The Milwaukee Brewers will enter their first off-season without David Stearns at the helm since 2015. Stearns notably stepped down as President of Baseball Operations on October 27th. Now serving as an advisor, the General Manager Matt Arnold will be taking over his duties.
The question that Brewers’ fans are dying to have answered is what the new plan under Arnold looks like. He takes over more control of the team during a mixed bag free agency. There are some considerable names that will be thrown around, like Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson. However, a significant amount of the free agent pool will have some sort of risk attached to them. The Brewers may need to consider two players in particular who may not live up to the contract.
Evaluation
These players are by no means “busts” nor are they dangerous for teams to look at. Rather, there is concern about their upcoming season based on the players age and their career production, as well as the consistency of the player. The Brewers should negotiate with both players regardless of the risk due to their talent and potential value to the team.
A New Center Field Star Ahead?
Brandon Nimmo would probably go back in time and change history if he could. Between the unfortunate injuries and the struggles at the plate, the former first round draft pick certainly hasn’t had the easiest ride. However Nimmo is realistically the best outfielder available, outside of Aaron Judge, of course. The other unrestricted free agents that contend are Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Haniger, as well as Wil Myers who has a club option with San Diego worth $20 million.
Nimmo could be a target for the Brewers, but the real risk lies in the market. Currently, Nimmo is projected to make upwards of $20-22 million a year, according to Spotrac. It will be difficult for many teams to swing a contract of that size for a career .269 hitter with only two seasons of double digit home runs. The statistic that stands out the most for Nimmo is his 7.89 WAR over the last two seasons, and a career WAR of 16.45.
The 29-year old has only played 100+ games twice in his career, mainly due to injuries. Paying Nimmo means the team will be betting on his health and incredible defense for a hefty amount. Given the right price, Nimmo could be a great addition to the Brewers, especially in regards to the hole that center field was for the team in 2022. Although, he likely won’t leave the board for less than $18 million given his potential and the comparable contracts Scott Boras has gotten for his other clients.
The Emergence of Another Lefty
It may seem odd for someone with a 2.89 ERA across nearly 200 innings to sit in the free agent pool. Unfortunately for Martin Perez, this has been the case across his 10 year career. Perez has always shown signs at the right time that he has potential to be a top of the rotation starter. His career 4.43 ERA seems like something no team would want to take on but like many pitchers Perez may have needed time to settle down. Now, the lefty is set to hit the market with the Brewers eyeing to improve the team.
Realistically, Perez is one of the higher risk free agents because the flashes have been there, but the consistency hasn’t. 2022 was the first season Perez managed to finish with an ERA under three. He has never had an injury issue or a velocity issue, but rather a problem with control. The lefty market this year is full of pitchers who may or may not replicate what they have done. Clayton Kershaw, Carlos Rodon, Mike Clevinger, and Michael Wacha all sit in the same boat, where teams are hesitant of whether or not the production can be replicated again.
Shutting Down Divisional Rivals?
The Milwaukee Brewers currently have two left-handed starting pitchers, Eric Lauer and Aaron Ashby. The teams the Brewers will play the most each year are the Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates, and Reds since they all play in the same division. Against left-handed pitching, the teams rank 28th, 17th, 27th, and 18th in batting average and production, respectively. The season ranks from their divisional rivals in 2022 is not a call for an abundance of lefties, but Perez has the highest potential to sit on the market the longest. The Brewers would take on a significant risk, but can also propel their pitching staff forward.
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1 Comment
He’s the problem, no motivation, poor decisions, been there to long.