Over the next several months, there are going to be a lot of articles written, videos made, and podcasts recorded regarding the direction the Green Bay Packers should go in for the 2022 season. After multiple heartbreaking playoff losses and an all-in approach in 2021, the Packers are at a fork in the road.
Before anything happens leading up to the new league year, they will be around $40,000,000 over the salary cap. This was always going to be the consequence of pushing back contracts to return the vast majority of the team that barely lost to Tampa Bay in the NFC Championship game last year. We have seen organizations manipulate contracts and find ways to shrink cap numbers without hindering the roster too much. However, this offseason feels different.
Lots of Questions, But Few Answers for the Packers
It was well-advertised before the season started that this was, for lack of a better term, the “last dance” for Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers. Davante’s contract is up and Rodgers must decide if he wants to continue playing – with or without the Packers – or retire. If he chooses to stay in the league, that leaves Green Bay with a huge decision.
The offseason leading up to the “last dance” had plenty of questions marks in itself. Was Rodgers going to come back to the Packers, or go elsewhere? Was he going to retire while still performing at an elite level? Obviously, Rodgers did return and had a season worthy of earning his fourth MVP award. But with that being said, the situation with the front office was still a bit unclear. Was Rodgers looking for a trade after this season? If he performed well, was he expecting a large extension? Is retirement a serious option for him?
As Packers fans have learned over the years, Rodgers isn’t your normal professional athlete. That was never more obvious than this season, of course, but even before that, signs were there. This article isn’t about his ideologies or controversial statements. Instead, it’s about Rodgers’ future with the Packers. Did his overthinking and lack of trust cost the Packers back-to-back-to-back NFC Championship game appearances?
What Should the Packers Do?
There isn’t a realistic Packers fan out there who thinks this team is better without Aaron Rodgers. Even though he’s 38 years old, he’s still playing at a high level and putting up numbers that 95% of quarterbacks that enter the league could only dream of. Rodgers is, without a doubt, a future Hall-of-Famer. He will also go down as one of the – if not the most – prolific QBs of all time.
But with all of that said, it may be time to move on to Jordan Love. A lot of factors go into why I’m saying this. For one, the Packers don’t have the cap space available to give Rodgers a huge new contract. Before he were to ink anything new, his cap hit will be around $20,000,000 from money pushed back and a league minimum salary of $1,120,000. Even if Rodgers wants to take a more team-friendly deal, his cap hit will be large no matter what.
Not only is the cap a concern, but there’s also his playoff results. There can never be a complaint regarding Rodgers’ regular season success. He has continually put up big numbers, been an efficient passer, and kept the ball out of harm’s way. The issue is, things change quite a bit in the playoffs. Although he’s still relatively solid, we don’t see the big numbers or games from Rodgers like we did in earlier postseasons. For instance, during the Packers’ Super Bowl run in 2010.
His Achilles heel in the last two playoff games has been his inability to play within the system and trust teammates that aren’t names Adams or Jones to catch the ball. We saw it in the red zone of the final Packers’ drive against Tampa Bay last year. It was also obvious virtually all game last weekend against San Francisco. After the Marcedes Lewis fumble and Josiah Deguara drop, Rodgers almost refused to consider throwing to anyone else.
After seeing this become a trend in big games, are the Packers better off moving on from Rogers? In the short term, probably not. We know Jordan Love isn’t nearly as good as Aaron Rodgers yet, and likely never will be. However, the Packers may need to take a step back in order to take a step or two forward.
No matter how good of a coach Matt LaFleur is, the likelihood of the Packers winning 13 games without Rodgers next season is very small. Yes, a full offseason and training camp as the number-one guy would do Love wonders. But he won’t have the skill and polish as a sure-fire Hall-of- Famer still playing great football.
Rodgers says he doesn’t want to be apart of a rebuild, but I don’t see a rebuild happening in Green Bay. Even with cap casualties and potentially losing Adams and Rodgers, this team has great pieces. The defense will still be solid. If they’re healthy, the offensive line will be top-notch. A very good running game led by Jones and Dillon will be the offensive focal point. And without Davante, the passing game may finally find some balance.
If Rodgers decides to retire or accept a trade, the Packers could be in even better shape. A trade would bring in assets to improve the team now and in the future – whether it be high-end draft picks, young NFL talent, or both. If Rodgers retires, the Packers gain a large amount of cap relief. Either way, the team will benefit in some way outside of overall talent under center.
Looking Forward
If the 2022 season is one filled with the ups-and-downs that come with starting a young QB, that’s fine. Imagine a scenario where the Packers trade Rodgers, receive draft picks in return, get a solid pick of their own after a rough 2022, and come back loaded with young talent in 2023. I think one season of retooling to set up a bright future is worth it, if the alternative is constant and inevitable heartbreak in the playoffs.
This will continue to be a great debate until we gain clarity on what Rodgers decides for his future. Then we’ll have to wait to see what the Packers choose for their future. Regardless, this franchise is in a decent spot. Either Rodgers comes back and Green Bay continues to run the division, or he leaves and the Packers move forward with a young quarterback. The latter option equals more cap space than expected, or a lot of opportunities to fill the roster with young, cheap talent.
Many fans and experts find it crazy to not want Rodgers back, and I don’t blame them. I can’t say I hate the idea of him returning in hopes of him getting his playoff magic back. But I prefer to look at the big picture and down the road. The NFC North division is still very winnable with Love and could be for the next decade or more, if the Packers’ front office plays their cards right.
For More Wisconsin Sports Content:
Follow me on Twitter @RNGDrew and us @WiSportsHeroics! To read more of our articles and keep up to date on the latest in Wisconsin sports, click here. Also, check out our merch store for some amazing WSH merchandise!
