As far as results go for the first four years of a head coaching career, Matt LaFleur has to be pretty proud. He doesn’t have the playoff results he would like, but winning 13 games each year for the first three years is historically good. 2022 wasn’t ideal but his team had a chance to make the playoffs even with all of the injuries and youth driven mistakes. It has been the start to a head coaching career that every coach dreams of.
It’s important to note that LaFleur did land in a great situation. Not many first time head coaches get a future hall of fame quarterback right away. Not too mention one that is about to find a second wind and win back to back MVP’s. Pair a wide receiver on a hall of fame trajectory on top of it and the offense is immediately in solid shape. The defense and special teams had their issues but overall, Green Bay was an exceptional place for a head coach getting their first opportunity.
It would be counterintuitive to suggest that the Packers, and more specifically Matt LaFleur, would be in better shape without Rodgers right? I don’t think that’s necessarily the case and I have a couple reasons as to why.
Leadership
Depending on who you follow on twitter, you’ll get a different stance on the kind of leader Aaron Rodgers is. Some claim is the kind of teammate that deserves respect and leads by example. Otherwise claim he blames teammates when things go wrong and gives off negative vibes. Regardless of which side you agree with, Rodgers may be the biggest power figure in Green Bay.
When he got his new contract, it was obvious he wanted to not only be compensated fairly, but wanted to see how dedicated the Packers were to him. He wanted to have full control of his future and didn’t want the Packers front office to be able to dump him without it hurting. Even after a few off seasons of debate on whether he would return or retire, Rodgers wanted some say in personnel as well.
How much weight was put into appeasing Rodgers and was it more than going the direction LeFleur thought made the most sense? This is a question we may never know the answer to, but it’s fair to ask. We have seen NFL franchises struggle to find their long term quarterback. It’s not a pretty sight. We’ve seen teams take chances on quarterbacks early in drafts and have it not work out. Having a good QB, not too mention a multi MVP winner, is key to sustained success.
With that said, is it more important to follow the vision of the head coach, or your future hall of fame quarterback? At what point is input from the player too much input? At what point does it actually hurt the construction of the roster and cap situation? If Rodgers is anything, it’s loyal. He has stuck by “his” guys his entire career and it’s become even more evident the older he’s gotten. As good as those guys may have been in their prime, the trust Rodgers has in them may not be enough to warrant a roster spot.
It’s Matt LaFleur’s job to work with GM Brian Gutekunst to put together the best roster possible with the dollars available. That becomes exponentially more difficult when you have to please your star quarterback. A true leader is able to adapt to and embrace new challenges because it benefits the team as a whole. There’s a reason why very few players have ever had an input on roster construction, it typically doesn’t work.
We also can’t overlook how difficult it has to be for LaFleur to lead when the front office bends over backwards for Rodgers. Who is truly in charge? Whose voice is the loudest? Even though LaFleur has never appeared to be overly outspoken, it seems like it has been the Rodgers way or the high way. For all we know, Matt may be fully ok with that, however, it’s tough to bring your style to a franchise when you aren’t viewed as the man in charge.
Offense
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There was a lot talked about in terms of offensive potential when LaFleur was hired. When you are a part of the Mike Shanahan coaching tree, your offensive schemes are going to be viewed in a positive light right off the bat. Shanahans wide-zone scheme has been used by his disciples with incredibly positive results. The Packers offense had been consistent ever since LaFleur took over but the way it succeeded was much different than two other Mike Shanahan disciples many have heard of.
Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan have been two of the best coaches in the NFL since assuming their roles. They have found success on the field and established offensive systems that are very difficult to stop. The fact McVay made a Super Bowl with Jared Goff as his QB is a testament to how reliable the system is. Shanahan has a similar story as San Francisco made to within a game of the Super Bowl with Brock Purdy under center. That same Brock Purdy was the last player drafted in the 2022 draft and won 8 straight games to finish the season and into the playoffs.
Now, not every team is constructed the same. The Packers, Rams and 49ers have been in very different situations over the last couple of seasons. With that said, the Rams just won a title last year with Matt Stafford at the helm and the 49ers have made deep runs the last couple of years without a game changer at QB. The point is, these systems work if done correctly.
