Why A Myles Turner Trade Makes Sense For The Bucks

A Myles Turner trade makes sense for the Bucks in a number of ways. Primarily, Turner is an elite rim-protector and the Indiana Pacers are in the midst of a rebuild. It might be time for the two to part ways, and if there’s one move that would allow the Milwaukee Bucks to upgrade their roster and secure their future, it would be trading for the 25-year-old center.

The Trade Proposal

(The original trade idea comes from James Piercey of NBAanalysis.net)

The Indiana Pacers send Myles Turner to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for Brook Lopez, George Hill, a 2024 first-round-pick (Swap – NOP), and a 2028 first-round-pick

Why The Trade Works For Milwaukee

Myles Turner Fits Milwaukee’s Blueprint

What does it take to form a championship-caliber frontcourt? In Milwaukee’s case, it was pairing their MVP rim-runner in Giannis Antetokounmpo with a complimentary stretch-big. Though Lopez was an obvious upgrade over John Henson, nobody could’ve expected just how good the Bucks would become.

Milwaukee went from barely a top ten offense (9th) to breaking the top five (4th) in their first season with Lopez. From there, the Bucks would go on to secure the #1 ranked defense and the #1 seed in back-to-back seasons. Lopez makes his first All Defense team in 2020 and Milwaukee goes on to win their first NBA Finals in 50 years in 2021.

It’s safe to say the Bucks enjoyed a fair bit of success in the three years post trading for Brook Lopez. With the two allowing each other to achieve the best versions of themselves in that time, Milwaukee must ask themselves if they can do the same with Myles Turner.

Turner and Lopez are so swappable because they’re such similar players. They are of similar stature, both being at or around 6’11, 250 pounds. They are of similar skillset, both are bigs who stretch the floor and play drop-coverage on defense. The most significant difference between the two might be their reputations.

Myles Turner Is Elite At What He Does

Unlike Lopez, Turner has always been touted for his defensive prowess. However, the two-time blocks champion hasn’t made an All Defensive team in his entire career. Though Lopez has always been a decent defender, he was mostly known for his offensive ability, averaging 18.6 points per game before his time with the Bucks. It was, arguably, the coaching of Mike Budenholzer which catapulted Lopez onto his first All Defensive team. Considering the consistency at which rim-protectors win Defensive Player Of The Year honors, shoutout to Rudy Gobert, a move to Milwaukee could be huge for Turner’s legacy.

Modest numbers do a poor job reflecting just how impactful Myles can be on the offensive end. Last season, Turner averaged 12.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks per game. Though his three-point percentage has dipped with increased volume, he notched a career-high true shooting percentage (61.5%) in 2022.

Additionally, he finished in the 77th percentile (77.3%) for spot up shooting, compared to Lopez who finished just outside the 54th percentile (53.7%). The younger Turner is also a better athlete than the aging Lopez. Turner finished in the 76th percentile (76.2%) on cuts. He also dominated the offensive glass on putbacks, finishing just outside the 99th percentile (98.8%).

Brook Lopez Isn’t Getting Any Younger

Milwaukee must consider Lopez’s age. Historically, he has not been “injury-prone” or “unhealthy”. In his career, Lopez has played at least 70 games in 10 of his 14 seasons. He’s also played in 73 playoff games, 45 of which have been with the Bucks in the last three years. 14 seasons, 941 games: that’s a lot of mileage on a 7′, 280-pound frame, not to mention Milwaukee’s 2021 Finals run.

The Finals can have a devastating effect on a player’s health. Just ask Anthony Davis, who has been, seemingly, unable to get right since the Lakers’ Finals run in 2020. All those intense games add up and a shortened offseason means less time for rehab. The cost of which, typically, comes in the form of regular-season games. This has been the case with Lopez, who only played 13 games last regular season.

It’s hard to say how far into the playoffs Lopez can go at this point in his career. He’ll be 34 next April with his best years behind him. It’s reasonable to suspect he might not make it through another regular season, let alone a 23-game Finals run. Keeping Lopez could be a risk and it might be worth moving him while his value remains relatively high. If Milwaukee decides this is the case, there is no better replacement at the center position than Myles Turner.

