Green Bay Packers regress in new simulation
The Green Bay Packers have high expectations heading into the regular season. But one simulator thinks the Packers have too many obstacles to keep the same pace as last season. The Packers retain Aaron Rodgers, who will look to compete for a fifth MVP award. The Packers’ defense will be one of the best units in the league this year.
Rodgers will need to overcome a porous wide receiver room that the team is actively trying to scheme around. The NFC North should net the Packers five or six wins. The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions will be bad. The Minnesota Vikings have a new coaching staff. The Packers should be on their way to matching their previous three-season record of 13-3.
One simulation is pumping the brakes on the Packers’ momentum this season. The Athletic did a simulation of each regular season game 100,000 times for every NFL team. The simulator has the Packers underperforming from last year at just 11 wins. Per The Athletic:
The Packers have won 13 games in each of the past three regular seasons, but there will be a regression at some point, right? Right?! Maybe a small one, but nothing significant. The wide receiver corps is diminished but the Packers should still field a stalwart offensive line, running game and defense. They also have the back-to-back MVP at quarterback and a favorable 2022 schedule. I’ll go 12 wins for the Packers, so take the over. — Matt Schneidman
Packers will win more than 11 games
Barring injury, the Packers should beat the prediction of the simulation. They have way too much talent for most teams on their schedule to match. Rodgers’ skill will tip the odds in the Packers’ favor for any close game.
If the wide receivers show improvement from training camp, then this team might have the potential to surpass 13 wins in 2022. Head coach Matt LaFleur wants his chance to show his genius this year. A 13-win Packer team should get LaFleur the coach of the year honor.