value to going out there and playing.”
Certainly there is credence to everything he said, and he is operating under roster limitations.
But for a handful of individuals, under specific circumstances, a second half on the sidelines makes the most sense. RB Josh Jacobs has already said that, while he wants to play, he does not anticipate a regular workload. The injury report listed him as a limited participant Thursday with a wrist issue.
Other players to consider: quarterback Jordan Love, WRs Romeo Doubs and Jordan Reed, tight end Tucker Kraft, defensive end Rashan Gary, CB Keisean Nixon, and as many offensive and defensive linemen as have functional backups.
Halftime Arrives for Green Bay Packers and the Scoreboard Shows Washington Up Big in Dallas
Both the Packers and Commanders (also 11-5) play in the 1:00 pm slate of games, so they should progress at a roughly similar pace. Whether or not Green Bay beats the Bears, a Washington win locks them into the seventh seed. The Commanders are currently favored by 6.5-points vs the Cowboys after opening at -3.5, and are -280 on the moneyline (odds at ESPN Bet, subject to change). Combining either side of the moneyline odds yields a 71.7% implied probability of a Commanders victory. ESPN analytics gives them a 65.3% chance.
While the Cowboys (7-9) may play hard to try and spare coach Mike McCarthy his job, they have no postseason to play for whereas Washington has the 6th seed in their control. If they open up a large first-half lead, the odds of a Cowboys upset may be so slim that LaFleur would be ill-advised to bring his starters back on the field after the break.
Of course, he might want to do so for the sake of establishing a rhythm for the postseason. If the Packers have played a solid first half, however, any additional value would be marginal. Love has already been injured this season, forcing the team to start backup Malik Willis for two games. While that was a while ago, why leave Love and others vulnerable to late misfortune like the Packers QB suffered against the Eagles in Week 1?
The catastrophe of injury would far outweigh any “feel-good” from blowing out a bad opponent. Although LaFleur referred to the potentially detrimental impact of resting his starters three years ago, this is not the same scenario. With no first-round bye, Green Bay will not have a chance fall out of sync during a two week layoff. In fact, depending on how the NFL schedules games, they could be back in action as early as next Saturday.
Being down players makes it hard to run out the full complement of reserves, but it also means that any injury sustained in Week 18 leaves the Packers even thinner for the playoffs.
If halftime leaves little doubt of a Washington win, LaFleur should simply rest key guys instead of chasing a positive vibe.
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