May 1st begins what could become the Bucks’ most brutal series throughout this playoffs. Last season the Bucks had a grueling seven-game series against the Brooklyn Nets, and I expect the series against the Celtics to be the same. Each team is coming off pretty dominant first-round victories, and they had identical records and tied regular-season series (2-2). Who or what will be the X-Factor for either team?
Bucks X-Factors
Grayson Allen
With the confirmation that Khris Middleton will miss the entire Eastern Conference semifinals, all eyes turn to Grayson Allen to pick up the offensive slack. Allen could be the biggest X-Factor for the Bucks during this series, and pundits have already made it known in the latest odds, which you can find at sites such as casino.netbet.co.uk. During the Bulls series, Grayson Allen was off to a horrendous start. In 40 minutes played, Allen scored 3 points on 17-0-50 splits. Then, Khris Middleton went down, and the offense was presumed to take a monster hit. Allen took no time stepping up to the plate and filling Middleton’s shoes.
In the three games that Middleton was out, Grayson Allen played out of his mind. He played 27 minutes per game, and averaged 20.7 points on 68-70-100 splits. In fact, Grayson actually outscored every single Bulls player over the final three games of the series. His offense took an incredible jump, and Grayson’s defense improved as well. He had a steal in each of the final three games and a 3 steal game in game 4.
The Bucks will continue to look toward Grayson on the offensive side of the ball to fill the shoes of Khris Middleton. They are big shoes to fill, as Middleton is a two-time All-Star and one of the best 3PT shooters in the league. Allen will be matched up against Defensive Player of the Year, Marcus Smart, and elite defender Jaylen Brown. These matchups will probably be some of the hardest of his career. If he falls back to his game 1 & 2 slumps, the Bucks will find it hard-pressed to come away with a win.
Giannis Free Throw shooting
Giannis’ free throw shooting always seems to be an X-Factor during playoff time. His free throw shooting was at 72% during the regular season, shooting career highs in free throws made and free throws attempted. Unfortunately, his free throw percentage took a dip in the playoffs, where he averaged 68% from the line.
The silver lining here is that most of Giannis’ misses came during Games 1 & 2 against the Bulls. In Games 3, 4 & 5, Giannis shot 77% and did not shoot under 75% once over that three-game stretch. For reference, Giannis had 31 free throw attempts and made 24 over that stretch of games. He left seven points on the floor. Seven may seem like a lot, but Giannis left seven points on the floor in Game 2. Giannis shot 59% at the line in Games 1 & 2, leaving 12 points on the floor.
Giannis has shown us that he can shoot at an elite clip from the line (see Game 6 of the 2021 NBA Finals). At worst, Giannis will have to be an average free throw shooter during the Celtics series. Since Middleton will miss the entire series, the Bucks cannot afford to leave double-digit points on the floor. If Giannis continues his game 3 – 5 trend from the line, the Bucks should not have to worry about his free throw shooting. If he falls back to his games 1-2 free-throw shooting, the Bucks could be in trouble.
Wesley Matthews
When injuries hit the Bucks, Wes Matthews was the guy to step up. He started all five playoff games for the Bucks. The Bucks will need his stifling defense to help slow down Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Matthews has been one of the best defenders throughout the 2022 NBA playoffs thus far. Matthews has a 97 defensive rating and is averaging a steal a game. Against Wes Matthews, defenders are shooting 42% from the field and 36% on two-pointers.
Not only has Wes Matthews’ defense significantly improved during the playoffs, but his offense has skyrocketed. His offensive rating is 123, the second-highest on the team (above Giannis). He is shooting 48% from 3 and 48% from the field. Matthews has also been very consistent with his shooting throughout the playoffs. He has four games at 40% or above from the 3PT range. In only one game, did Matthews shoot under 35% from 3. He shot 33% (1-3) in game 3 against the Bulls. If Matthews continues his consistency, the Bucks will be in a good spot throughout the Eastern Conference semis. If you’re looking for decent odds, there are many online opportunities like at casino.netbet.co.uk.
Celtics X-Factors:
Robert Williams
Robert Williams is one of the best defensive centers in the league. He missed the final seven games of the regular season and the first two games of the Nets series because of a torn meniscus. William was initially expected to miss 4-6 weeks. He came back in just under four weeks (27 days); because of this, the Celtics are easing Williams back. Williams’ minutes did not eclipse 16 minutes in his two games back. Due to the Celtics sweeping the Nets, Williams will have about another week to get fully healthy for the Bucks game.
A fully healthy Robert Williams, paired up with veteran Al Horford is probably one of the few pairings in the NBA that can slow Giannis down. I don’t believe they will be able to entirely stop him, as Giannis averaged 28 points in the two games he played against Robert Williams. Robert Williams’ health is the most significant X Factor for the Celtics because, without him, they will struggle to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Interior defense
Al Horford, Robert Williams, Daniel Theis, Grant Williams, Jayson Tatum, and Marcus Smart. These six players are the best interior defenders on the Celtics. Their job will be to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo. If they are unable to do so and let Giannis impose his will at the rim, the Celtics will be in a lot of trouble. Even without Giannis, the Bucks have other interior threats in Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis. Allowing Giannis free range of the interior will also open up the three-ball for the Bucks, where they’ve had players shooting at an elite clip as of late.
Interior defense is a crucial X-Factor to the Celtics running away with this series. Contain Giannis and the Bucks’ chances of winning drop drastically.
Ime Udoka
Ime Udoka has done a fantastic job as a first-year head coach. He helped the Celtics win 15 more games than last year en route to a two-seed. Defeating the Nets was his first-ever playoff series victory. That first series victory against the Kevin Durant-led Nets is huge. The Celtics had probably the most challenging matchup in the first round for a top seed, and they were the only team to sweep in the first round. That being said, the Bucks are not the Nets. The offensive power is similar between the Nets and the Bucks, but the Bucks have been the best defensive team in the playoffs. The Nets have no defenders.
How Ime Udoka adjusts his offensive game plan against two of the best defenders in the league (Gianni and Jrue) will be critical in the Celtics winning games. It’s not just Jrue and Giannis; however, the entire Bucks’ roster has made a massive defensive improvement from the regular season. Of players who have played 70+ minutes in the playoffs, the Bucks have eight players in the top 10 for defensive rating.
Planning around that defense and then planning a way to slow down Giannis will be a lot of work for Udoka. His game plans and adjustments will be critical X-Factors for the Celtics throughout this series.
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