Why The Pacers Should Part With Myles

Brook Lopez Is A Leader

This trade makes sense for Indiana in a number of ways. Unlike Brook Lopez, the Pacers are only getting younger as they dive deeper into their rebuild. Some people think rebuilds are all “out with the old, in with the new” but that’s not really the case. Yes, young assets are what drive a proper rebuild, but veteran leadership can mean the difference between rebuilding and competing. With 73 career playoff games and a championship under his belt, Brook Lopez could be that difference. Indy already has a number of big men, including Goga Bitadze, Jalen Smith, and Isaiah Jackson, who are all under 25. This being said, the experienced Brook Lopez could prove to be a very valuable asset to Indy.

One, Lopez is no stranger to winning basketball. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, the Pacers can rely on him to play valuable minutes. What might come as a surprise is his ability to impart knowledge on Indy’s younger bigs. Lopez is a good leader and great locker room presence. Guys like that have a lot of value on any team and have especially impacted rebuilding teams in recent years. Eric Gordon has filled this role for the Houston Rockets, providing veteran leadership on one of the league’s youngest teams. Despite recently being moved to Portland, Jerami Grant is another good example, spending the entire 2021-2022 season with the Detroit Pistons.

Culture Leads To Contention

Both players command relatively large salaries. Both players garnered a lot of interest from contenders last season, but both players remained on their respective teams past the trade deadline. Despite their high trade-potential, Houston and Detroit valued what these players contributed culturally, more than what they could get back for them via trade.

Nonetheless, if Lopez isn’t exactly what the Pacers are looking for, they could always flip him later down the line. A number of contenders would salivate at the idea of adding an experienced center like Lopez. Even if Indy decided to keep he and George Hill, they are both on expiring contracts, which would free up a solid chunk of cap space for free agency next summer.

More Picks For The Pacers

The most intriguing part of this trade, outside of Turner and Lopez, might be Milwaukee’s draft picks. One could argue Milwaukee would be outbid by suitors offering more immediate draft compensation. However, the value of these picks could be much greater than expected. Though the Pelicans have the right to swap picks in 2024, chances are they’ll end up keeping their own pick.

Zion Williamson, up to this point, is about as injury-prone as they come. He’s played 85 games over the last three seasons, missing the all of last season after having foot surgery. Yes, Pelicans fans have a lot to be excited about, but a lot has to go right for New Orleans before they can be considered anything more than a playin team. Not to mention McCollum’s age and injury history.

Whether New Orleans fails or prevails, they get the better pick in 2024, but this doesn’t mean Indiana would be at a loss. Late first-rounders have become increasingly valuable in recent years. Some notable examples include Jordan Poole, Desmond Bane, Tyrese Maxey and Kevin Porter Jr.: all picked outside of the lottery. The Pacers already have a young core intact and three first-rounders in 2023.

Indy might look to contend sooner rather than later, and if this is the case, they might even prefer to move the 2024 pick for a valuable role-player. As far as trading picks goes, the 2024 pick is interesting, but Milwaukee’s 2028 pick is most exciting. No one can really predict the future, but if something were to go wrong for the Bucks between now and then, the 2028 pick could be extremely valuable. Indy will surely consider all of their options, but the 2028 pick should prove most intriguing to the organization.

Closing Remarks

If Milwaukee’s goal this offseason was to retain their 2021 championship roster, they did so successfully. This being said, that was a year ago and time moves fast in the NBA. Boston added Malcolm Brogdon and Danilo Gallinari. Philly added DeAnthony Melton, Danuel House and ex-Buck PJ Tucker. Brooklyn might have Ben Simmons back next season. The Knicks stole Jalen Brunson from Dallas and might even trade for Donovan Mitchell. In summary, a number of Eastern Conference teams improved their rosters this offseason and Milwaukee might want to make some moves before it’s too late. There are a number of ways to improve their current roster, and if Myles Turner is available, there’s no reason not to pursue him.

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