I’m sure some reading are thinking “Well the Packers have been successful as well, couldn’t part of that be due to the new LaFleur system?”. At times, the answer would be yes, but overall the Packers have found offensive success in much different ways then the other two franchises. Like I said earlier, personnel has been much different, but so have the implementations of the schemes.
I won’t claim to be an expert in NFL schemes and the nuances between them, but the Packers were a one dimensional team in the three Lafeur led seasons before 2022. I say this not because the schemes were set up that way, but because that’s how Rodgers executed them. While Davante Adams may end up in the hall of fame someday, he provided a crutch for Rodgers. Due to his ability to somehow always work himself open, Rodgers didn’t have to play within the system. As fans, we saw yards and points being put on the board and we didn’t question how it happened.
That was all fine and well during the regular season but in three straight post seasons, we saw that plan fail. In crunch time three playoffs in a row, Rodgers wasn’t able to lead a game winning drive to move his team on. Is it fair to put the losses all on Rodgers? No absolutely not. There is plenty of blame to go around. With that said, the offense was exposed due to Rodgers not trusting the system. When his crutch was double or triple teamed, he didn’t trust any other options.
It’s crazy to think that the Packers were undefeated in games without Adams under LeFleur. Normally when you lose a player of that caliber, the offense struggles. In those cases, Rodgers was forced to use the system more. He spread the ball around and we saw the run game, which has been a strength for years, take over. The 49ers haven’t been consistently good because they throw the ball 40+ times a game. They win by pounding it on the ground and using that to set up the air game.
Has LeFleur been refusing to call games like that or has Rodgers been changing plays at the line of scrimmage to plays he likes better? The previous three seasons it wasn’t a problem but without his go to pass catcher, the offense was tough to watch in 2022. Virtually every play was from the gun, which is far from the Shanahan way. Changing plays at the line normally isn’t a bad thing as the adjustments in the plays are to counter the defensive alignment. If the adjustments aren’t good, however, then it just looks like a quarterback that doesn’t trust the play call.
The Effect of Love
I think we can all agree at this point that Jordan Love isn’t as talented as Aaron Rodgers and chances are he never will be. That doesn’t mean the offense can’t be better than what it has been the last four seasons. We still haven’t truly seen the Matt LeFleur offensive scheme. Part of that is because of limitations in playmakers, but also because of Rodgers not buying into it.
Is there really a doubt that a young quarterback ready for his opportunity would fully embrace and buy into the offensive system of his coach? I would say no. Love has been learning the system for three years and doesn’t have the bad habits Rodgers has picked up over the years. Also, with no Adams on the roster, he can’t afford to fall in love with one receiver. His success hinges on working within the system and trusting LeFleur. We would see a much more diverse offense in terms of personnel groupings and formations.
Are there potential pitfalls with Love? Absolutely. We don’t truly know if he’s good enough to lead an NFL offense week in and week out for an entire season. The beauty of the Matt LeFleur system is Love shouldn’t need the pin point accuracy that we saw from Rodgers for so many years. The offense should inherently create more open throws and allow the playmakers to work in space. It should also allow the run and pass games to support each other as opposed to working against.
We also have to consider how having Love start will take the pressure off the front office. Yes, they’ll have to make smart decisions but they won’t have to balance pleasing their star QB and filling the roster so they stay under the salary cap. They’ll have much more flexibility and can do what they are paid to do, build a championship caliber roster. Assuming the Packers pick up the 5th year option for Love, Green Bay will have 2 seasons with a QB that doesn’t cost an arm and a leg. Sure, the dead cap hit from Rodgers will hurt a bit but overall there is more flexibility.
The thought of losing Rodgers is scary as he has been an enormous part of the Packers being so competitive for so long. I never want to sell short what he has meant to this franchise. With that said, there are examples of teams with great coaches that have had a ton of success with much less talent at the quarterback position. I don’t think we’ll ever know if LeFleur is capable of doing that while Rodgers is under center. It’s time for Matt to be the leader of the team and fully implement an offense that has worked so well for his close peers.
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