In Week 15, the Green Bay Packers (9-3-1) face a difficult test in traveling to Denver (11-2) to take on a Broncos team that has won 10 straight. On the flip side, though, the Packers will be a challenge for the Broncos. In particular, Green Bay’s defense could prove to be a kryptonite for second-year quarterback Bo Nix as he tries to navigate DC Jeff Hafley’s zone-heavy scheme.
Packers have formula for success against Nix, Broncos
While he has done the job for a very good team, Nix is not an elite QB. He enters Week 15 with 19 touchdowns to nine interceptions, with a middling QBR of 55.9 and a subpar passer rating of 86.4. If the Packers do enough on offense (and the Denver defense is a force in its own right), they may be able to leave it up to the defense to put the clamps on Denver’s Nix-led operation.
“The Packers are the sort of team that Bo Nix really struggles with,” ESPN’s Ben Solak said on the Week 15 preview edition of the Mina Kimes Show podcast. “80% zone coverage from the Packers, which is the fourth-highest in football. They’re fifth-best by yards per play, sixth-best in success rate. This is a very, very good zone team.”
Overall against the pass this season, the Packers have not graded out all that well by EPA per play, a key advanced metric for holistically evaluating team performance. By that measure, they rank just 18th in the league. They are 14th in total EPA and 13th in success rate. They grade out as an average to slightly above average pass defense.
Against the Broncos, it’s more about schematic matchup. That element of the equation could have Nix looking at a long day trying to dissect the Packers’ coverages. Meanwhile, Micah Parsons will be bearing down on him as he chases a new career-high in sacks.
“Nix’s splits this year, [man coverage versus zone], are pretty austere. [He goes from] 0.24 EPA per dropback down to 0.03. Man-to-zone success rate goes from 51% to 41%. And this one, which I thought was really interesting and surprising, completion percentage over expectation. He is negative 6% against zone. He is positive 4% against man.”
That kind of discrepancy isn’t what you typically see from quarterbacks in the mold of Nix, Solak noted. Instead of carving up zone coverage, however, Nix can’t seem to crack the code.
Turnover concerns make Nix uncomfortable – and counterproductive – vs zone looks
Solak broke it down further. “When you go and watch the film, you see a player who struggles to place the ball in catchable places because he’s really worried about interceptable footballs. So he will overreact to coverage windows. He will put the ball too far into the dirt. He’ll put the ball too far in front of wide receivers because he really wants to space them away from where those defenders are.”
That bodes well for Hafley, the secondary, and the rest of the Green Bay unit.
“This is a Packers defensive strength against a Bo Nix weakness. Also, specifically, Bo really seems to struggle against sim pressures, against blitzes from depth and the guys dropping off the line, changing the picture post-snap. Disguise coverages this year: -0.02 EPA per dropback, one touchdown to three picks, 5.3 yards per attempt.”
Winning in Denver isn’t something the Packers have done much of lately, but they have a strong recipe for success to get out of dodge with a W this Sunday. At this point, it’s all about individual defenders following assignments, being in the right spot at the right time, and executing the plays.
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