Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love causes plenty of polarizing discussion. Highly ranked in advanced metrics last season, especially in a healthier second half, he clearly has another level to unlock, but there are those who believe he will never get there.
Writing for Yahoo Sports, betting analyst Michael Fiddle should not be counted among them. Instead, he sees value in Love’s 2025 MVP odds, which are priced at +2500. Paradoxically, while Love’s preseason thumb injury does not work to Green Bay’s advantage, it does, Fiddle argues, boost his value as an MVP candidate. By bulking up his box scores, the playcalling adjustments the Packers might make are more likely to work in his favor than against it.
Monster year in the making for Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers?
First off, of course, Love will need to begin the season healthy to avoid starting behind the eight-ball. The team is hopeful that he can participate in Tuesday’s practice, which is a good sign. With Game 1 still 13 days away, Love has time for an adequate recovery and should be available. In that case, any injury angst affecting his present odds will work to bettors’ benefit.
While Love should return to the field to host Detroit on September 7, his thumb could be a lingering issue, at least in the early part of the season. This could prompt the Packers to make slight changes to the offense.
Noting that the injury occurred to Love’s left, non-throwing hand, Fiddle writes, “… sharp NFL analysts suggest his non-throwing hand is primarily used in weak-side run plays. The Packers and Josh Jacobs may run right less frequently early in the season, as these plays require Love to hand off using his surgically repaired left hand.”
This could cause Matt LaFleur to call fewer of these plays, opting instead for designs that do not involve Love’s compromised hand.
“Expect an increase in halfback pitches and gadget wide receiver end-arounds in that direction instead of direct handoffs and alongside a higher volume of throws,” Fiddle says. “Short throws, often used as supplemental run plays, should accumulate yards and boost completion percentage.”
Such freebies could definitely help Love fine tune his stat line for award consideration. Each of his two years as a starter, he has completed around 63-64% of his passes. With the exception of last year’s winner, Josh Allen, who unlike Love is also an impactful runner, all recent MVPs have landed at 66% or higher. Cam Newton in 2015, known more so for his legs than his arm, is the last passer not to hit that mark.
Finding cheap ways to increase Love’s yards per game from 225.9 last year would also serve his case well.
Despite team’s critics, Love has weapons around him
One thing Love has already is a slew of targets, making up what Fiddle calls “a loaded Packers wide receiver room.” Despite Green Bay’s lack of an established No. 1 option, Love does have ample weapons to work with. Particularly if Matthew Golden is everything the team believes he can be, the Packers will have a quarterback-receiver connection that, if not elite, is certainly enviable.
With Golden’s role as a deep-ball target, hooking up for chunk plays would both lump yards onto Love’s passing total and supply highlight reel pizazz, furthering his MVP argument in that way.
The LaFleur factor is also something to consider, as Fiddle notes his acumen as an offensive playcaller and a resume that includes back-to-back MVPs with Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and ’21. After Week 1, the Packers do not have a tough first half of a schedule, meaning that Love should have the chance to accumulate numbers early and give backers a chance to evaluate where he stands in the race, Fiddle says.
“Combining the favorable early schedule, the talent surrounding Love and the non-throwing hand injury potentially leading to more short throws, Love has a chance to dominate statistically and climb the MVP ranks.”
25-1 definitely qualifies as a longshot, which is where the value lies, but even contending for the award would make his doubters look silly by season’s end.
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